This week's financial results and economic calendar (4/8 to 4/12) financial results season has entered! Will US CPI and financial results move the market price?
Japanese stocks are expected to continue to fall this week. While early interest rate cut observations in the US recede and uncertainty about the future of monetary policy is being recognized, downward pressure is likely to be applied to Japanese stocks. The situation in the Middle East, which has become even more tense, seems to be perceived as bad news. Also, economic indicators that have a large impact on monetary policy at home and abroad will be announced. If the US price index rises or if real wages in Japan continue to decline, investor sentiment will deteriorate and the market price is likely to weigh on. Currently, speculations are mixed over the timing and number of interest rate hikes in the US,Economic indicatorsYaMessage from the central bankIt seems that long-term interest rates and exchange rates will be greatly stimulated.
In the US, the March US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are scheduled to be announced this week, drawing the interest of market participants. If CPI rises from expectations following January and February, the US financial authorities' cautious stance against early interest rate cuts will intensify, US interest rates will rise and US stocks will depreciate, and there is a possibility that selling pressure on Japanese stocks will also intensify. However, it is also conceivable that a slight gap with consensus has already been factored into the market price. On the other hand, there is also a possibility that the exchange rate will depreciate due to an increase in US interest rates, but with the dollar already moving in the 151 yen range, “there is little room for yen depreciation to progress, and it seems that it will be a position where it is more likely to be influenced by US stocks rather than exchange trends.”
In Japan, labor statistics are scheduled to be published every month for February. The market anticipates a 1.3% decrease in real wages compared to the previous year, and the negative range began in January (0.6% decrease), when it shrunk to a low level for the first time in 13 monthsProbability that it will expand againIt's big. If it seems that a downward trend in real wages is confirmed as prices continue to rise,A hindrance to domestic demand-related stocks such as consumptionIt looks like it's going to be. Also, special liquidation index (SQ) calculation for stock price index options is scheduled for the 12th. There is a high probability that the fluctuation of the Nikkei Average will also increase.
Are there solid price movements for the dollar and yen this week? When adjustment pressure on the stock market has intensified due to the tense situation in the Middle East, and risk aversion movements become clear,Expansion of a circle one step higheris also expected. If the sense of tension rises further, it is expected that investors' risk-off attitude will further strengthen, but when signs of calm down are seen, risk assets such as stocks will be preferredBuy back to dollarsIt looks like it's going in. There are also voices saying, “As uncertainty about the Israel-Iran situation and US monetary policy heightens, the attitude of risk aversion may intensify for the next 1 to 2 weeks.” Also, there is a growing sense of caution against crude oil prices, which are intensifying their upward trend. Iran's intervention in the Hamas-Israel dispute was feared, and crude oil prices were strong against the backdrop of turbulence in the Middle East situation. wherebyConcerns about global inflation have intensified, of major central banksInterest rate cut observations have receded。
Announcements of Japan-US corporate financial results will begin this week. In US stocksFinancial stocksSettlement of accounts is planned. Domesticallyretail companiesFinancial results announcements such as these will gradually begin. I would like to pay attention to how many stocks have shown a positive response in financial results. $Seven & i Holdings(3382.JP$、 $Fast Retailing(9983.JP$Financial results announcements for retail companies, etc. are scheduled. If good performance is shown,Shopping expands into the domestic demand sectorIt's possible. Simultaneously with settlementShareholder return policyThere is also a sense of expectation that it will be announced,”Whether individual shopping in the domestic demand sector will support the marketThere was a voice saying, “I want to make an assessment.” Also, in Japan, the business conditions of companies that closed in February last year from December last year to February this year were affected by the suspension of shipments due to inspection fraud by automobile manufacturers, and inventory adjustments for consumer electronics products such as smartphones are also coming to an end.
1. The Nikkei Average continued to fall for 2 weeks, breaking the 39,000 yen level
2. Chairman Powell's remarks, no change in overall tone, other senior Federal Reserve officials are hawkish comments
3. Decline for the first time in 4 years due to the critical moment approaching Tesla, quarterly deliveries fell far below expectations and intensified competition
4. Expectations for Apple to buy back due to a sharp drop in January-March! Pay attention to whether it will come out of the worst period
5. Energy stocks are becoming more popular every day! Geopolitical risks rekindling upward pressure on crude oil
6. Yen is temporarily in the 150 yen range for the first time in about 2 weeks, buying yen to avoid risk
7. US-March employment statistics, drastic increase for the first time in 1 year, and the complete factored period of US interest rate cuts recedes from July to September
The Nikkei Average fell for the second week in a row to 38,992.08 yen (1377.36 yen) lower than the previous weekend in the Tokyo stock market last week. The weekly decline exceeded 4 digits and became the biggest this year, indicating an imminent entry into an adjustment phase.US economic indicators show the solidity of the economyWith thatInterest rate cut observations have receded. Entering the new fiscal yearSelling for the purpose of determining profitIt was easy to come out, and in the second half of the weekThe situation in the Middle East is tense and there is a risk avoidance moodhas also gotten stronger.
Regarding the US economic indicators, the number of JOLTS job offers in February was almost unchanged from the previous month. The number of ADP US private sector employees in MarchIt greatly exceeded expectationsIt was the biggest increase since July last year. The solidity of the labor market has once again become clear. The ISM manufacturing comprehensive business climate index is contrary to market expectations,Shows the expansion of activities since 2022/9That's it. Expectations of interest rate cuts are further receding in the market. The number of people employed in the US for March announced on the 5th is almostSignificant increase for the first time in 1 yearThen,Unemployment rate fallsI did it. It shows that a strong labor market is boosting the economy, and market expectations for interest rate cuts have receded further. In the US short-term financial market, the period when US interest rate cuts are completely factored inRetreat from July to SeptemberDoing it. Meanwhile, the ISM non-manufacturing business index declined for 2 consecutive months, and the input price indexLow level for the first time in 4 yearsThus, concerns that there is a risk that the Fed's inflation countermeasures will stall will be mitigated.
$Tesla(TSLA.US$Sales have been high since a few months ago, ahead of the announcement of the number of cars delivered per quarter. The number of units delivered for the 1st quarter announced on the 2ndFirst time in 4 yearsIt was lower than the previous year's results, and even the forecast, which was revised downward, fell far short. In addition to being forced to struggle in major markets due to competition with start-ups and existing competitors, it also faced a decline in demand. It also suggests that the effects of price cuts are fading. Stock prices tooDecrease of over 7% at one pointI did it. While investors are desperate to hit rock bottom, in technical analysis$150 is notable as an important milestoneIt's been done. Meanwhile, based on the recent decline,Signs that stock depreciation has reached its limit are beginning to be seenThat view also came up on Wall Street.
Rice sinks to a negative 12% year to date $Apple(AAPL.US$Stock prices came here tooAttention is being drawn to whether they will get out of the worst period. The return for the first quarter ended without even being the first in about 10 years. Short sellers who made a profit by selling Apple stockMotivation to rewindhas been born. According to technical analysis analysts, Apple stock pricesA level where transactions aimed at push buying are likely to increase rapidlyIt's getting closer. Also, due to delays from the beginning of the year, Apple stock compared to other major tech brandsLooks cheapMaybe. According to S3 Partners' analysis, Apple stock will be a short selling stock this yearsecondProfits are large, and short sellers have obtained unrealized gains of 2.4 billion dollars from short sales of Apple shares. There is currently no major change in the scale of short sales balances, but it has declined from last year's level.
Attracting investment money in the category of “resources and energy”Doing it. Iran suggests countermeasures against the fact that the area around Iran's embassy in Syria was bombed by Israel on the 1st, and as geopolitical risks increase,Crude oil prices have skyrocketed. WTI prices rose to a level for the first time in about five and a half months. Also, OPEC Plus maintained production cuts, and awareness of demand bottoming out in China, where the economy is sluggish, has begun to be recognized. BofA Global Research predicts crude oil prices for '24Upward correctionI did it. “There is a change in the flow of shopping underneath my feet. What is aheadInvestment money's gaze has shifted to energy-related stocks due to signs of global inflationThere was a voice pointing it out.” The rise in commodity prices is conspicuous. As well as the rise in crude oil market conditions and gold prices, silver, copper, and aluminum prices have all risen rapidly,There is also a growing sense of caution that the Fed will become even more cautious about cutting interest rates. Also, yen buying intensified due to evasive demand from heightened geopolitical risks, and the yen exchange rate temporarily rose to the 1 dollar = 150 yen range for the first time in about 2 weeks on the 5th.
In his speech on the 3rd, Fed Chairman Powell expressed recognition that while recent employment and inflation indicators have exceeded expectations, the overall picture surrounding the Fed's policies will not drastically change. In response to this, gold hit a record high on Thursday. However, after the previous FOMC, there has been a growing number of voices from other senior Fed officials expecting concerns that inflation will remain high, that interest rate cuts will be postponed, and that the number of implementations will decrease.
Atlanta Federal Bank President Bostic said about interest rate cutsThe best time to start is in the fourth quarterIt showed that view. He has 0.25% points by the end of the yearInterest rate cut 1 timeI'm expecting it. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari said that if progress in slowing inflation is delayed,There is a possibility that interest rate cuts by the end of the year willI pointed out that there is one. Richmond Federal Reserve President Birkin also said in his speech, “Nobody wants inflation to rekindle, and the FedTake your time wiselyIt emphasizes the attitude of not rushing to decide on interest rate cuts, saying, “Yes.” Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Mester is at the level of confidence necessary for the monetary authorities to begin cutting interest ratesPossibility of getting closer in the next few monthsI expressed the view that there is.
Source: MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Trader's Web, WelsAdvisor, Reuters
ー MooMoo News Sherry
Source: MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Trader's Web, WelsAdvisor, Reuters
ー MooMoo News Sherry
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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Beginner_ : It always helps![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
182076928鬼平 : That's a sensible decision!
181338057犬心久美子 : Very
️ It's a selfish personal opinion, but even though the numerical values of each data gradually declined and settled down
️ there are no interest rate cuts this year ~ 1 time and 
️ the market
drop in Kashkari's words.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
has to take the lead and become 
well 
doesn't fall
️ a good phase is coming.
do your best 
do your best in Japan too 
️![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
what 
... was incoherent and I didn't understand. I'm sorry 
Sometimes it goes up against the Federal Reserve's will. So I understand that every time they want to watch the situation for a few more months. However, predictions are gradually
It's pushed back and forth and it's out of place.
If so
It's been factored in, and it's time to act normally
and buy and sell, go smoothly, go against each other,
It's CFD, double inverse, lever,
While doing what you are good at in a short period of time and in a daunting manner
I think I should go. The reason for the sharp decline in the American market in the latter half of last week was the situation in the Middle East and a sharp
He doesn't have the right to vote in the Federal Reserve this year.
In a sense, the mentality of investor sentiment may be weaker than the Japanese market
Card loan arrears, poor commercial buildings,
Despite the fact that the amount of shoplifting damage on the west coast is on the scale of trillions of yen, the police have shoplifting damage amounts below a fixed amount
One by one, it's a lawless, defenseless state because it's not compatible. American government finance issues of procrastination,
Of the geopolitical risks that America is involved in and is taking care of
There are things to worry about when it comes to budgeting, etc. Ahead of the big event that gets the most attention in the world called the presidential election, now America
Maybe it's Nervous, but America
The dollar bill collapses, America divides, America ends
There are a lot of YouTubers who say such things,
Be polite,
It's on top of proper data and predictions, isn't it?
Like the era of the Global South
BRI CS is taking the storm, or is it a unified world currency
If that's the case, it's good to do it within that range.
As long as Earth
The blood flowing through the US dollar is unstoppable.
Also,
America
So
鬼氣麒麟 : At least it's not yesterday morning's information (NY Dow is back)
プーの助 : Chinah