Next week's financial results and economic calendar (7/22 to 7/25) US financial results announcements are in full swing! Will the depreciation of semiconductor stocks remain limited to local adjustments?

Next week,Will the depreciation of semiconductor stocks remain local adjustments without leading to widespread risk aversion, is attracting attention. Regarding semiconductor-related matters, where adjustment colors have been strengthened so far, Mr. GCIAM Ikeda said, “We will confirm the financial results of US high-tech companies that will be in full swing from now on, and if the details are not bad, it seems that buybacks will also come in.” Global X Management investment strategist Billy Leung said, “The current decline in semiconductors is rather than an actual fundamental concern,Deteriorating market sentimentThat's largely due to it. Trade restrictions on semiconductors have existed for a long time and are an ongoing issue, and progressive tightening measures should not have a significant impact,” he said.

Exchange rate trends are also attracting attention. The yen exchange rate is expected to rise sharply next week. A reversal of carry trade is occurring due to the deterioration of the risk environment due to the deterioration of the risk environment by selling yen with low interest rates and buying dollars with high interest ratesIt seems that the movement to resolve yen selling positions will continue. Meanwhile, interest rate hikes observed at the monetary policy meeting to be held by the Bank of Japan at the end of the month have receded, and there is a high possibility that it will weigh on yen. Meanwhile, if excessive yen sales have been corrected to some extent in the past 2 weeks, there is a high probability that the dollar yen will show an honest reaction in the future depending on the outlook for Japan-US monetary policy and the light and dark market sentiment. Although the sense of caution against intervention is smoldering, it is easy for dollars to be bought if the rice index rises.

As for economic indicators, April to June 25th in the USPreliminary gross domestic product (GDP) figuresThe US Federal Reserve will place importance on the 26thPersonal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Indexwill be announced. The PCE core price index, which excludes food and energy, which fluctuates greatly, rose 0.2% from the previous month, and growth is expected to expand from the 0.1% rise in May. If inflation slows down significantly, it is likely that selling pressure on the dollar will intensify through a decline in long-term US interest rates.

This week's market price points
1. The Nikkei Average fell sharply for the first time in 4 weeks, and the appreciation of the yen and the depreciation of US tech stocks were double punched! to the loser in the Trump trade?
2. Taiwan TSMC's financial results and forecasts have exceeded expectations! Plummeting due to political risk
3. Semiconductor stocks suddenly braked in the world! Is this an opportunity to buy in the spotlight?
4. Mr. Buffett, the “god of investment”, “makes money” again! Cash flow into value stocks
5. The US stock “Mag 7” has fallen, and “interest rate cut trades” and “Trump trades” have become active!
6. The sharp rise in US small-cap stocks is just a short-term short cover = BofA

The Nikkei Average fell sharply for the first time in 4 weeks to 0.04 million63.79 yen (1126.89 yen) lower than the previous weekend in the Tokyo stock market this week. The Bank of Japan's yen buying intervention (depreciation of yen), due to the Biden administration's tightening of semiconductor export restrictions to ChinaTurbulence in high-tech stocks such as semiconductorsButdouble punchThen, the Nikkei Average, which had comfortably updated its highest value, turned into a sharp decline due to the appearance of being thrown into the void. Among them,Funds flow from large stocks to small to medium stocksThe Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Market 250 Index, which is composed mainly of emerging growth companies, was relatively strong. However, in line with investment popularity in the US stock market, the rise in small and medium-sized stocks in Japan, which is currently showing strong movementsThe possibility of ending in a short lifeThere is. This is because the Bank of Japan has different monetary policy circumstances, such as searching for the timing of additional interest rate hikes, compared to the United States, where interest rate cuts are expected by the end of the year, and rising interest rates are a risk for small and medium-sized stocks with weak finances.

Russell 2000, an important US small-cap index, is also doing well. Interest rate cuts have raised expectations for economic recovery, and Mr. Trump's tax cuts and “America First” policy are aimed at US domestic companies, especiallyFurther stimulate the earnings expectations of small and medium enterprisesI'll do it. However, in some analyses, thisIt's just a short-term increaseWarning that there is a possibility. BofA has a similar view,short coverAn important factor driving the rise of Russell 2000In particular, it was pointed out that stocks that had been sold violently for a long time were the strongest. Savita Subramanian, BofA's US Equities and Quants Strategy Officer, is a constituent stock of Russell 2000One-third still has lossesI pointed it out.