Next week's earnings and economic calendar (11/4~11/8) will the tumultuous presidential election and the US FOMC lead to a storm in the Japanese and American markets?
Next week's stock market in Japan will be, Attention is also necessary for factors such as weak seasonal factors and the approaching US presidential election.andthe US FOMCand, Expected to be a volatile developmentis expected. Especially depending on the results of the local presidential election on the 5th, there is a possibility that the market will become very volatile. If Republican candidate Mr. Trump wins and the dollar strengthens while the yen weakens, it will be a positive factor for Japanese stocks. However, if it becomes a close battle and it takes time for the outcome to be determined, the market may dislike the uncertainty.
Furthermore, the U.S. presidential and congressional elections, with voting closing on the 5th local time, will begin to transmit the results of exit polls from early states around the opening of the Japanese market on the 6th. Therefore, Japanese stock trades will be in a live state , and depending on the situation, there may be a possibility of significant market turmoil. Also, from November 5th, the trading hours of the Tokyo Stock Exchange will be extended by 30 minutesAnd the closing time will be changed from 15:00 to 15:30. As a result, some companies are changing the time of their earnings reports. $Honda Motor (7267.JP)$and $Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$Companies such as etc.are expected to be digested during trading hours.In Japan, etc. $Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011.JP)$and $Nintendo (7974.JP)$Toyota Motor, etc. $Tokyo Metro (9023.JP)$、 $Nippon Telegraph & Telephone (9432.JP)$With the consecutive earnings reports of various companies, individual stock picking activities are expected to become active.there is an expectation.
The US stock market is expected to be significantly influenced by the results of the presidential election. In particular, a "triple red" scenariocould see a rise in stock prices due to the expectation that if the Republican Party dominates the presidency and both houses of Congress, Trump's proposed tax cuts and regulatory relief will advance rapidly. However, the reaction of the bond market to Trump's fiscal expansion measures is also being watched closely, and there is a risk that the rise in long-term interest rates could curb the stock market's rise.there is a risk that the increase in long-term interest rates could restrain the rise in stock prices.。
On the other hand, Morgan Stanley stated that the US stock market has not fully factored in Mr. Trump's victory.Some signs, such as the sharp rise in the price of bitcoin and the increase in US bond yields, indicate that market participants are beginning to factor in Mr. Trump's victory. However, it is believed that this forecast is not fully reflected in the US stock market.Analysts believe that even if he wins, it is not necessarily certain that the sectors benefiting from his victory will rally.Regarding the dollar-yen, if Mr. Trump wins, a strong dollar and weak yen trend may continue, with the possibility of testing 155 yen in the event of a 'triple red' outcome. On the other hand, if Ms. Harris wins, there is a possibility of a risk-off yen buying leading to a strengthening yen to 148 yen.And then, the FOMC meeting will be held on the 6th to 7th day. A 0.25% rate cut is highly likely at this FOMC meeting, against the backdrop of the strength of the US economy.
During the following 6th to 7th day schedule.FOMCThis FOMC meeting is likely to involve a 0.25% rate cut, supported by the strength of the US economy.Future pace of interest rate cutsandHow does Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, view the economic sentiment in the United StatesisFocusIf further interest rate cuts are suggested, there is a possibility of a weaker dollar and stronger yen, which could have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market. Additionally, if expectations for keeping interest rates unchanged at the December meeting increase, it could also impact the market as a dollar buying opportunity.
Regarding US earnings, next week, $Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$and $Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$、 $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$、 $Palantir (PLTR.US)$Earnings reports are scheduled for companies such as Palantir. Market estimates predict that Palantir's third quarter revenue is $0.74 billion (an increase of 26.07% year-on-year) and EPS is $0.04 (an increase of 40.67% year-on-year).
1. The Nikkei Average showed a small rebound after 3 weeks, fluctuating due to concerns about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike.
2. Dow and S&P 500 indexes experienced monthly declines since April, ending in great volatility.
3. The earnings of 5 US high-tech companies increased market anxiety about AI investments.
4. Bitcoin shows signs of volatility ahead of the US presidential election.
Strong consumer spending supports the US economy, but weaker-than- expected US employment data rings alarm bells in the market.
In this week's Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei average rebounded for the first time in three weeks, rising 139.75 yen (0.37%) from the previous week to 30,053.67 yen. Expectations of cooperation between ruling and opposition parties following the heavy defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party in the Lower House election led to a rise in the Japanese stock market in the first half. However, the latter half softened after additional rate hikes by the Bank of Japan were perceived, resulting in a back and forth development.Explanation that the expression "there is time flexibility in the future" will not be usedAs a result of this, the possibility of another rate hike at the next meeting in December or January was recognized, leading to a sharp decline in the USD/JPY exchange rate. Following unexpectedly weak US employment statistics, the dollar/yen rate further declined, temporarily falling to the 151 yen level.Down to 151 yen level.Down to 151 yen level.
Ahead of the upcoming US presidential election next week, bitcoin broke through $73,000 for the first time in six months this week. However, the subsequent ascent towards a new all-time high faltered, dropping below $90,000 and failing once again in an attempt to exceed the $73,700 all-time high.According to the cryptocurrency trading platform Derive.xyz, trading of bitcoin call options has recently become active. Data from options reveals that the price of bitcoinOn the day of the US presidential election on November 5th, there is a one-third chance of showing a fluctuation of over 10%.There.Gold continues to hit record highs this week.Of note as a market view,Both the potential presidencies of Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris are considered positive factors for cryptocurrencies and gold. Analysts have mentioned that geopolitical risks, US debt crisis, and changes in monetary policy will support the bullish gold market. Additionally, next year's US Congress may become the most supportive of cryptocurrencies, as both Trump and Harris have expressed support for them.Analysts believe that both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris becoming president would be beneficial for cryptocurrency and gold. They mention that geopolitical risks, the US debt crisis, and changes in financial policy are factors that support a bullish market for gold. Additionally, the next US Congress is expected to be the most cryptocurrency-friendly Congress in history, as both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris have expressed support for cryptocurrencies.Potential to become the most cryptocurrency-friendly Congress in history.There is.
In the US stock market, this week, super large high-tech five companies have successively announced earnings reports.
The first to announce $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$earnings showed a growth rate in cloud revenue that exceeded expectations, and total revenue also unexpectedly accelerated,surprising the market. As a result,investors' 'AI anxiety' temporarily eased. However, it was followed by $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$and $Meta Platforms (META.US)$Earnings reports for The market was shocked by a cold shower.。
The performance of Microsoft and Meta was not that bad, as both revenue and net profit exceeded expectations. Especially, $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Total cloud revenue exceeded expectations with a 22% increase year-on-year, and AI boosted Azure's growth by 12 points. However, what scared investors was the Microsoft's fourth quarter AI revenue and expenditure outlookissue. Microsoft expects revenue from Azure in the fourth quarter to be Deceleration.Expected. Furthermore, after a capital expenditure increase of about 79% year-on-year in the third quarter, it is also expected to increase in the fourth quarter.Expected to increase compared to the previous period.。 $Meta Platforms (META.US)$The earnings report.Fueling investor concerns about excessive investment in AI.Meta's Reality Labs, which focuses on metaverse and AI business, recorded a loss of 4.42 billion dollars in the third quarter, and Meta expects significant increase in operating losses for the same department in the future.Operating losses will continue to increase significantly.Despite the increasing losses, Meta continues to invest large sums in AI, issuing a warning.Significant increase in capital expenditure in 2025. expressed. According to J.P. Morgan's estimate, capital expenditures for Google, Microsoft, and Meta in the third quarter totaleda 3% increase compared to the previous quarter and a 48% increase from the previous year.It happened.
$Apple (AAPL.US)$Revenue in the third quarter hit a record high during the same period.However, despite this, revenue in China did not perform well, and net profit decreased due to significant additional taxes ordered by the European Union court in September. However, revenue in China underperformed, and net profit decreased due to a substantial additional tax levy ordered by the European Union (EU) court in September.There is a possibility of slowing sales growth in the current quarter.There is. $Amazon (AMZN.US)$Q3 profitindicating the strong performance of the US economy. Meanwhile, the released price index shows a trend of inflation deceleration,, cloud business has grown rapidly.
According to analysts, the sharp drop in the US mega-cap stock 'M7' was not due to poor earnings, as revenue and profit were very good, but considering the current stock price and valuation, their performance forecast did not meet the market's expectations.。
On Thursday, the US mega-cap stock 'M7' plummeted across the board in earnings reports, causing a severe impact on the US stock market.The US stock market in October also ended in turmoil.S&P500 and Nasdaq struggled with reactions after the Big Tech earnings, with Nasdaq recording its largest single-day decline since September 3.All three major indices closed lower for the month.and Dow and S&P500 recorded their first monthly declines since April.Election day approaching, amidst rising investor anxiety,traded at elevated levels not seen since August 7. $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$Earnings of US mega-cap stocks, apart from the 'M7', varied.
Earnings of U.S. mega-cap stocks outside of the "M7" were also mixed.
・ $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$Even with an upward revision of annual revenue forecast for ai chip,the fourth-quarter guidance is lackluster. Some analystspoint out that due to supply chain constraints, the significant AI chip demand from customerspointed out.
・ $Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$led to lower revenue in the third quarterBelow expectationsthe sales of diet drugs are sluggish,significantly downward revision of full-year profit forecast7-9 month period
・ $Intel (INTC.US)$datacenter and AI revenue for the third quarter, and furthermoreexceeded the EPS forecast for the fourth quarter。
・ソーシャルメディア企業の $Reddit (RDDT.US)$and $Snap Inc (SNAP.US)$の株価が決算後にそれぞれ41%、15%以上急騰。前者は史上初の黒字を達成し第4四半期の収益は予想を上回ると発表、後者は3四半期の業績が市場予想を上回り、0.5 billionドルの自社株買いプログラムを発表した。・ $Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$led to lower revenue in the third quarterBelow expectationsthe sales of diet drugs are sluggish,significantly downward revision of full-year profit forecast7-9 month period
・ $Intel (INTC.US)$datacenter and AI revenue for the third quarter, and furthermoreexceeded the EPS forecast for the fourth quarter。
今週の米経済指標は米経済が堅調に推移することを示している。
- In September, the JOLTS job openings decreased significantly to 7.443 million, well below the expected 7.98 million, marking the lowest level in over 3 years. The previous value for August was revised downwards from 8.04 million to 7.86 million, indicating a slowdown in the US labor market.
- The US ADP employment report for October exceeded expectations with an increase of 0.233 million employees, making it the highest pace of job creation in over a year for companies. Despite the hurricane recovery period, October maintained a strong employment figure. The strength of the labor market may lead Federal Reserve officials to choose not to rush into interest rate cuts.
- The US real GDP for Q3 decreased by 2.8% compared to the previous quarter, falling short of expectations with the previous value at 3%. This is the first time this indicator has fallen below market expectations since the third quarter of 2023. The core PCE price index rose by 2.2% compared to the previous quarter, exceeding expectations. Economic growth was mainly supported by the consumption sector, with US consumer spending increasing by 3.7% from the previous quarter, marking the largest growth since early 2023.
- The most critical inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve pushed back. In September, the core PCE price index in the US rose by 2.7% year-on-year, showing the largest increase in six months compared to the previous month.
- The number of new initial jobless claims for the previous week decreased unexpectedly to 0.216 million, a reduction of 0.012 million from the previous week, contrary to expectations of an increase from 0.228 million, reaching the lowest level in five months. The number of continuing unemployment benefit recipients decreased more than expected from 1.888 million to 1.862 million, hitting its lowest point since the end of September.
- In October, the number of non-agricultural sector employees increased by 0.012 million, falling below the market's expected increase of 0.106 million. The previous period was downwardly revised by 0.223 million. The growth rate is the smallest since 2020. The factors include two hurricanes and Boeing's strike. The US October unemployment rate is 4.1%, expected 4.1%, previously 4.1%.
Source: MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Yahoo Finance, Schwab
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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