Next week's financial results and economic calendar (7/29~8/2) A turbulent week! Will the Japan-US central bank meeting and US high-tech settlement decide the fate of the market?

Next week's points
Next week's Japanese stocksAn eventful developmentIt looks like it's going to be. While the dollar and yen are showing unstable movements,Japan-US central bank eventsIt was held, and since the financial market is trying to determine the extent of mitigation, it is easy for a sense of caution to increase in the market. Under these circumstances,Financial results announcements for major US tech companiesThere has been a huge push, and attention is being paid to whether there will be a rewind movement in high-tech stocks, which have been weak recently. Other than that, on 8/2US July employment statisticsis scheduled, and it seems like it will be a development you won't be able to take your eyes off.

The Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting on the 30th to 31st. Bank of JapanDeciding on a reduction plan for government bond purchasesalong withThe biggest focus is on whether to raise additional interest rates. According to the Economist Survey70% expect to maintain the status quo, and 30% expect interest rate hikesI'll do it. Just because the way we look at the market is divided,Concerns that stock price movements will become rough depending on exchange rates after policy announcementsThere is. As far as I can see Governor Ueda's cautious actions up until now, it seems that government bond purchase reductions will only be decided on an appropriate scale under normal circumstances. Even if interest rate hikes are forced, only after the market has already moved drasticallyThe feeling of exhaustion seems to spreadthat's it. However, even if there is no interest rate hike this time, there is also a possibility that future possibilities will be clearly suggested at press conferences etc.

Financial results for the fiscal year ending April to 6 to be announced by Japanese financial institutions soon includeThe effects of the cancellation of negative interest rates by the Bank of Japan were fully reflected for the first timeIt will be done. At the marketThe driving force behind the rise in Japanese stocksStrong earnings are expected. Since the Bank of Japan is expected to implement additional interest rate increases by the end of the year,Expectations that bank profitability will improveIt's getting higher. What is Bloomberg's bank with a high share of domestic assets and Bank of Japan current accountsProfit sensitivity to interest rate increases will be higherThat's the forecast. Invesco Asset Management strategist David Chao said, “Most of the upward revisions to this fiscal year's earningsfinancial industryI think it will come from.”

Meanwhile, with regard to “rotation,” where stocks driving the market price are replaced, many market participants cite that the view that the performance of small to medium stocks and business cycle stocks will improve is supported by financial results announcements of individual companies as a condition for continuing rotation. According to LSEG data, the constituent companies of Russell 2000 are in the April-6 fiscal yearProfit increased close to 18%As a result, it is expected that the decline in profit compared to the same period last year, which has continued for 5 quarters, will come to a stop.

The dollar is likely to move nervously next week. Depending on the details of the Bank of Japan meeting and President Kazuo Ueda's press conference, there is a possibility that there will be rough price movements involving price ranges. If the Bank of Japan decision meeting leaves interest rates unchanged and government bond purchases are reduced to 3 trillion yen after 2 years, as expected by the market.”Buy with rumors and sell with facts” and the yen carry trade was resumedThere is a possibility that the yen will depreciate rapidly againThere is. However, it seems that the upper price of the dollar to yen will be limited. In addition to speculations about the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, the depreciation of the dollar and appreciation of the yen during the week is also due to the fate of the US presidential election. In opinion polls related to the US presidential election, the approval rating of former President Trump, which was expected to advance with tax reduction measures, has declined, and the approval ratings for Vice President Harris are antagonizing. Meanwhile, I am concerned about trends such as US semiconductor-related stocks, which hold the key to global stock trends. If the adjustment color seems to get stronger,Yen buying pressure to avoid riskSo, I would like to consider the possibility that the appreciation of the yen will further strengthen in the short term.

This week's market points
1. The Nikkei Average continued to drop drastically for 2 weeks and was engulfed in a whirlpool of major crashes! A drop of 4300 yen or more in 2 weeks
2. The impact of correcting the dollar to yen exchange rate and dollar appreciation! Plumped to 151 yen at 1 o'clock
3. US stocks, financial season turbulence! The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Index fell the worst since the end of 2022
4. Tesla and Alphabet plummet after financial results were announced! Impact of AI investments and EV sales
5. A sign of slowing inflation without the US economy falling into a slump? US GDP is stronger than expected! The US PCE core price index shows a calm in inflation　
6. Confusion in the US presidential election, Biden's withdrawal and Trump trade shake the market

The Nikkei Average continued to drop drastically for 2 weeks to 0.03 million7667.41 yen, 2396.38 yen (5.98%) lower than the previous weekend. hereThe Nikkei Average fell by 4300 yen or more in 2 weeksIt is no exaggeration to say that it was a major crash. In particular, on the 25th, when the price of the dollar and yen dropped to the 152 yen level (then fell to the 151 yen level),The biggest drop this yearIt recorded a depreciation of 1285 yen, and the rate of decline on a closing price basis exceeded 10%,Entering an adjustment phaseIt became. There is also a part where the rapid stock price adjustment of Japanese stocks was involved in global risk off, but directly, speculation about the Japan-US central bank monetary policy meeting scheduled for next week was amplified in a negative direction.

What is the exchange rate of the dollar and yenYen appreciated to 151 yenIt has progressed. It progressed rapidly in half a month after the 161 yen level was attached on the 11th when the US CPI was announced. The movement to rewind the yen selling position has accelerated in response to observational reports that the Bank of Japan will consider additional interest rate hikes at the monetary policy meeting next week and statements by Secretary General Mogi Toshimitsu of the Liberal Democratic Party.Global stock depreciation was also a factor boosting yenIt has become. After that, the dollar was slightly bought back in response to preliminary US GDP figures that exceeded market expectations.

As for the US economic indicators, the preliminary US real gross domestic product (GDP) value for the 2nd quarter announced on the 25thIt greatly exceeded market expectations. Private consumption also exceeded expectations. In response to this, dollars and yen were rapidly being bought back. The PCE core price index, which emphasizes the Federal Reserve, showed only a slight increase in June. Also, private consumption remained strong.A bright sign for monetary authorities aiming to slow inflation without causing the economy to fall into a slumpIt became.

The fact that the US presidential election situation is rapidly changing is also having an impact on the market price. Immediately after the attempted assassination of former President Trump occurred, US President Biden announced his withdrawal from the election campaign and handed the baton to Vice President Harris. According to the most recent “approval rating,” Mr. Trump48.2%Mr. Harris46.2%that's it. The question is how the market price will move depending on the election. Mr. Trump appealed for a correction to the appreciation of the dollar,Abolition of energy production regulationsI'm looking for it.A favorable attitude towards crypto assetsIt shows. In response to this, there is a large probability that Mr. Harris will follow “bidenomics” up until now,Dissemination of EVs (electric vehicles) and renewable energy for climate change countermeasuresI'm going to sue.