NVDA
NVIDIA
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Tesla
-- 259.160 PLTR
Palantir
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Amazon
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Apple
-- 222.130 This week's earnings and economic calendar (11/4~11/8) tumultuous US presidential election and US FOMC meeting may bring storms to the Japanese and American markets.
This week's Japanese stock marketAttention is also necessary for factors such as weak seasonal factors and the approaching US presidential election.やthe US FOMCand be prepared for Expected to be a volatile developmentis expected. Especially depending on the results of the local presidential election on the 5th, there is a possibility that the market will become very volatile. If Republican candidate Mr. Trump wins and the dollar strengthens while the yen weakens, it would be a positive factor for Japanese stocks. However, if it becomes a close battle and it takes time to determine the winner, the market may dislike the uncertainty.
Furthermore, the U.S. presidential and congressional elections, which will close voting on the 5th local time, will begin to transmit early state exit poll results around the opening time on the 6th Japan time. Therefore, Japanese stock trades will be in a live stateand depending on the situation, there may be a significant market turmoil. Also, from November 5th, the trading hours of the Tokyo Stock Exchange will be extended by 30 minutes.In addition, the closing time will be changed from 3:00 p.m. to 3:30 p.m. As a result, some companies are also adjusting their earnings report times. $Honda Motor (7267.JP)$や $Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$earnings reports from companies such asexpected to be digested during trading hoursIn Japan, $Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011.JP)$や $Nintendo (7974.JP)$, Toyota Motor, $Tokyo Metro (9023.JP)$、 $Nippon Telegraph & Telephone (9432.JP)$As earnings reports from various companies are being released one after another,there is an expectation that individual stock picking activities will become more active.The U.S. stock market is also expected to be significantly influenced by the results of the presidential election.
Especially if it becomes a "triple red", with the Republican Party monopolizing the Presidency and majorities in both houses, there is a possibility of stock prices rising due to the expected rapid progress in tax cuts and deregulation advocated by Trump. However, attention is also focused on how the bond market will react to President Trump's fiscal expansion measures, and there is a risk that the rise in long-term interest rates could restrain the rise in stock prices.Triple redEspecially if it becomes a "triple red", with the Republican Party monopolizing the Presidency and majorities in both houses, there is a possibility of stock prices rising due to the expected rapid progress in tax cuts and deregulation advocated by Trump. However, attention is also focused on how the bond market will react to President Trump's fiscal expansion measures, and there is a risk that the rise in long-term interest rates could restrain the rise in stock prices.there is a risk that the increase in long-term interest rates could restrain the rise in stock prices.。
On the other hand, Morgan Stanley has stated that the US stock market has not fully priced in Mr. Trump's victory.As some signs, such as the rapid rise in Bitcoin prices and the increase in US bond yields, suggest that market participants are starting to factor in Mr. Trump's victory, but analysts believe that this prediction is not fully reflected in the US stock market.even if he wins, it is not necessarily certain that the sectors that benefit will rally.Regarding the USD/JPY, if the dollar strengthens and the yen weakens with Mr. Trump's victory, and in the event of a "Triple Red", there is a possibility of testing 155 yen. On the other hand, if Ms. Harris wins, there is a possibility that risk-off yen buying will progress, and the yen could strengthen to 148 yen.and from the following 6th to 7th, the FOMC meeting is scheduled. A 0.25% rate cut is likely at this FOMC meeting, against the backdrop of the strong US economy.
and from the following 6th to 7th, the FOMC meeting is scheduled.FOMCA 0.25% rate cut is likely at this FOMC meeting, against the backdrop of the strong US economy.Future rate cut paceやHow does Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve in the usa, view the economic situation in the usa? 'which led to'FocusIf further rate cuts are suggested, there may be a possibility of a weaker dollar and stronger yen, which could have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market. Additionally, if the speculation of interest rate being kept unchanged at the December meeting grows, it may also have an impact on the market as a dollar buying factor.
Regarding the earnings reports in the USA, this week, $Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$や $Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$、 $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$、 $Palantir (PLTR.US)$Earnings reports are scheduled for various companies. Market expectations are that Palantir Technologies Inc.'s third-quarter revenue will be $704 million (up 26.07% year-on-year), with an EPS of $0.04 (up 40.67% year-on-year).
1. The Nikkei Average sees a slight rebound after 3 weeks, fluctuating due to concerns over the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike.
2. The Dow and S&P 500 indices see the first monthly decline since April, ending in wild fluctuations.
3. Earnings announcements from 5 US tech companies raise market anxiety over AI investments.
4. Bitcoin shows signs of volatility ahead of the US presidential election.
Strong consumer spending supports the US economy, but warning signals are sent to the market as US employment data falls below expectations.
Last week in the Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei average rebounded for the first time in three weeks, up 139.75 yen (0.37%) from the previous week to 30,8053.67. Expectations of cooperation between the ruling and opposition parties following the major defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party in the lower house election last week led to a rise in the Japanese stock market in the first half. However, in the second half, there was a softening due to awareness of the Bank of Japan's additional interest rate hikes, leading to a back and forth development. Although the policy interest rate was kept unchanged at the Bank of Japan meeting, Governor Ueda assessed the overseas economic situation and price trends.The expression 'there is no time flexibility' will not be used in the future.As a result, the market became conscious of a potential rate hike at the next meeting in December or January next year, leading to a sharp drop in the dollar-yen exchange rate. Following unexpectedly weak US employment statistics, the dollar-yen rate plunged even further, temporarily dropping to the 151 yen level.to the 151 yen levelfell to 151 yen.
This weekBitcoin surpassed $73,000 again for the first time in six months last week, leading up to the upcoming US presidential election.Bitcoin's call options trading has been active recently according to the cryptocurrency trading platform Derive.xyz. As per option data, Bitcoin's price has seen intense trading activity.There is a one-third chance of a fluctuation of more than 10% on the day of the US presidential election on November 5th.There.Gold continued to hit record highs last week.Of note is the market's view that both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris's presidency is seen as a positive factor for cryptocurrency and gold. Analysts state that geopolitical risks, the US debt crisis, and shifts in monetary policy support a bullish gold market. In addition, next year's US Congress is likely to become the most cryptocurrency-supportive congress in history, as both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris have expressed support for cryptocurrencies.It is considered that both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris becoming presidents would be positive for cryptocurrency and gold. Analysts cite geopolitical risks, the US debt crisis, and changes in monetary policy as factors supporting a bullish trend in gold. Moreover, the next US Congress is expected to be the most supportive of cryptocurrency in history, given the expressed support for cryptocurrencies by both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris.Analysts believe that both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris becoming president would be beneficial for cryptocurrency and gold. They mention that geopolitical risks, the US debt crisis, and changes in financial policy are factors that support a bullish market for gold. Additionally, the next US Congress is expected to be the most cryptocurrency-friendly Congress in history, as both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris have expressed support for cryptocurrencies.There is a possibility that the next US Congress will be the most supportive of cryptocurrencies in history, given the expressed support for cryptocurrencies by both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris..
In the US stock market, last week, mega-cap tech companies announced earnings reports one after another.
The first one to announce $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$earnings report showed a growth rate in cloud revenue that exceeded expectations, and total revenue also unexpectedly accelerated,giving a surprise to the market. As a result, temporarily easing investors' "AI concerns". However, this was followed bywas followed by subsequent announcements. $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$and $Meta Platforms (META.US)$The earnings reports ofSent a chill through the market。
Microsoft and Meta's performance was not that bad, as both revenue and net profit exceeded financial estimatesIn particular, $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Total cloud revenue exceeded expectations by a 22% increase over the previous year, and AI boosted Azure's growth by 12 points. However, what frightened investors wasMicrosoft's fourth-quarter AI revenue and expenditure outlookAzure revenue in the fourth quarter of MicrosoftDecelerationAs expected. In addition, after a capital expenditure increase of about 79% year-on-year in the third quarter, it is also expected to increase in the fourth quarter.Expected to increase compared to the previous period.。 $Meta Platforms (META.US)$The earnings report also,Has fueled investor concerns about overinvestment in AI.Reality Labs, which handles metaverse and AI business, reported a loss of $4.42 billion in the third quarter, and Meta forecasts that the operating loss in the same department will continue to increase significantly.Will continue to significantly increase its operating loss" and warned. Despite the growing losses, Meta continues to invest large amounts of funds in AI, "Significant increase in capital expenditure in 2025. expressed. According to J.P. Morgan's estimate, capital expenditures for Google, Microsoft, and Meta in the third quarter totaledIn the third quarter, revenue reached an all-time high compared to the same period. .
$Apple (AAPL.US)$however, revenue in China underperformed, and net profit decreased due to a substantial additional tax levy ordered by the European Union court in September.The third quarter's revenue reached an all-time high. However, revenue in China underperformed, and net profit decreased due to a substantial additional tax levy ordered by the European Union (EU) court in September.There is a possibility that the sales growth will slow down in the current quarter.. $Amazon (AMZN.US)$The third quarter profit.indicating the strong performance of the US economy. Meanwhile, the released price index shows a trend of inflation deceleration,Cloud business has grown rapidly.
According to analysts, the sharp drop of the US large-cap stock 'M7' was not due to poor earnings, as the revenue and profit were very good. However, considering the current stock price and variation, their performance outlook did not meet market expectations.。
On Thursday, the US large-cap stock 'M7' plummeted across the board in earnings reports, causing a tremor in the US stock market.The U.S. stock market in October also ended in extreme volatility.The S&P 500 and Nasdaq struggled with the market reaction after Big Tech earnings, with Nasdaq recording its largest single-day decline since September 3rd.All three major indices experienced a monthly decline.and Dow and S&P 500 posted monthly losses since April.As the election day approaches and investor concerns rise,ended trading at high levels not seen since August 7th. $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$Earnings of U.S. mega-cap stocks outside of the "M7" were also mixed.
Earnings of U.S. mega-cap stocks outside of the "M7" were also mixed.
・ $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$Although the annual revenue forecast for AI chips has been upwardly revised,the fourth quarter guidance is lackluster.Some analysts believe that,the significant demand for AI chips from customers cannot be met due to constraints in the supply chain,and pointed out.
・ $Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$the third quarter revenueBelow financial estimates, the sales of diet drugs did not perform well,and significantly lowered the full-year profit outlook[AgroScience Segment] Herbicides saw a significant decrease due to the sales period being brought forward compared to the previous year for agricultural land and golf courses, but revenues increased due to strong demand for railroads and home gardening.
・ $Intel (INTC.US)$Datacenter and AI revenue for the third quarter, as well asthe fourth quarter EPS forecast exceeded expectations.。
・ソーシャルメディア企業の $Reddit (RDDT.US)$and $Snap Inc (SNAP.US)$の株価が決算後にそれぞれ41%、15%以上急騰。前者は史上初の黒字を達成し第4四半期の収益は予想を上回ると発表、後者は3四半期の業績が市場予想を上回り、0.5 billionドルの自社株買いプログラムを発表した。・ $Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$the third quarter revenueBelow financial estimates, the sales of diet drugs did not perform well,and significantly lowered the full-year profit outlook[AgroScience Segment] Herbicides saw a significant decrease due to the sales period being brought forward compared to the previous year for agricultural land and golf courses, but revenues increased due to strong demand for railroads and home gardening.
・ $Intel (INTC.US)$Datacenter and AI revenue for the third quarter, as well asthe fourth quarter EPS forecast exceeded expectations.。
Last week's US economic indicators indicate that the US economy is performing well.
・In September, the JOLTS job openings in the U.S. decreased significantly to 7.443 million, well below the expected 7.98 million, marking the lowest level in over 3 years. The previous value for August was revised downward from 8.04 million to 7.86 million. This suggests a slowdown in the U.S. labor market.
・In October, the U.S. ADP employment report showed an increase of 0.233 million jobs, surpassing expectations, indicating the fastest pace of job growth by companies in over a year. Despite the recovery period from hurricanes, job numbers in October remained strong. The strength of the labor market may lead Federal Reserve officials to not rush into interest rate cuts.
・The U.S. real GDP for Q3 contracted by 2.8% compared to the previous quarter, falling below expectations with the previous value at 3%. This is the first time this indicator has fallen below market expectations since Q3 of 2023. The core PCE price index rose by 2.2% compared to the previous quarter, exceeding expectations. Economic growth was primarily supported by the consumption sector, with U.S. consumer spending increasing by 3.7% from the previous quarter, marking the largest growth since early 2023.
・The key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve rebounded. In September, the U.S. core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year, marking the largest increase in six months from the previous month.
・The number of initial jobless claims for the previous week decreased by 0.012 million from the previous week to 0.216 million, contrary to expectations of an increase from 0.228 million, hitting the lowest level in 5 months. The number of continuing jobless claims decreased more than expected from 1.888 million to 1.862 million, reaching the lowest level since the end of September.
- In October, the number of non-agricultural sector employees increased by 0.012 million, falling below the market's expected increase of 0.106 million. The previous period was downwardly revised by 0.223 million. The growth rate is the smallest since 2020. The factors include two hurricanes and Boeing's strike. The US October unemployment rate is 4.1%, expected 4.1%, previously 4.1%.
Source: MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Yahoo Finance, Schwab
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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