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This week's earnings and economic calendar (7/22-7/25) will see a full-fledged announcement of American earnings! Will the semiconductor stock decline be limited to a local adjustment?

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moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Jul 19, 2024 22:06
Points for this week
A solid development is expected for Japanese stocks this week. The Nikkei average is likely to see a rebound as a result of the over ¥1,000 decline last week.Buyers aiming for autonomous reboundare likely to enter. On the other hand, earnings of major companies at home and abroad will be announced, and individual stocks will be searched based on performance trends.Following the recent declines,stock picking is likely to continue.Buy on dips.However, the following week will see the monetary policy decision meetings of the FOMC and the Bank of Japan, among other things, which could act as support for the market. $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$It is unlikely that there will be a significant increase as major US tech companies, such as earnings reports, are looming. On the other hand, if the exchange rate shifts further towards yen appreciation, selling pressure may emerge mainly in export-related stocks, warranting caution.
In Japan, $Nidec (6594.JP)$focus is on earnings reports. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, there is a possibility of a rapid recovery from the January-March period, driven by strong demand for AI servers, among other factors.Shinkei Asset Management fund manager Naoki Fujiwara pointed out that if orders continue to show signs of improvement, even without upward revisions, uncertainties about the future are likely to dissipate.Moreover, earnings announcements from Vroom and others are scheduled for the 26th. If there is a reconsideration of semiconductor stocks due to favorable performance, it is likely to contribute to an overall market uptrend. $Screen Holdings (7735.JP)$Ya $Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063.JP)$could support the overall market uptrend if there is a reconsideration of semiconductor stocks due to favorable performance.
In the USA, the impact on the market is significant. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$Ya $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$is scheduled to announce earnings. Since the beginning of this year, Google stocks, which have heavily invested in AI, have been steadily gaining momentum.up nearly 30% since the beginning of the year,rising over 10% after the first quarter earnings report at the end of April.and soaring more than 10%, attracting high attention.According to market expectations, Google's second-quarter revenue is expected to increase by 12.98% compared to the previous year.An increase of 12.98%.の84.288 billionドル、EPSは同27.71%増の1.84ドル。それに対し、テスラの第2四半期の売上高は前年比0.93%減の24.695 billionドル、EPSは同37.46%減の0.49ドルと予想されている。
今週、Will the decline in semiconductor stocks lead to localized adjustments without causing widespread risk aversion?This has been attracting attention. Regarding the recent adjustment in semiconductor-related sectors, Mr. GCIAM's Ikeda stated, "After confirming the earnings of the upcoming US high-tech companies, if the results are not bad, it is likely that there will be buybacks." Investment strategist at GlobalX Management, Mr. Billy Leung, mentioned, "The recent decline in semiconductors is more attributed to the deterioration in market sentiment than actual fundamental concerns."The deterioration of market sentimentplays a significant role. Trade restrictions on semiconductors have been in place for a while, and the gradual tightening measures should not have a significant impact."
Also, the movement of exchange rates is being closely watched. A rise in the yen exchange rate is expected this week. The unwinding of unwind positions in the yen due to the deteriorating risk environment is likely to continue."On the other hand, expectations of a rate hike at the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting at the end of the month have diminished, posing a potential drag on the yen. If excess short positions on the yen have been somewhat corrected in the past two weeks, the dollar-yen exchange rate is likely to respond more directly to the outlook for monetary policies in the US and Japan, as well as market sentiment."While intervention concerns linger, if US indicators exceed expectations, the dollar is likely to be bought easily. Depending on economic indicators and market sentiment outlook, the dollar-yen exchange rate is expected to show a direct response. Despite looming intervention concerns, the dollar is likely to be bought easily if US indicators surpass expectations."
For economic indicators, in the US on the 25th, data for April-JunePreliminary estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)On the 26th, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key focus of the US Federal Reserve, will be announced.Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE Core Price Index is expected to increase by 0.2% compared to the previous month, expanding from the 0.1% increase in May. If inflation slows significantly, the dollar is likely to face selling pressure due to a decrease in long-term US interest rates.1. The Nikkei Average sees a significant decline for the first time in four weeks, hit by a strong yen and a double blow of weakness in US tech stocks! Are the losers of the Trump Trade scenario? 2. Taiwan's TSMC announces earnings that exceed expectations in both performance and outlook, experiencing a sharp drop due to political risks. 3. Semiconductor stocks experience a rapid decline globally! Is this a buying opportunity on the dip?
This week's earnings and economic calendar (7/22-7/25) will see a full-fledged announcement of American earnings! Will the semiconductor stock decline be limite...
Last week's market points
4. Weekly earnings report: BofA revenue forecast beats expectations with a strong growth of 6% year-on-year. Keep an eye out for potential opportunities in the Japanese market.
2. Consensus estimates expect significant growth from Netflix, propelled by the successful global expansion of its streaming platform. Investors are advised to closely monitor earnings reports for any surprises.
3. Market sentiment remains positive towards growth tech companies, especially in the semiconductor sector. Focus on strong performing stocks while considering investment strategies amid market uncertainties.
4. 'God of Investment' Mr. Buffett is 'profitable' again! Funds flowing into value stocks.
5. US stocks 'Mag 7' plummet, 'rate cut trades' and 'Trump trades' intensify!
6. The rapid rise of US small cap stocks is nothing more than short cover, according to BofA.
Last week in the Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei average fell significantly by 1126.89 yen (2.74%) to 0.04 million 63.79 yen from the previous week, marking a sharp decline for the fourth consecutive week. This was attributed to the Bank of Japan's intervention in buying yen.Strong yenWith the Biden administration's strengthening of semiconductor export restrictions, 'God of Investment' Mr. Buffett is 'profitable' again! Funds flowing into value stocks.Volatility in high-tech stocks such as semiconductors and others.isDow IncThe Nikkei average, which was comfortably updating its record high, was hit hard and quickly reversed. In the midst of this, funds are flowing from large cap to australian small/mid capand the Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Market 250 Index, predominantly composed of emerging growth companies, remained relatively strong. However, mirroring the investment popularity in the US stock market, the rise of Japan's australian small/mid cap stocks, which are currently showing strong movement, may be short-lived.There is a risk of interest rate hikes for financially weak australian small/mid cap stocks due to differing financial policy situations, as the US is expected to cut interest rates by the end of the year, while the Bank of Japan is exploring the timing of additional rate hikes.
Last week in the US stock market, Dow IncandShapes the brightness and darkness of the Nasdaq index.From a trading perspective, a rate cut historically tends to outperform, and the average performance is high during rate cut cycles. $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$is $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$On the other hand, from the perspective of 'Trump 2.0', there is a tendency for diving. Furthermore, funds that have profited from high-tech stocks are seeking opportunities.President Trump tends to support a return to traditional energy and manufacturing industries in the United States.In addition, funds that have profited from high-tech stocks are seeking opportunities as inflows into traditional value stocks and cyclical stocks.Inflows into traditional value stocks and cyclical stocks as funds that have profited from high-tech stocks seek chances.していることも、ダウ平均の上昇を論理的に裏付けている。一方、トランプ氏が副大統領候補に指名したバンス氏は「巨大テックの寡頭制」に対抗する立場にあると主張。政治に過度な権力と影響力を行使しているとして大手ハイテク企業を批判した。そのため投資家はテック大手に対する彼の姿勢に注意を払い、市場の動向や潜在的な政策変更をよりよく理解する必要がある。
AI関連の半導体は、先週は一気に利益確定売りが強まっていた。バイデン米政権が日本とオランダに半導体製造装置の対中規制の強化を求めたと伝わり、世界で半導体株が総崩れとなっている。特に、17日、 $PHLX Semiconductor Index (.SOX.US)$It fell by 6.8% and experienced the largest drop since the Corona shock in March 2020. The USA $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$dropped by 7%, $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$declined by over 10%. The NASDAQ Composite Index, with a high proportion of tech stocks, recorded a 3% decline, the first in about 1 year and 7 months. While the strength of semiconductor demand backed by the AI boom has been confirmed, the new political risk poses a continued downward pressure on semiconductor stocks.
The earnings reports of Taiwan's TSMC, ASML, and Netflix were the highlights of last week. $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$The quarterly earnings announced by provided reassurance to the semiconductor market, but there is growing market caution due to the new political risks, including Biden administration's policies towards China and reports that former President Trump accused Taiwan of stealing American semiconductor technology. On the 17th, it plunged by over 8%.Similarly, $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$The financial results for April-June were strong, but due to geopolitical concerns, the stock priceplunged by over 13% in just 2 days.Looking at regional markets, ASML's market share in China remained flat compared to the previous quarter, still67% and high (China has been ASML's largest market for four consecutive quarters). Domestically, revenue from sales to ChinaAccounting for 40% of the total.One of the industry leaders, $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$from the 17th to the 18th,declined by about 16%,resulting in a market capitalization decrease of 2.6 trillion yen.
$Netflix (NFLX.US)$also announced earnings reports, exceeding expectations for earnings per share, revenue, and significantly surpassing forecasted paid streaming net additions. It is expanding its lead over competitors. By cracking down on password sharing and introducing ad-supported plans, the company thrived following the strong economy of 2020, achieving the second-best first half of the year. However, with revenue forecasts falling below expectations and subscriber growth slowing compared to the previous quarter, the stock temporarily dropped nearly 7% in after-hours trading, but is gradually being bought back.Following the prosperous 2020, it became the second best first half.However, due to lower-than-expected revenue forecast and slower subscriber growth compared to the previous quarter, the stock temporarily dropped by almost 7% in after-hours trading, gradually recovering as it is being bought back.
On the other hand,Expectations for interest rate cuts.andIn the "Trump Trade".as the market gets excited, there is also growing anticipation for the rotation into value stocks and small cap stocks.led by Mr. Buffett, $Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$is representative of value stocks.reached a new all-time high,It has risen by over 20% throughout the year, showcasing its prominence in value stocks. $UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$Also,A rise of over 10% this week.Shown.
The important index Russell 2000, for American small cap stocks, is also performing well. Interest rate cuts enhance expectations of economic recovery, Trump's tax cuts and 'America First' policy benefit domestic companies, especially.According to Mr. Kabura of Societe Generale, "Trump 2.0's potential policies will have a positive impact on a wide range of transactions, so the US elections are likely to induce frequent rotational trading."However, some analysis indicates that this isIt's just a short-term rise.Warning of the possibility. BofA shares a similar view.Short coverAn important factor leading the rise of the Russell 2000and particularly pointed out that stocks that were heavily shorted previously performed the best. Savita Subramanian, the head of BofA's US equity and quant strategy, mentioned that a third of the Russell 2000 constituentsare still holding losses.pointed out.
出所:FactSet、MINKABU、Bloomberg、investing、ロイター
This week's earnings and economic calendar (7/22-7/25) will see a full-fledged announcement of American earnings! Will the semiconductor stock decline be limite...
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