This week's earnings and economic calendar (11/25~11/29) focus on U.S. economic indicators and year-end business battles! Towards a bullish year-end market?
This week's Japanese stock market...amid the focus on the Russia-Ukraine situationandbecome factors influencing the movement of the dollar. If these indicators fall below expectations, the risk of a weak dollar and a strong yen is likely to increase. In particular,is expected to rebound slightly. With the completion of the US presidential election and the earnings reports of Japanese and American companies, there is a lack of new materials, butDevelopments that are easily influenced by economic indicators and the trends of US stocks are expected. especially on the 29th, as Black Friday marks the start of the year-end shopping season. expectations that the year-end shopping season will support the rise of US stocks, making it difficult for Japanese stocks to decline. At the same time, there are expectations for further improvement in the US economy under the new administration, but concerns about tariffs continue to weigh on domestically focused export stocks. with a sense of comfort for buying domestic demand stocks gaining further attention. in particular, companies benefiting from inbound demand and price increases are expected to see improvements in their performance as supporting factors.
The US market this week will be closed for Thanksgiving on the 28th. On the 29th, it will enter the year-end shopping season with Black Friday. The three major US indices have all reached record highs in November amid the stock market rally, and the year-end shopping season is expected to be prosperous. Black Friday is a significant event marking the start of the year-end shopping season in the US, and it is a critical period for the retail trade industry. Additionally, this week $Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF.US)$、 $Best Buy (BBY.US)$、 $Macy's (M.US)$Retailers such as these are scheduled to announce their earnings. The performance of these companies is likely to attract investors' attention. In addition, the tech giant $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$、 $Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$、 $HP Inc (HPQ.US)$is also scheduled to announce earnings.
The usa market this week also,Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE Core Price Index is expected to increase by 0.2% compared to the previous month, expanding from the 0.1% increase in May. If inflation slows significantly, the dollar is likely to face selling pressure due to a decrease in long-term US interest rates.the FOMC minutes from the November meetingwill be released.も公表され、12月会合での利下げの可能性を探る動きが強まりそうだ。国内では全国消費者物価指数（CPI）の先行指標とされる東京都区部CPI（11月）が29日に発表される。生鮮食品を除くコアCPIは前年同月比2％上昇と、10月の1.8％から伸び率が拡大すると予想されている。
This week's USD/JPY exchange rate is likely to be influenced by developments in the Ukraine situation and the monetary policy trends in Japan and the USA. Continued caution is warranted due to the instability surrounding Ukraine and Russia, while speculation about the Bank of Japan's rate hike in December could support buying the yen. While there is downward pressure on the yen, a stronger dollar is possible depending on US economic indicators. In particular, the results of the November US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and the October PCE deflator are being closely watched, as these are expected to influence the movement of US interest rates.
1.日経平均は2週続落、NVDA決算通過
2.米国市場、S&P500の2025年見通しで強気維持
3.ビットコイン、過去最高値更新で0.1 millionドルに迫る
Nvidia's earnings report continues to be optimistic, but the market's response is lukewarm with the 'NVIDIA Festival' once again ending in disappointment.
Predicting the outcome of the year-end retail battle - The light and shadow revealed by the US retail industry earnings.
Predicting the outcome of the year-end retail battle - The light and shadow revealed by the US retail industry earnings.
Last week in the Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei average fell for the second consecutive week by 359.06 yen (0.93%) to 28,283.85 yen, lacking clues as it passed through the earnings season, and influenced by external factors such as trends in the US market.
In the US market, despite a lackluster start as the post-election rally stalled last week, the three major US indexes ended the week with over 1% gains. Of note, the rise last week was due to the quarterly earnings announced on Wednesday.achieved without support from Nvidia.Last week was in the US. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ garnered significant attention, but the stock price response to the content was subdued. While there may be some dissatisfaction with the fact that the results did not exceed market expectations, at least this time, the growth expectations for Nvidia and AI companies were not shattered by this earnings report.but the stock market's reaction to the content that emerged was relatively subdued. The results, which exceeded expectations, were not well received to that extent. Dissatisfaction Although there are concerns, at least in this earnings report, the growth expectations for Nvidia and AI generated by Nvidia did not collapse. On the other hand, last week, Ukraine attacked Russian territory using long-range weapons made in the US and UK, and Russia responded by attacking strategic points in Ukraine with new medium-range ballistic missiles.Geopolitical risks are increasing.。
Bullish outlook for the USA market and S&P500 in 2025.
As the year-end approaches, many major Wall Street banks areannouncing the 25-year outlook for the US stock market.According to the initial forecasts of major banks, strategists are projecting that the US $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$will deliver strong returns in 2025. For investors who have already experienced the historic bull market, it is a positive material to expect further growth.anticipating further gainsIt has become so.
・ゴールドマン・サックス：S&P500が2025年末に6,500ポイントに達すると予測。注目すべきは、David Kostin氏が率いるゴールドマンのグループが、2025年には米国の超大型株「M7」の相対的なアウトパフォーマンスが2017年以降で最も小さくなると予測している点だ。これにより、AIリーダーのエヌビディアとiPhoneメーカーのアップルが牽引する「M7」は、これまで続いていた市場を上回るリターンのトレンドが逆転する見込みである。
・モルガン・スタンレー：S&P500の12カ月先の目標株価を6,500ポイントに設定。Wilson氏は、上昇の要因として、米国経済の成長勢いの強化とFRBによる追加利下げを挙げた。
・UBS：S&P500が2025年末に6,600ポイントに達すると予測。
・BMOキャピタル・マーケッツ： S&P500が2025年末に6,700ポイントに達すると予測。
・エバーコアISI：2025年半ばまでにS&P500の目標値を6,600に設定。
Regarding last week's earnings reports.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$の第4四半期の売上高見通しが予想を上回ってはいるものの、前回、前々回のような予想から大きく上方乖離した強い見通しでもなかったことから、やや、物足り無さも出ているようだが、フアンCEOは、Hopperチップの需要とBlackwellチップへの期待について「Incredibly strong."CFO stated that they will start shipping Blackwell chips from the fourth quarter. Demand is expected to exceed supply over the next few quarters next year.And predict.
Several important earnings reports were announced from major U.S. retailers.It will be insightful material on the health of the economy and consumer spending trends as the year-end shopping season approaches.。
$Walmart (WMT.US)$Revenue and profits for the third quarter exceeded expectations, once again surpassing revenue forecasts.upward revisionHowever, in response to that, there was a rush to buy stocks that benefit from low interest rates. $Target (TGT.US)$Due to the slowdown in sales growth and inventory costs exceeding expectations, quarterly profits fell significantly below expectations, leading to a significant downward revision in the full-year outlook.Significantly downward revised.and lowered the sales and profit outlook for the year-end shopping season. After the earnings report, the stock price dropped by more than 21%.Analysts believe that the weak earnings of Target are supporting the scale superiority of Walmart.The stock price dropped by more than 21% after the earnings report.According to the analysis, the lackluster earnings of Target are supporting the scale advantage of Walmart.So far, earnings reports from other retail companies in the USA have exceeded financial estimates, Consumers continue to show a cautious attitude, expecting even bigger discounts.IsAs they head into the upcoming holiday shopping season, both Walmart and Target have expressed optimistic outlooks.Is
In addition, $Snowflake (SNOW.US)$Third-quarter earnings surpassed expectations, leading to an increase in this fiscal year's product revenue guidance. As a result, the stock price rose more than 32%.I did.
Bitcoin hits a new all-time high! MSTR continues to soar.
$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$Was last week.exceeds 9%and is risingreaching 0.099 million dollars, updating its all-time highIt is an important milestoneapproaching 0.1 million dollars.On Thursday, SEC Chairman Gar Gensler indicated his intention to resign in January next year, opening up the path for improved relations between the cryptocurrency industry and major regulatory agencies in Washington. At the same time, Bitcoin ETF options were listed on Nasdaq on Tuesday, providing new means for trading, hedging, and speculating on Bitcoin. Additionally, it has been reported that the Trump administration is considering establishing a position specializing in cryptocurrency policy at the White House. Stocks related to Bitcoin rates $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$have continued their significant surge this weekand their market capitalization temporarily exceeded $100 billion.Stock prices rose by 12% on the 18th, 11% on the 19th, and 10% on the 20th, but on the 21st, they declined by 16% following Citron Research's short sell declaration.
Stock prices rose by 12% on the 18th, 11% on the 19th, and 10% on the 20th, but on the 21st, they fell by 16% following Citron Research's short sell declaration, and rebounded by 6% on the 22nd.
is consideringMSTR stocks to be overheatedand that its volume is completely detached from Bitcoin fundamentals.There is a positive cycle between MSTR and bitcoin investment.Positive loop.Exists.and pointed out.
As the stock price of MSTR rises, the amount of shares that CEO Michael Saylor can sell increases. The more shares he sells, the more Bitcoin he can purchase. And as he buys more Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin rises, leading to further increase in the price of MSTR shares.
Following MSTR, the Tokyo market announced this week that it will issue 1.75 billion yen in 1-year corporate bonds. $Metaplanet (3350.JP)$Last week, walmart announced the issuance of a 1-year ordinary corporate bond totaling 1.75 billion yen.The Tokyo market announced that it will issue 1.75 billion yen in 1-year corporate bonds this week. The funds raised will all be used for purchasing Bitcoin.。
Last week's US economic indicators were mixed.
・The number of initial jobless claims decreased to 0.213 million, reaching the lowest level since April. However, the number of continuing claims increased by 0.036 million due to short-term impacts such as Boeing's strike and hurricanes, reaching 1.908 million after seasonal adjustments. This is the highest level in three years and exceeds Wall Street's expectations for the increase.
・The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in November was generally weak, dropping significantly from +10.3 to -5.5, well below expectations.
・Following the decrease in mortgage rates in the previous month in the USA, homebuyers entered the market, leading to a 3.4% increase in existing home sales in October compared to the previous month, marking a significant growth since February. Home prices also hit a record high, recording year-on-year increases for 16 consecutive months. In addition, existing home inventory in October increased by 19.1% compared to the same month last year.
According to CME's FedWatch Tool, traders have priced in a 41% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the December FOMC meeting.・Rising from approximately 28% a week ago.I did.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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