This week's financial results and economic calendar (7/1-7/5) summer market has entered! Will it continue to soar or will it be adjusted?

This week's points
Japanese stocks this week are expected to rise moderately and round up the range, and there seems to be a possibility that the milestone of the 40,000 yen range will be tested again. However, it is easy to sell back when the Nikkei Average is around the 40,000 yen milestone. Even if it exceeds 40,000 yen, I think it will be difficult for the upper price to grow from a sense of arrival. As a shopping trend, due to rising long-term interest rates in Japan,Financial stocks such as banks and insurance are likely to be bought. Towards the second half of the week, the wait-and-see mood is expected to increase ahead of US employment statistics. Meanwhile, the fact that the dollar and yen maintain a weak yen trend is likely to support mainly export stocks. However, it is easy for imported stocks to become heavy, and it seems that brands such as eating out and retail are aware of the weight of the increase.

Domestically, it will be announced on the 1st for the Bank of Japan meetingJune Bank of Japan TankanInterest in it is high. The business condition judgment index (DI) of the large enterprise manufacturing industry is 11, and it is expected to remain flat from March. If the content further supports the Bank of Japan's early interest rate hike observations, which are rising due to the depreciation of the yen, it is likely to be a development that encourages interest rate increases and boosts value (undervalued) stocks and financial stocks. 5 days in the USThe US June employment statistics are a major focusIt becomes. According to the previous employment statistics for May, the number of people employed in the non-farm sector has exceeded market expectations, and US long-term bond yields have risen. In addition, the ISM manufacturing business climate index was announced on the 1st, the number of employment dynamics survey (JOLTS) job offers on the 2nd, and ADP employment statistics on the 3rd, and in response to theseHow the market views on the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy will changeIt also seems to influence the market price. Unless a rekindling of wage inflation is clearly shown, it is unlikely to be a major factor of change.

Starting this week, it will be July, and we will enter a full-scale summer market.The future direction of US stocks in the high price rangeOn the other hand, the market has shown a different opinion. The strategist at Deutsche BankAs earnings season approaches, a “period of silence”The stock buyback that entered into the market hit an all-time highThe possibility of another short-term fall for the S&P 500 index and the NasdaqIt is stated that there is. In contrast, Goldman SachsThe S&P 500 will hit a record high again in JulyI'm watching it. Since 1928, that year'sThe highest values are usually recorded in the first 2 weeks of JulyIt is stated. UBS Global Wealth Management said, “NVIDIA's turbulence has become a burden on market sentiment,The structural investment case for AI remains intactOn top of that, it mentions “I want to maintain a constructive outlook on a wider range of stocks amidst strong fundamentals.” Meanwhile,Maybe the hunt will expand to other sectors other than AI is an issue in the US stock market right now。

The US political situation continues. The US presidential election officially kicks off on November 5. The Democratic Party candidate President Biden and the Republican Party candidate former President Trump were each nominated, and the two who fought in the 2020 presidential election will face off again.What impact will the presidential election have on the US stock marketThe market is watching. In response, Goldman Sachs analyzed how institutional investors viewed the November election results.US stocksOn the other hand, the victory of Trump and the Republican Party is most favorable, and the victory of Biden and the Democratic Party is negative.U.S. BondsOn the other hand, it is most advantageous that the stalemate between the two major political parties continues, and since both parties tend to expand their deficits, even if either party wins, it is disadvantageous for US debt.dollarsIt is said that the victory of the Republican Party is more advantageous against it.

Is this week's yen exchange rate a nervous development with rough upward and downward price movements? Last week it hit a low for the first time in about 38 years, and the market's depreciation of the yen is getting stronger. Amid heightened sense of caution against yen buying intervention, in addition to the first vote for the House of Representatives election being held in France, notable economic indicators such as employment statistics were announced one after another in the United States. While the US is refraining from important indicators such as employment statistics, etc., the depreciation trend of the yen is likely to continue, and it seems that they will slowly search for lower prices while tug-of-war with a sense of intervention caution. However, the current situation is buying dollars and selling yen even if long-term US interest rates fall. There is a possibility that it will be a movement that tests how far a yen buying intervention can be introduced. (Research Director Takuya Kanda of the Gaitame.com Research Institute)

Last week's market price points
1. The Nikkei Average rebounded for the first time in 2 weeks, and the yen hit a low for the first time in about 38 years
2. “Ignite” expectations of interest rate cuts? The US PCE core, which is attracting attention from the Fed, cooled down as expected and recorded a low level for the first time in over 3 years
3. NVIDIA Shareholders' Meeting: Mr. Jenson Huang raises wages by 60% and predicts the next wave of AI!
4. Hedge funds change direction and “aggressively” sell US high-tech stocks!
5. Join Amazon's “2 trillion dollar club”! Who will join the “1 trillion dollar club” next?
6. Micron plummets in response to financial results! Will it be an opportunity to buy in the spotlight?
7. Will supermicro computers soon be adopted on the NASDAQ 100? Replaces Walgreens
8. Fierce battle! Trump-related stocks soared at the 1st US Presidential Debate

The Nikkei Average rebounded last week to 39,583.08 yen, 986.61 yen (2.56%) higher than the previous weekend, for the first time in 2 weeks. What attracted a great deal of interest last weekExchange Market Trendsthat's it. The depreciation of the yen didn't stop, and it was a psychological level and the previous intervention point160 yenClearing it has had an impact on the market. On the 26th1 dollar = 160 yen 88 senThe low price since 1986/12 was added, and the Japanese government/Bank of JapanIt broke through the low at the end of April this year when exchange intervention observations for yen purchases came out. Another dollar on the 28th =First half of the 161 yen rangeIt fell to. While the trend continues to be in the low range for the first time in about 38 years, the government and the Bank of JapanVigilance against yen buying intervention is also smoldering. In response to that, statements to control the depreciation of the yen by Treasurer Kanda Masato and Finance Minister Suzuki Shunichi seem to support the lower value of the yen.

Regarding US stocks, on 6/26, Goldman Sachs Prime Broker (PB)There is a new trend in market trendsI made that clear. According to the report,Over the past month, hedge funds have significantly oversold TMT brands (companies belonging to technology, media, and telecommunications), mainly semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment stocks, including NVIDIA(Reversed the year-to-date trend). According to Goldman, there is data on oversales in the US high-tech sector this monthThe biggest momentum since 2017That's it.

In terms of economic indicators, both the May US PCE Price Index and the PCE Core Price IndexIt slowed as expected. The core price index was at its lowest level since March 2021 compared to the previous year。It looked like it would support the argument for interest rate cuts by the end of the year.Traders tooThe Fed raised its rate cut forecast for this yearThat's it. According to CME's FedWatch tool,The probability that interest rates will be cut in September rose to 61.1% from 59.5% the day beforeI did it.