Earnings and Economic Calendar for This Week (4/15~4/19) - Prequel to US semiconductor stocks' earnings! Will it dispel the negative sentiment?

Points for this week
Is the upper limit of Japanese stocks heavy this week? Concerns about long-term US inflation are suppressing the upper limit, but the resilience of the US economy is providing support.The key points are domestic and international earnings.In addition, especially in the United States, earnings reports are intensifying ahead of Japan. This week,There is also the possibility of semiconductor-related companies announcing their earnings, which could be a positive factor for Japanese stocks. Also, in the United States, earnings reports are starting, and there are several highly anticipated indicators being released, leading to increased reactions to news from overseas. On the other hand, concerns about the Middle East situation have been rising since last weekend, with potential implications for geopolitical tensions, with movements focused on economic sentiment and monetary policy expectations.Expressing caution towards the Middle East geopolitical situation, market attention is likely to shift towards US corporate earnings. Profitability of S&P 500 companies is expected to increase for the second consecutive quarter, especiallyThe vigilance towards the Middle East situation has been heightenedComing into focus due to the intensification of the geopolitical situation, movements have been primarily driven by economic sentiment and speculations on monetary policy.

Passing through last week's inflation indicators, market attention is easily shifting towards US corporate earnings. Profits of S&P 500 companies are expected to increase for the second consecutive quarter, especiallyThe high profitability of major IT and high-tech companies is an important driverIt is likely to become so. Despite the 'CPI shock' causing a decline in expectations for a Fed rate cut, it is expected that earnings will dispel the negative atmosphere in the market, with some suggesting that 'the future market leadership will be driven by earnings rather than a Fed rate cut'. According to LSEG data, analysts expect a 5% increase in profits for S&P 500 companies in the 1st to 3rd quarter compared to the previous year.a 5% increase compared to the previous yearand it is expected thatshowing particularly strong growth in the telecom services and technology sectors, expecting gains of 26.7% and 20.9% respectively.On the other hand, the energy, materials, and health care sectors are expected to experience the most significant declines in profits.energy, materials, and health careare expected to have the most significant declines in profits.

On the 15th in the USAretail sales for MarchIt will be announced. On the 16th, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) will update the World Economic Outlook (WEO). If the WEO is revised upwards, it is likely to be a tailwind for risk assets such as stocks. Domestically, the announcement of the March National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for the 19th. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated on the 10th that if the progress of yen depreciation leads to a significant increase in import prices, and there is a high risk that the basic prices will rise by more than 2%, it will be necessary to consider changes in monetary policy.

This week, the dollar-yen is expected to gradually rise amid position adjustments. The main focus is whether there will be actual intervention by overseas speculative investors to initiate selling yen, which could lead to a relatively quick test of the 155 yen line. If the US March retail sales on the 15th show strong performance, the dollar is likely to strengthen further against the yen. With limited other US economic indicators, the dollar-yen is expected to consolidate through position adjustment. Kazuhiro Ogawa, Director of the Deutsche Bank Foreign Exchange Sales Department, points out the need to be cautious about the yen being likely to be bought in a risk-off scenario, amidst accumulating yen short positions.whether there will be actual interventionOverseas speculative investors trying to intervene may lead to a relatively early test of the 155 yen line.a scenario where testing the 155 yen line is anticipated.If the US March retail sales on the 15th are strong, further dollar strength and yen weakness are expected. With limited other US economic indicators, the dollar-yen may see a consolidation-led development through position adjustment.

On the other hand, by directly attacking Israel, Iran further intensified the confrontation between the two countries. As a result, oil prices rose.oil prices rose.At one point, The pressure to decline in the stock market has increased.Investor sentiment has turned bearish. In addition, concerns about passage through the Strait of Hormuz have grown, affecting the marine shipping market.Marine shipping stocksare increasingly seen as rising. Saxo's Ole Hansen noted that the rise in oil prices is more of a concern than actual turmoil, and pointed out that the gold market is already factoring in a risk premium. He added that whether the risk premium expands or not will depend on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, close to Iran.

Last week's market points
1. The Nikkei Average rebounded for the first time in three weeks, with buying favoring the weak yen, centering on export-related stocks
2. U.S Core CPI unexpectedly risen for the third consecutive month! Has the U.S interest rate cut plan gone off track?
3. Major US banks are revising their rate cut expectations! Will there be only one in December within the year?
4. The yen depreciation continues, reaching the 153 yen range for the first time in 34 years. Overseas players maintain a short yen position, will there be intervention after the G20?
5. Nvidia temporarily enters a correction phase, followed by a rapid rebound with a sense of value buying.
6. Surpassing Nvidia! US electrical utility stocks are experiencing strong growth.
7. Popular demand for 'data center related' stocks in the Japanese market is reigniting due to the rapid growth of the AI market.

Last week in the Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei average rose for the first time in 3 weeks, up 531.47 yen (1.36%) from the previous week, to 9523.55 yen, a 0.03 million high. The March US Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeded market expectations. The main reasons are the rise in energy prices due to high oil prices, as well as increases in service prices such as rent, automobile insurance, and medical expenses. Speculation on a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve Board (FRB) has been fading rapidly. Expectations of a rate cut in June have almost disappeared, and the view that there will be two rate cuts within the year has strengthened. US bonds saw a significant decline, and the voices of bond bears have become even stronger. There have been voices suggesting the possibility that the FOMC may not implement any easing measures by the end of the year. On the other hand, the growth of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) announced on the 11th has slowed down since February and fell below expectations. The core index also remained at the lowest growth rate since the beginning of the year. The cautiousness towards inflation resurging has somewhat eased, but there has not been a significant revision in the speculation of the postponement of the rate cut by the US FRB that emerged after the "CPI shock".