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Earnings Reports and Economic Calendar for this week (5/27~5/31): Will the market continue to be dominated by NVIDIA? Expectations for buying opportunities in domestic semiconductor-related stocks.

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moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · May 24, 2024 21:49
Points for this week
It is expected that the Japanese stock market this week will have a heavy upside. Amid concerns that investors' sentiment will be chilled as the United States' inflation remains unsettled and the likelihood of interest rate cuts recedes, there is a lack of new information after passing the earnings of the highly anticipated U.S. NVIDIA. From major economic indicatorsit seems that there will be a development to explore clues about the future of U.S. monetary policyaccording to Daiki Takei, President of Resona Holdings, it is expected that range-bound trading will continue until around the summer, when the earnings announcements for the April-June period will be released. "Many companies have announced conservative outlooks for the current fiscal year in their earnings reports, so stock prices are finding it difficult to gain upward momentum. In addition, the retreat of expectations for interest rate cuts in the United States is also starting to be noticed," he said, and stock prices are likely to remain lackluster even after next week.
As the earnings announcements come to an endmarket attention is once again turning to the monetary policies of Japan and the United StatesFollowing the positive surprise of the U.S. PMI last week, expectations for an early interest rate cut have diminished, and the outlook for inflation, the economy, and monetary policy has once again become uncertainThis week will be a week to confirm the likelihood of a U.S. interest rate cutwhich will be announced on the 30thThe announcement of the US April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is the most important event.In March, the strength of the core price index was demonstrated, increasing concerns about inflation pressure.Attention is focused on confirming the stability of inflation in PCE.It is an inflation indicator that the FRB emphasizes in determining the direction of policy, and the attitude of investors is likely to become more cautious ahead of the weekend announcement.With the results depending, it could potentially lead to significant market fluctuations due to investors adopting a wait-and-see attitude.In addition, with the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve District economic reports (Beige Book) on the 29th, and the announcement of the May Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index on the 31st, the mood to gauge those results is intensifying.Therefore, the mood to carefully observe these results becomes stronger.I guess.
This week's dollar-yen exchange rate is being watched as the anticipation of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve retreats.Whether the dollar will continue to be bought or not is the focus.At the Bank of Japan International Conference scheduled for the 27th,The comments of Governor Ueda and Deputy Governor Uchida regarding monetary policy are attracting attention.Whether there will be comments on monetary policy leading up to the June meeting is the key point. There is a possibility that the dollar/yen will fluctuate temporarily.
On the 31st, the April unemployment rate, job openings-to-applicants ratio, and May Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the central Tokyo area are scheduled to be released. If the result of the May Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) core is strong, there is a possibility that the yen will be bought due to speculation of additional monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan.
Earnings Reports and Economic Calendar for this week (5/27~5/31): Will the market continue to be dominated by NVIDIA? Expectations for buying opportunities in d...
Last week's market points
Currently, the dollar/yen is expected to face resistance in the 157 yen range, but if there are catalysts such as the US PCE Core Price Index, it could reach the 158 yen range. The situation where the low-interest yen is easily sold has not changed, but the demand-driven dollar buying is expected to provide support in the last week of the month. On the other hand, there is a sense of caution about intervention by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan to buy the yen, but the statement by US Treasury Secretary Yellen that "foreign exchange intervention should rarely be used and there should be sufficient warning before intervention" is expected to support the dollar-yen exchange rate.
Long-term interest rates reach 1.005%, attracting attention to bank stocks for the first time in 12 years.
NVIDIA, the strongest in "space", surprises in earnings! Will the momentum continue to new all-time highs?
Major US banks raise S&P500 target stock prices! NVIDIA's strong earnings and the US economy lead the way.
Hedge funds reduce holdings of large-cap technology stocks! The proportion of semiconductor stocks rises to a record high of 6.5%.
Ethereum surges! With the approval of Ethereum ETF, there is a possibility of a 60% increase! Related stocks have risen 62% since May.
FOMC minutes suggest a "long" path to rate cuts, with some mentioning rate hikes.
Last week, the Nikkei Average fell by 141.27 yen (0.36%) from the previous week to 2,8646.11 yen, marking the first decline in two weeks. The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond, a benchmark for long-term interest rates, briefly rose to 1.005% on the 24th,Records the highest level in about 12 years since April 2012It is affected by the expectation of the Bank of Japan's normalization of monetary policy and the trend of rising US long-term interest rates. Long-term interest rates reached the 1% mark on the 22nd.The reality of a world with interest rates has become a reality.The increase in interest rates contributes to the expansion of bank lending interest income and investment gains. $Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP)$ $Resona Holdings (8308.JP)$ $Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.JP)$ $Mizuho Financial Group (8411.JP)$Attention is focused on mega-banks such as .
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The earnings announced on the 22nd exceeded market expectations again, suggesting further prosperity for the semiconductor industry that supports the AI boom. The revenue forecast was significantly stronger than the consensus, and the quarterly dividend was increased by more than twice, and a stock split of 10 shares per share was also announced. Looking at the trend of past stock splits, Envidia's official stock split is expected to occur after the announcement of a stock split.There is a possibility of a strong upward trend (up to 67% increase)On the 23rd, the company's stock temporarily rose by 12%The company's stock temporarily rose by 12%し、reached a new all-time high,The gap with the second-ranked company, , is also narrowing $Apple (AAPL.US)$There is a view that sales will slow down due to the introduction of new products for AI semiconductorsDuring the earnings callしたのが大きい。ジェンスン・ファンCEOは次世代半導体の収益貢献が始まるなかでも、現在の主力製品の需要が途切れることはないと説明した。好業績を受け、ウォール街の大手銀が相次ぎエヌビディアの目標株価を引き上げ、最も強気な目標株価は1400ドルにも達している。
しかし、エヌビディア23日の大幅上昇は、他の銘柄に広がらず、「エヌビディア効果」は続かなかった。ダウ平均は、600ドル超安とThe largest drop in 1 year and 3 months.was recorded. On that day, the May US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).reached a high level not seen in over 2 years since April 2022, reigniting concerns about high prices.Even on the 24th in the Tokyo market.The Nvidia effect did not last.Semiconductor-related stocks led the decline. $Lasertec (6920.JP)$and, $Advantest (6857.JP)$ $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$such asThe decline in semiconductor stocks is noticeable.Takamasa Takada, of JP Morgan Securities, points out that the strength of Nvidia has prompted selling in other stocks and industries, leading to a focus on Nvidia shares.There were not a few investors who focused on Nvidia shares, as mentioned by Masanari Takada of JP Morgan Securities. This could benefit Japanese semiconductor-related companies, but it may be difficult to buy them with the same criteria as Nvidia.On the other hand, major Wall Street banks last week.buying with the same criteria as Nvidia is difficult.stated.
On the other hand, major Wall Street banks last week.JP Morgan's trading desk is in a hurry to upwardly revise the target stock price of the S&P 500.In the background of Nvidia's strong earnings and the resilience of the U.S. economy, JP Morgan's trading desk sees further upside potential in the S&P 500 index.Nvidia accounts for about one-fourth of the S&P 500's gains this year. While the pace may slow down, continued growth in the index is expected.Furthermore, one of the most well-known bears on Wall Street, Morgan Stanley's Wilson, expects the S&P 500 to reach new highs.5400BMO's Brian Belski has raised the year-end target for the S&P 500 to 4,000, with expectations for further upside.5600Among the major investment banks,The highest
Hedge fundsReduce shareholding of large-cap technology stocksOn the other hand,A wide range of companies benefiting from the AI boomAccording to a report dated the 21st, hedge funds are betting on Nvidia in the first quarter. $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$On the other hand, while the position of XXX was reduced, the position of XXX increased. Nevertheless, XXX remains the most popular long position among hedge funds. $Apple (AAPL.US)$According to the report, semiconductor stocks and electrical utility stocks such as XXX in the AI infrastructure sector were the most popular in the first quarter. The report also stated that the weight of semiconductor stocks in the long portfolios of US hedge funds rose sharply to a record high of 6.5% in the first quarter. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$However, the largest technology companies still have the most popular long positions among hedge funds. In the first quarter, the popularity of semiconductor manufacturers such as XXX and electrical utility companies increased the most in the AI infrastructure sector. $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$XXX and XXX in the first quarter $The AES Corp (AES.US)$According to the same report, the weight of semiconductor stocks in the long portfolios of US hedge funds rose sharply to a record high of 6.5% in the first quarter.According to the same report, the weight of semiconductor stocks in the long portfolios of US hedge funds rose sharply to a record high of 6.5% in the first quarter.した。 ヘッジファンドは人工知能分野の投資機会にますます重視しており、AI産業チェーンの各段階に積極的に投資is being carried out.
イーサリアムETFに対する米SECの反対が緩和されるかもしれないという市場の思惑から、ビットコインとイーサリアムは20日、全面高となり、関連銘柄も大幅に上昇した。そして、米SECは23日、イーサリアムと連動する現物ETFの導入を承認した。今回の承認により、The way for listing and trading of Ethereum physical ETF on stock exchanges has been opened.Ethereum has been 20%近く急騰した。QCPキャピタルは、イーサリアムETFの承認により、今後数カ月でイーサリアムがThere is a possibility of up to 60% increase.Bitcoin skyrocketed from $2000 to over $3000 within two weeks after the approval of the ETF. Since May, cryptocurrency-related stocks have shown strong growth. $Strategy (MSTR.US)$isMore than 60% $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$isClose to 50% $Coinbase (COIN.US)$and, $Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$isRoughly 10% increase.I am doing.
In the FOMC minutes released on the 22nd, it was revealed that there was a consensus that it is desirable to maintain policy interest rates at a high level for a longer period of time, and various participants have become more positive about the possibility of additional tightening if necessary. In contrast to the previous remarks by Chairman Powell of the FRB after the last FOMC meeting, which were negative about rate hikes, there seems to be a slightly more hawkish impression.
Source: MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Traders Web, Reuters, Nikkei newspaper
Earnings Reports and Economic Calendar for this week (5/27~5/31): Will the market continue to be dominated by NVIDIA? Expectations for buying opportunities in d...
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