TSLA
Tesla
-- 410.440 NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 144.470 RGTI
Rigetti Computing
-- 19.0200 CRNC
Cerence
-- 19.330 PLTR
Palantir
-- 79.890 This week's earnings and economic calendar (7/1~7/5) enters the summer market! Will it continue to rise or will there be a correction?
It is anticipated that Japanese stocks will gradually rise this week and break through the range, with a potential retesting of the significant 40,000 yen level. However, the Nikkei average is susceptible to profit-taking around the 0.04 million yen level. Even if it surpasses 0.04 million yen, it is expected to struggle to rise further due to a temporary sense of achievement. In terms of stock trends, financial stocks such as banks and insurance companies are likely to be bought due to the rise in domestic long-term interest rates.like banks and insurance companies are likely to be bought。週後半にかけては、米国の雇用統計を控えて様子見ムードが高まるとみられている。一方、ドル円が円安基調を維持していることが、輸出株を中心に支えになりやすい。ただ、輸入株にとっては重しとなりやすく、外食や小売といった銘柄は上値の重さが意識されそうだ。
国内では、日銀会合に向けては1日発表の６月日銀短観への関心が高い。大企業製造業の業況判断指数(DI)は11と、3月から横ばいが予想されている。円安進行で高まる日銀の早期利上げ観測をさらに後押しする内容となれば、金利上昇を促し、バリュー（割安）株や金融株を押し上げる展開となりそう。米国では5日の米6月雇用統計が大きな焦点となる。前回5月の雇用統計では、非農業部門雇用者数が市場予想を上回り、米長期債利回りが上昇している。その他、1日にISM製造業景況指数、2日に雇用動態調査(JOLTS)求人件数 、3日にADP雇用統計の発表があり、これらを受けて米FRBの金融政策を巡る市場の見方がどのように変化するかも相場を左右しそう。賃金インフレの再燃を明確に示さない限りは、大きな変動要素にはならないと思われる。
Starting this week, we will enter the full-fledged summer market as July begins.The future direction of US stocks, which are at high levelsMarket shows different views on this. Strategists at Deutsche BankAs earnings season approaches, a 'quiet period'Entering a share buyback phase, which hits record highsThey mention the potential of a short-term pullback again in the S&P 500 index and the NASDAQOn the other hand, Goldman SachsS&P 500 might hit new all-time highs in Julyand is watching. Since 1928, the highest value of that year is usually recorded in the first two weeks of July.UBS Global Wealth Management stated, "Nvidia's volatility burdens market sentiment, but the structural investment case for AI remains intact."While mentioning that "amid solid fundamentals, they want to maintain a constructive outlook for a broader range of stocks."On the other hand, it is currently a challenge in the US stock market whether the search for opportunities will expand to sectors other than AI.The next focus will be on the US political situation.。
The crucial point in US political situation continues.The U.S. presidential election officially kicks off on November 5th, the voting day. Democratic candidate President Biden and Republican candidate Former President Trump have been nominated, and the two who competed in the 2020 presidential election will face off again.What impact will the presidential election have on the U.S. stock market? The market is paying attention.In response, Goldman Sachs analyzed how institutional investors view the election results in November.USA stocksFor Trump and the Republican Party, victory is the most favorable outcome, while Biden and the Democratic Party's victory is considered negative.US bonds As for the deadlock between the two major parties continuing is the most favorable, and both parties tend to increase deficits, so winning by either party would be disadvantageous for U.S. bonds.dollarsIt is considered advantageous for the Republican Party to win.
Is this week's yen exchange rate experiencing a volatile and nervous movement? Last week, it hit its lowest level in about 38 years, strengthening the market's anticipation for a weaker yen. Amid rising caution about yen buying interventions, the first round of voting for the lower house elections in France will take place and there will be successive releases of key economic indicators like employment statistics in the USA. With key indicators like US employment statistics approaching, a weak yen trend is likely to continue, with a cautious approach towards interventions and a gradual search for lower levels. However, the current situation prompts dollar buying and yen selling even if long-term US interest rates fall. There is a possibility that movements may test how far the yen needs to weaken before interventions are implemented. (Kanda Takuya, Director of the Foreign Exchange dot-com Research Institute)
1. The Nikkei Average rebounds after 2 weeks, with the yen hitting a 38-year low.
2. Can it 'ignite' rate cut expectations? The FRB's closely watched US PCE Core cools as expected, recording its lowest level in over 3 years.
3. NVIDIA Shareholders meeting: Mr. Jensen Huang raises wages by 60%, forecasting the next wave of AI!
4. Hedge funds shift gears, actively selling US high-tech stocks!
5. Amazon joins the '2 trillion dollar club'! Who's next to join the '1 trillion dollar club'?
6. Micron, sharp drop after earnings! Will it become a buying opportunity on the dip?
7. Super Micro Computer will soon be added to the Nasdaq 100? Replacing Walgreen
8. Fierce battle! In the first round of the US presidential debate, Trump-related stocks surged
Last week in the Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei average rebounded for the first time in two weeks, closing at ¥ 23.08, up 986.61 yen (2.56%) from the previous week. The focus of attention last week was the movement in the foreign exchange market.The dynamics of the exchange market persist. The yen's depreciation is relentless, having cleared the psychological level and the previous intervention point of 160 yen, impacting the market on the 26th.The dynamics of the exchange market persist. The yen's depreciation is relentless, having cleared the psychological level and the previous intervention point of 160 yen, impacting the market on the 26th.The dynamics of the exchange market persist. The yen's depreciation is relentless, having cleared the psychological level and the previous intervention point of 160 yen, impacting the market on the 26th.The dynamics of the exchange market persist. The yen's depreciation is relentless, having cleared the psychological level and the previous intervention point of 160 yen, impacting the market on the 26th.1 dollar = 160.88 yenmarking the lowest level since December 1986, following speculation of exchange rate intervention by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japanbreaking below the low point from the end of April this year when speculation of yen buying interventions emergedOn the 28th, it fell further to around 161 yen per dollarin the lower half of the 161 yen range. The movement continues in the lowest range in about 38 years, with lingering concerns about potential yen buying interventions by the government and the Bank of JapanMeanwhile, statements from Finance Minister Manabu Kanda and Minister of Finance Toshikazu Suzuki to deter yen depreciation seem likely to support the downside of the yenin the midst of lingering caution towards potential yen-buying interventions by the government and the Bank of JapanIn response, statements from Finance Minister Manabu Kanda and Minister of Finance Toshikazu Suzuki to curb yen depreciation are likely to lend support to the downside of the yen
Regarding US stocks, on June 26, Goldman Sachs's prime broker (PB) revealed that there is a new trend in the market flow.According to the report, Hedge funds have been significantly selling off TMT stocks (companies belonging to the Technology, Media, and Communications sector), focusing on semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, including Nvidia, over the past month, reversing the trend since the beginning of the year.The selling pressure in the US high-tech sector this month, with data from the became the strongest since 2017.Yes.
In terms of economic indicators, both the May US PCE price index and the same PCE core price index are It slowed down as expected. The core price index reached the lowest level since March 2021 compared to the previous year.。It became a good support for the argument for an interest rate cut within the year.Traders as wellRaise the Fed's interest rate cut forecast for this year.According to CME's FedWatch tool,Probability of a rate cut in September increased from 59.5% the previous day to 61.1%.Done.
Regarding individual stocks, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The shareholders' meeting held on June 26 ended in just 30 minutes, approving CEO Jensen Huang's 2024 fiscal year remuneration of $34 million,a 60% increase from the previous year.NVIDIA's executive compensation is strongly linked to performance, with the sharp increase in stock price driving up his remuneration. In addition, Jensen Huang emphasized NVIDIA's growth opportunities in the AI boom, including robotics and autonomous AI.The next wave of AI is expected to bring about $50 trillion worth of automation in heavy industries, where robot factories will involve robots operating to produce robot products.Jensen Huang highlighted NVIDIA's growth opportunities in the AI boom, including robotics and autonomous AI."The next wave of AI is expected to bring about $50 trillion worth of automation in heavy industries, where robot factories will involve robots operating to produce robot products,"Robotics and autonomous AI, bringing NVIDIA's growth opportunities in the AI boom. He stated, "The next wave of AI is expected to bring about $50 trillion worth of automation in heavy industries, where robot factories will involve robots operating to produce robot products."Nvidia is benefiting from thishe pointed out. Juan further stated that the Blackwell-based chip is scheduled to be announced in the fourth quarter of this year, and he expects it to be one of the most successful products in the company's history and even in the history of computing.the most successful productand anticipated to become
The market capitalization of large US high-tech stocks other than Nvidiacontinues to achieve new milestones、The boom in the stock market brought about by AI is still ongoinghighlighting the fact. usa $Amazon (AMZN.US)$The market capitalization of usa on the 26th has reached for the first time 2 trillion dollars.After nvidia, a major player in the technology sector, this milestone achievement has been reached for the first time. usa, following nvidia, this milestone achievement has been reached for the fifth time by a us company. $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$、 $Apple (AAPL.US)$、 $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$The market capitalization of nasdaq on the 26th has reached for the first time 2 trillion dollars.After nvidia, a major player in the technology sector, this milestone achievement has been reached for the fifth time by a us company.It became. The growth of the market capitalization is being driven by the strong growth of artificial intelligence and cloud business. The market is nextAttention is focused on which companies will join the "1 trillion dollar club".As of June 27th, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$、 $Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$、 $Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$、 $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$such as,Several companies are approaching the "1 trillion dollar club".It has become a leading candidate.
Was in the spotlight last week $Micron Technology (MU.US)$earningsachieved a turnaround to profitability. While revenue and profits exceeded market estimates, the mid-range of revenue forecasts for the June-August period remained in line with consensus expectations. Some investors had high expectations, so the results were somewhat disappointing.somewhat unsatisfactory contentdropped 8% in after-hours trading8% dropselling spread to other major semiconductor stocks as well. However,Based on the favorable performance outlook for 2025,、This decline may be an opportunity to buy on the dip.。
$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$After being included in the S&P 500, there is a high possibility of being selected for the Nasdaq 100.The company's stock has recorded an increase of over 200% since the beginning of the year. On the 27th, the second largest drugstore chain in the USA, $Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA.US)$announced plans to close 'a large number of' unprofitable stores in the USA in response to continued poor performance. Following the announcement, the company's stock plummeted by 22.2%.た。一部のアナリストによると、スーパー・マイクロは、業績不振のウォルグリーン（Walgreens）に代わってナスダック100指数に採用される見通し。現在、ウォルグリーンの時価総額は約10.5 billionドルで、ナスダック100指数の時価総額の0.05％を占め、組み入れ基準の0.1％を下回っており、時価総額では最小の構成銘柄であり、「外される」リスクに直面Is doing.
トランプ関連株は今年何度も活発な動きを見せており、今週は反発した。米大統領選に向け、初の討論会が27日に開かれる。今回の討論会は、バイデン大統領とトランプ前大統領による4年ぶりの直接対決で、選挙戦の行方を占う大一番になる。 $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$The semiconductor manufacturing equipment related to technologies like lasers is strong, with a psychological improvement due to the recovery of NVIDIA's stock in the U.S.年初来で100％超上昇Doing. Following the debate on the 27th, before the close on the 28th.Temporary spike of over 10%.Done.
Source: MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Traders Web, Reuters, Nikkei newspaper
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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よろぴこ : Every year, July is a season when stock prices tend to rise for Japanese stocks. When I was taken aback by this, adjustments were suddenly made in August and September, and they were impatient and cut losses. Here's where I'm worried about whether to secure a profit and reorganize, or whether to hold it in anticipation that business performance will improve due to the depreciation of the yen in April-6.
マンチカンのマチ よろぴこ : Such testimonials are extremely useful.