This week's financial results and economic calendar (3/25 to 3/29) optimistic market prices again! Is there room for further increases in US stocks and Japanese stocks?

moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Mar 22 08:55

This week's points
Japanese stocks are expected to continue growing this week. In the market, a sense of security has spread due to the passing of the Japan-US central bank meeting, and there are no conspicuous bad materials. While interest rates were raised for the first time in 17 years, the trend continued where the market price was strong due to purchases evaluating the transition to an inflationary economy. The fact that the exchange rate is currently swinging in the direction of yen depreciation is also likely to be positive. Also, this weekEnd of fiscal year in MarchSince the 27th is the last day with rights, it is expected that purchases made with the intention of taking dividend rights will underpin the market price. It's a situation where it's easy to get into shopping while looking ahead to the new fiscal year.

While it is easy for funds to go to value stocks such as banks and high dividends,Focus on whether TOPIX can update its all-time highIt looks like it's going to happen. Research manager Kazuhiro Sasaki of Philip Securities said, “While bank stocks etc. are easily bought due to the cancellation of negative interest rates by the Bank of Japan, expectations for stock price-net asset ratio (PBR) improvement are also strong from the viewpoint of economic normalization. The view was expressed that “the environment with TOPIX superiority is likely to continue in the future.” The Nikkei Stock Average is one step behind the high price update, but the significance of TOPIX, which has a high weight for domestic demand stocks, is not small.

Regarding economic indicators, domestically, the summary of the proceedings of the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting for January 25 and the “main opinions” of the current decision meeting will be announced on the 28th. In the main opinionDo you have any specific clues about the second rate hikeis attracting attention. In addition, the Tokyo Metropolitan Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March is also attracting attention. Governor Ueda stated at the press conference after the interest rate hike decision was made that an upward trend in price forecasts and heightened upside risks would be the reason for policy changes.

In the US, the middle of the year is viewed as dominant in the marketA development to re-determine the accuracy of a reduction in US interest rates from the contents of lectures given by senior Federal Reserve officials and economic indicatorsIt becomes. In terms of economic indicators, US GDP (gross domestic product) for the fiscal year ending 10-12 is an important price index that the Fed is paying attention toUS February PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) Deflatoris planned. It seems to be a major fluctuating factor in the market price.

This week's dollar and yenA development that tests 152 yen, which is the depreciation of the yen for the first time in 34 yearsIt looks like it's going to happen. It passed the Japan-US central bank policy decision and lacked short-term clues, and the end of the month, the end of the quarter, and the end of Japan's fiscal year overlap,A form led by supply and demand at the end of the termThere is a possibility that the milestone will be exceeded. Every year, yen sales looking at the beginning of the fiscal year after April tend to be dominant over yen purchases at the very end. Also, it is easy to buy dollars and sell yen, which anticipates that the interest rate difference between Japan and the US will continue to open. Expectations for the 152 yen trial will intersect this week with a sense of caution against intervention.

This week's financial results and economic calendar (3/25 to 3/29) optimistic market prices again! Is there room for further increases in US stocks and Japanese...

Last week's market price points
1. The Nikkei Average reached an all-time high of 2000! Exceeded 41,000 yen at one point
2. The Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years, and the market's interest in the world's last negative interest rate changed to the pace at which the Bank of Japan raised interest rates
3. The depreciation of the yen even if negative interest rates are lifted, the appreciation of the dollar reflects the strength of the United States
4. FRB maintains rate cuts “3 times within the year” due to quantitative tightening and deceleration
5. The highest price of US stocks was updated, and the market was optimistic again! A sense of security spreads in response to FOMC
6. NVIDIA announces next-generation chips for AI! The expanding NVIDIA economic zone is intensifying the scouting for AI-related topics
7. Risk of stock price reversal over NVIDIA, where AMD continues to decline

The Nikkei Average rebounded sharply in the Tokyo stock market last week to 40,888.43 yen, 2180.79 yen (5.63%) higher than the previous weekend. TOPIX rebounded to 2813.22 points, up 5.33%, and is rapidly approaching the all-time high value (2886.5 points) set on 1989/12/18,The new high price update for the end of this week is in sight。

At the monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Japan lifted the last negative interest rate in the world and decided to raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years. The abolition of yield curve control (long and short interest rate operation, YCC) and the suspension of new purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were also decided, and since 2013/4Large-scale monetary easing policies have reached a turning point. It was decided that government bond purchases would continue so that there would be no discontinuity in the market. On the 21st, Governor Ueda was asked about policies to reduce government bond balances held in response to large-scale monetary easing reviews, and expressed the view that government bond purchases will be reduced in the future, and holdings balances will also decrease. After negative interest rates are lifted,Market interest is shifting to a future pace of interest rate hikes、Price trends continue to hold the key. The February national consumer price index (core CPI excluding fresh food) announced on the 22nd had a high increase for the first time in 4 months. It has remained at 2% or higher for 23 consecutive months.

The US Federal Reserve left policy interest rates unchanged for 5 consecutive meetings at the FOMC held on the 20th. According to the interest rate and economic outlook announced at the same time, interest rate cuts were maintained at least 3 times during the year at the median price,The Fed continues to anticipate a soft landingThat was shown. Meanwhile, quantitative tightening (QT) is a policy to slow down soon in order to prevent market turmoil. Central bank assets in Japan, the US, and Europe are still high at 80% of their peak,The pattern where “mitigation money” remaining in the market boosts stock prices continues. In response to this, bond prices rose on the 20th, stock prices also hit record highs, and a buy signal was lit in the US financial market.

The market incorporates the Bank of Japan's judgment in advance, and since it was clearly stated in the statement that “an accommodative financial environment will continue for the time being,” the depreciation of the yen and appreciation of the dollar continue. Also, expectations for artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors that have continued since the beginning of the year make the market aware of the rise in neutral interest rates via rising productivity in the United States. In addition to the view that interest rates will continue to be high in the US,Is it easy for investment money to gather in dollars that reflect the strength of the US economy. Drive growthThere is a possibility that expectations for high technology will prolong the depreciation of the yen and appreciation of the dollarThere is. On the 20th, the depreciation of the yen and appreciation of the dollar progressed until the latter half of the $1 = 151 yen range.

Major US semiconductor company $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$At the developer conference “GTC2024,” approximately 300 companies from around the world exhibited the latest technology and are booming. Proprietary artificial intelligence (AI), robots, and virtual reality (VR) technologies utilizing semiconductors and software provided by NVIDIA have spread,It is building a major economic zone. The company's CEO Jenson Huang unveiled a next-generation chip aimed at further strengthening the company's dominant position in AI computing. It was stated that the new chip, codenamed “Blackwell,” is much faster and larger than existing products. According to the announcement, the new chip is scheduled to go on sale later this year. UBS analysts estimate the price of the new chip at $50,000. This is roughly double the price of the previous generation estimated by analysts. Also, the annual development meeting held by NVIDIA ended successfully, and the search for AI-related matters intensified.

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US)$It only rose on the 2nd in the past 10 days. The company's stock jumped on the wave of the AI boom and showed no less rapid performance, but originally the factors supporting the rise were not that certain. What is the company's stockIt is more expensive than NVIDIA and the growth prospects are weakFrom that,There is a greater risk of stock price reversal than NVIDIAIt was also pointed out. “Stock prices are at a level that incorporates perfection in the short term, and I don't feel like betting on a long-term outlook with current valuations. This is usually an equation for a stock price reversal.” Meanwhile, $Micron Technology(MU.US)$Settlement was received on the 21st14% higherand it skyrocketed. Earnings per share had an unexpected surplus, and sales also exceeded expectations. Earnings per share and sales forecasts that exceed expectations are also shown. The CEO of Meherotra said in a statement, “WeCould be one of the biggest beneficiaries of AI demand in the chip industry” It was stated.

Source: MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Trader's Web, WelsAdvisor, Reuters
ー MooMoo News Sherry

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181338057犬心久美子 : I'm sorry for being a disgusting guy

I think it would be better if the Nikkei Average doesn't float too much. I'm happy that the Nikkei Average has risen
at last! I think it's back to normal.
If it hadn't been for 30 years of emptiness, it would have gone even higher.
Also, foreign investors and institutions have overbought about 70%. this? What happens if they're sold all at once?
So, Japanese companies are even more powerful
The ground must be hardened. If you don't have patience
The strength of the Nikkei Average in the true sense of the word is questioned.
The foundation for this is, after all, the power of small and medium-sized enterprises.
You must never disdain ️.
The supernatant is foam. It's just that the light is on.
One product, etc. can be delivered after passing parts, assembly scrutiny, inspection, durability, etc.
I want this stance to take root in the Japanese market and solidify the foundation for not being affected.

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181338057犬心久美子 : Everyone who liked it ️
Thank you very much.

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181338057犬心久美子 : Everyone who liked and commented
Thank you very much

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