This week's earnings and economic calendar (4/8~4/12) marks the beginning of the earnings season! Will the US CPI and earnings move the market?
The outlook for Japanese stocks this week is expected to continue to decline. As speculation about an early rate cut in the USA recedes and uncertainty about the future of financial policy is realized, downward pressure is likely to increase on Japanese stocks. The increasingly tense situation in the Middle East is also likely to be seen as negative news. Additionally, significant economic indicators with a large impact on financial policy domestically and abroad will be released. If US price indicators exceed expectations or if real wages in Japan continue to decline, investor sentiment is likely to worsen, weighing on the market. Speculation continues to swirl around the timing and... Economic indicatorsYaMessages from the central bankIt is expected to be significantly influenced by long-term interest rates and exchange rates.
In the USA this week, the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are scheduled to be released, attracting market participants' interest. If the CPI exceeds expectations for the third consecutive month following January and February, there may be a cautious stance from the US monetary authority on early rate cuts, leading to a rise in US interest rates, a decline in US stocks, and potentially increased selling pressure on Japanese stocks. However, some divergence from the consensus is already factored into the market. On the other hand, with the rise in US interest rates, there is a possibility the exchange rate may shift towards a weaker yen. Yet, considering that the dollar is already trading in the 151 yen range, there may be limited room for further yen depreciation, making the market more susceptible to the influence of US stocks than the exchange rate.
In Japan, the release of the Monthly Labor Statistics for February is scheduled. Real wages are expected to decrease by 1.3% year-on-year, likely widening from the 0.6% decrease in January, the smallest in 13 months.There is a high likelihood of the potential for further expansion.If the trend of declining real wages persists amid continued price increases, it is likely to become a drag on stocks related to domestic demand.Furthermore, the calculation of the Special Clearing Index (SQ) of stock index options is scheduled for the 12th. There is a high chance that the Nikkei Average volatility will increase significantly.Will the dollar-yen this week show steady price movements? With increasing adjustments in the stock market due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and a clear shift towards risk aversion, the movement for risk aversion could intensify.
Is the dollar-yen this week trading at a firm bottom? With growing tension in the Middle East leading to increased adjustment pressure on the stock market, a clear risk-averse movement may become apparent.There is an expectation of a one-stage rise in the yen.It is also expected that if the tension further intensifies, investors' risk-off stance will strengthen even further, but if signs of calming appear, risk assets such as stocks are likely to be preferred.There is likely to be buying back of dollars.It is expected that there may be a stronger risk-averse attitude in the next 1-2 weeks amidst the increased uncertainty surrounding the Israel-Iran situation and US monetary policy. There are also voices saying that the wariness towards rising oil prices is increasing. Concerns over Hamas-Israel conflict and Iran's involvement are raising caution, leading to a strong oil market amidst the confusion in the Middle East situation. As a result, global inflation concerns are increasing.and speculation about interest rate cuts by major central banks is receding as a trend of rising oil prices strengthens.globalthe observation of interest rate cuts。
日米の企業決算の発表は今週からスタートする。米国株ではFinancial stocksの決算が予定されている。国内では小売企業などの決算発表も徐々に始まる。決算でポジティブな反応が見られる銘柄が多く出てくるかに注目したい。 $Seven & i Holdings (3382.JP)$、 $Fast Retailing (9983.JP)$など小売り企業の決算発表が予定されている。好業績が示された場合は、内需セクターに物色が広がるThere is a possibility. Along with earnings reports,shareholder return plansthere is also an expectation thatindividual stock selection in the domestic sector will provide support for the market. Whetherthere was a voice expressing the need to determine if the business conditions for companies closing their books in February in Japan, from December last year to February this year, will be affected by the shipping halt caused by inspection irregularities in auto manufacturers, as well as by lingering inventory adjustments for consumer electronics products such as smart phones.
1. Nikkei Average fell for the second consecutive week, breaking through the 0.03 million 9000 yen level
2. Chairman Powell's remarks show no change in overall tone, other FRB officials have made hawkish comments
Critical moment approaching Tesla, quarterly delivery numbers significantly below expectations, competition intensifying leading to the first decrease in 4 years.
Apple, buyback expectations rise after sharp decline in January-March! Will it emerge from its worst period of interest.
Energy stocks gaining popularity day by day! Crude oil facing upward pressure as geopolitical risks resurface.
Yen temporarily returns to the 150 yen range for the first time in about 2 weeks, yen buying as a risk aversion measure.
U.S. March employment statistics, largest increase in a year, complete anticipation of U.S. rate cut shifting from July to September.
In the Tokyo stock market last week, the Nikkei average fell for the second consecutive week, dropping more than four digits from the previous week by 1377.36 yen (3.41%) to 8992.08 yen, indicating the largest weekly decline this year, hinting at an immediate adjustment phase.U.S. economic indicators showing economic resilience.becauseSpeculation of interest rate cuts has diminished.In the new fiscal year,Selling aimed at profit-takingwas prevalent, and by the second half of the week,the Middle East situation became tense, strengthening risk aversion sentiment.Additionally,.
Regarding US economic indicators, the February JOLTS job openings were almost unchanged from the previous month. In March, ADP US private employment numberssignificantly exceeded expectations.、昨年7月来で最大の伸びとなった。労働市場の底堅さが改めて鮮明となった。ISM製造業総合景況指数は市場予想に反し、2022年9月以来の活動拡大を示した。市場は利下げ期待をさらに後退させている。5日発表の3月の米雇用者数はほぼ１年ぶりの大幅増US PCE Price Index revised downward to 2.8% increase for the April-June quarter失業率は低下した。力強い労働市場が景気を押し上げていることを示し、市場の利下げ期待はさらに後退している。米短期金融市場で、米利下げの完全な織り込み時期が７月から９月に後退On the other hand, the ISM non-manufacturing business activity index has declined for the second consecutive month, with the input price index reaching its lowest level in 4 years.Easing concerns about the risk of the Fed's inflationary measures losing momentum, as the ISM non-manufacturing business activity index has declined for the second consecutive month, with the input price index reaching its lowest level in 4 years.Ahead of the announcement of the quarterly customer delivery numbers, selling pressure had been building up for months. The delivery numbers for the first quarter announced on the 2nd fell below the previous year's performance for the first time in 4 years, significantly missing even the lowered estimates. The struggle in major markets against emerging companies and existing competitors, coupled with declining demand, has been evident. The diminishing impact of price cuts is also suggested. The stock price also experienced a temporary drop of over 7%.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The stock price also experienced a temporary drop of over 7%. Amidst investors' anticipation for a bottoming out, technical analysis suggestsBottoming out is earnestly desired within the investment community, while technical analysis indicatesThe quarterly delivery numbers are expected to be announced in a few months. The delivery numbers for the first quarter announced on the 2nd fell below the previous year's performance for the first time in 4 years, significantly missing even the lowered estimates.The stock price also experienced a temporary drop of over 7%. Amidst investors' anticipation for a bottoming out, technical analysis suggestsOn the other hand, the ISM non-manufacturing business activity index has declined for the second consecutive month, with the input price index reaching its lowest level in 4 years.150 dollars is being highlighted as an important milestone.However, considering the recent decline,Signs of extreme stock market declines are beginning to emerge.Some on Wall Street are starting to see that.
The U.S. stock market, which has sunk by 12% since the beginning of the year. $Apple (AAPL.US)$At this point, attention is focusing on whether it is coming out of the worst period.The return for the first quarter ended up being an uninspiring result of about 10 years.For short sellers who profited from the selling pressure on Apple shares,Motives for unwinding positionsare emerging. According to analysts of technical analysis, Apple's stock price isapproaching a level where buying on dips is likely to increase significantly.Furthermore, due to underperformance since the beginning of the year, Apple's stock may appearto be undervalued.According to analysis by S3 Partners, Apple's stock has been a lucrative target for short sellers this year, and short sellers have realized $2.4 billion in unrealized gains by short selling Apple's stock. While there hasn't been a significant change in the current size of short interest, it has decreased from last year's levels.secondProfitable, and shorts in Apple's stock have Unrealized profits of $2.4 billion. While there hasn't been a significant change in the current size of short interest, it has decreased from last year's levels.
Attracting investment money in the category of "resources and energy".On the day when the area around Iran's embassy in Syria was bombed by Israel, Iran is hinting at retaliatory measures, amidst increasing geopolitical risks.Crude oil prices sharply rose.WTI prices rose to the highest level in about 5 and a half months. Furthermore, OPEC Plus has maintained production cuts, and there is a growing awareness of bottoming out of demand in a sluggish China.Upward revisionBofA Global Research made a forecast for oil prices in 2024. "There have been changes in the current trend of speculation. Currently, amid global inflation tendencies, investment money has shifted its focus towards energy-related stocks."There were voices pointing out that the surge in commodity prices is noticeable.Prices of commodities are soaring. Not only are crude oil market conditions and gold prices rising, but also silver, copper, and aluminum prices are all experiencing sharp increases.There is also a growing sense of caution about the Federal Reserve becoming more cautious about further interest rate cuts.In addition, amid increasing geopolitical risks, demand for safe-haven assets boosted the yen, and the yen rose to the 150 yen per dollar level for the first time in about two weeks.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated in a speech on the 3rd that recent employment and inflation indicators have exceeded expectations, but do not fundamentally alter the overall picture of the Fed's policies. In response, gold hit a record high on Thursday. However, concerns about lingering high inflation, postponement of rate cuts, and a decrease in expected number of cuts have been growing among other Fed officials since the last FOMC meeting.
Atlanta Fed President Bostic expressed the view that it would be appropriate to start lowering rates in the fourth quarter.He indicated a potential rate cut of 0.25% once this year.expressed an opinion. Mr. said %0.25 points by the end of the year.expects one rate cut of 0.25%if inflation weakens further.There is a possibility that the need for interest rate cuts within the year will no longer be necessary.mention. Richmond Fed President Barkin also emphasized in his speech that no one wishes for inflation resurgence, and the FRB "it is wise to take time" and does not rush to determine interest rate cuts.is a wise approach to take time.stating that it is prudent not to rush the interest rate cut decision.There is a possibility that the level of conviction necessary for the financial authorities to start the interest rate cut will be reached in the coming months.indicate.
Sources: MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Traders Web, Wealth Advisor, Reuters
moomoo News Sherry
Sources: MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Traders Web, Wealth Advisor, Reuters
moomoo News Sherry
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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Beginner_ : It always helps![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
182076928鬼平 : That's a sensible decision!
181338057犬心久美子 : Very
️ It's a selfish personal opinion, but even though the numerical values of each data gradually declined and settled down
️ there are no interest rate cuts this year ~ 1 time and 
️ the market
drop in Kashkari's words.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
has to take the lead and become 
well 
doesn't fall
️ a good phase is coming.
do your best 
do your best in Japan too 
️![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
what 
... was incoherent and I didn't understand. I'm sorry 
Sometimes it goes up against the Federal Reserve's will. So I understand that every time they want to watch the situation for a few more months. However, predictions are gradually
It's pushed back and forth and it's out of place.
If so
It's been factored in, and it's time to act normally
and buy and sell, go smoothly, go against each other,
It's CFD, double inverse, lever,
While doing what you are good at in a short period of time and in a daunting manner
I think I should go. The reason for the sharp decline in the American market in the latter half of last week was the situation in the Middle East and a sharp
He doesn't have the right to vote in the Federal Reserve this year.
In a sense, the mentality of investor sentiment may be weaker than the Japanese market
Card loan arrears, poor commercial buildings,
Despite the fact that the amount of shoplifting damage on the west coast is on the scale of trillions of yen, the police have shoplifting damage amounts below a fixed amount
One by one, it's a lawless, defenseless state because it's not compatible. American government finance issues of procrastination,
Of the geopolitical risks that America is involved in and is taking care of
There are things to worry about when it comes to budgeting, etc. Ahead of the big event that gets the most attention in the world called the presidential election, now America
Maybe it's Nervous, but America
The dollar bill collapses, America divides, America ends
There are a lot of YouTubers who say such things,
Be polite,
It's on top of proper data and predictions, isn't it?
Like the era of the Global South
BRI CS is taking the storm, or is it a unified world currency
If that's the case, it's good to do it within that range.
As long as Earth
The blood flowing through the US dollar is unstoppable.
Also,
America
So
鬼氣麒麟 : At least it's not yesterday morning's information (NY Dow is back)
プーの助 : Chinah