Next week's financial results and economic calendar (7/8 to 7/12) will enter the financial results season! Will US stocks rise across the board?
Japanese stocks are expected to consolidate in the 0.04 million yen range next week. Stock appreciation against the backdrop of expectations of lower US interest rates has become a tailwind, and it seems that purchases expecting corporate performance will also enter. On the other hand, most ETFs linked to TOPIX and the Nikkei Average will settle on the 8th or 10th. Stock selling pressure to generate distributions has increased, and it seems that the market will weigh on the market. Domestically, next week $Fast Retailing(9983.JP$、 $Seven & i Holdings(3382.JP$、 $Ryohin Keikaku(7453.JP$There are many financial results announcements, mainly in retail, etc.Individual shopping becomes boomingYou can expect that. Chief strategist Hiroshi Namioka of T&D Asset Management said, “Domestic economic indicators, such as the Bank of Japan Tankan in June, show a recovery trend,The possibility that the number of companies announcing upward revisions to business results will increase in the future has increased” he says. Currently, it is expected that there are not a few investors who have missed the rise in stock prices, so even after next weekMotivation to push buying can easily lead to price consolidation at 0.04 million yen of the Nikkei AverageIt's called. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is scheduled to hold bond market participant meetings on the 9th and 10th, and if it becomes clear that the reduction scale of government bond purchases will exceed market expectations, it will be easier for funds to go to value (undervalued) stocks as domestic interest rates rise.
The US stock market entered July while maintaining strong performance. Historically, on average, July is a strong month of the year for US stocks. According to Dow Jones Market Data, during this period, the S&P 500An average increase of 1.7% in JulyThen, with a probability of 60% or more, it exceeded the opening price and the transaction was closed. Furthermore,We will enter the 2nd quarter earnings season starting next weekI'll do it. Financial giants $JPMorgan(JPM.US$Ya $Citigroup(C.US$It is scheduled to announce financial results. According to FactSet, earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter of the S&P 500 constituent stocks8.8% increase from previous yearandWill it be the highest growth since the 1st quarter of '22It's an expectation. By sector, “communication services (18.5%),” “healthcare (16.9%),” “IT (16.1%),” and “energy (14.7%)” are expected to show high EPS growth rates.
In this fiscal season, attention is drawn not only to US super-large stocks, but also to whether companies other than the US super-large stock M7 can catch up with M7 in profit growth rates. For some market participantsThe trend of higher US stocks extends beyond the super-large stock M7Expectations have surfaced. According to LSEG,The difference in profit rate is shrinkingIt is seen as. M7's profit growth rate for the first quarter was 51.8% compared to the previous year. The rate of increase in profit for the S&P 500 index constituent stocks excluding M7 was 1.3%. The profit growth rate forecast for the second quarter is 29.7% for M7 and 7.2% for anything other than M7. The difference in profit growth rates is expected to narrow further in the latter half of the year.
Also, be aware that there is a possibility that US political developments surrounding the US presidential election will have an impact on financial markets. It's been about 4 months until the US presidential election in November. Mr. Trump of the Republican Party had an advantage in the US presidential election, and the “if tiger” changed to a consensus that “almost tiger” was “almost tiger,” and this isMarket shopping flowIt has also come to control it.Selling pressure is increasing in the US bond market. Investors believe that policies such as tax cuts will lead to widening budget deficits and accelerating inflation.
Economic indicators are scheduled to be announced on the 11thJune Consumer Price Index (CPI)On the 12thProducer Price Index (PPI)is scheduled to be announced. Market forecasts for core CPI excluding food and energy, which fluctuate greatly, rose 0.2% from the previous month. Growth is expected to level off from May. Since it was possible to confirm a slowdown in inflation in the May CPI and PCE, if a slowing trend is confirmed in the June CPI, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Fed will increase. Other than economic indicators, it will be held on the 9th and 10thFederal Reserve Chairman Powell's Congressional TestimonyIt's also noteworthy. US CPI and PPI have shown a slowing trend, and there is a possibility that FRB Chairman Powell's congressional testimony will intensify.
The dollar-yen exchange rate next week is likely to continue fighting and defending in the high range for the first time in 38 years. The US CPI and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's congressional testimony are expected to influence the dollar,The point is whether early interest rate cut observations by the US Federal Reserve will be further strengthenedIt becomes. Meanwhile, at the bond market participant meeting held by the Bank of Japan, if it is conveyed what kind of discussions were made about the reduction in government bond purchases, it is likely to cause market turbulence.
1. The Nikkei Average continues to rise drastically, and the highest value in history is being updated! TOPIX hits an all-time high for the first time in about 34 and a half years
2. Tesla Stock “Explodes”! What's the next detonator?
3. Mr. Pelosi, the “God of Investment on Capitol Hill,” invests in NVIDIA and Broadcom! Selling Tesla
4. Chairman Powell speaks out about the “pigeon faction”! Most major Wall Street banks expect their first rate cuts to be in September
5. The US economic indicators have been weak one after another! The number of people employed in the non-farm sector was drastically revised downward, and the unemployment rate rose to a high level for the first time in two and a half years
The Nikkei Average continued to rise drastically this week to 0.04 million912.37 yen, 1329.29 yen (3.36%) higher than the previous weekend. Japanese stocks have been solid since the beginning of July, and the Nikkei Average has recovered the psychological milestone of 40,000 yen for the first time in about 3 months and is currently in the highest price range in history, and the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) also hit an all-time high for the first time in 34 and a half years.
What are the biggest highlights of individual US stocks this weekThe “explosion” of Tesla stockThat's it. Tesla has been rising for 7 consecutive business days since 6/24,An increase of approximately 35%I'm doing it. Entering JulyUp over 24% in just 3 daysIt has done so, and it is a rate of increase that overwhelms other stocks. In particular, the number of car deliveries for the 2nd quarter, which was announced on the 2nd, exceeded expectations,Stock prices rose more than 10%I did it. Buying spread to other high-tech stocks, and the S&P 500 hit the 5500 mark for the first time on the same day.Instead of NVIDIA, which began to stall, $Apple(AAPL.US$Ya $Amazon(AMZN.US$The US super-large stock “M6,” etc., has slowly risen since June, and supports the S&P 500 index. like this,NVIDIA will change the driving force of stock appreciation from NVIDIA to TeslaThere has also been speculation.Tesla's future detonatorAs for the analyst,Financial results announcement on July 23withRobotaxi debut on August 8thIt is said that there is.Multiple analysts' target stock price increases were reported。
On the other hand,“Capitol Hill's God of Investment”Former Speaker of the House of Representatives, called Nancy Pelosi, submitted a recent position information disclosure statement. According to the documents, Pelosi $Broadcom(AVGO.US$with $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$Invest a lot of money inWhile doingTesla and $Visa(V.US$Sell shares ofI did it. Specifically, on 24/6/24, 20 Broadcom call options with an exercise price of 800 dollars and an expiration date of 2025/6/20 were purchased. Two days later, I bought 0.01 million shares of NVIDIA. Meanwhile, 2,500 Tesla shares were sold on 6/24, and from the time of the previous purchasedown approximately 47%Doing it. If Pelosi sells in a few days, losses will be drastically reduced. What is noteworthy is that Pelosi is in this Broadcom deal,Already 15% return in just 10 daysIt means they're raising it. Broadcom1-10 stock split next FridayIt is planned to be carried out.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended the financial symposium debate on the 2nd and acknowledged that although he avoided making specific guidance statements about the initial interest rate cut period, considerable progress had been made towards controlling inflation. It was also emphasized that further evidence was necessary for interest rate cuts,It is seen as a slightly dovish statement in the market, and expectations for interest rate cuts are growing. Regarding the interest rate cut period, the US Federal Reserve said “interest rate cuts are inappropriate until additional information is obtained that deepens confidence that the inflation rate is heading towards the target” etc. at the FOMC in June on the 3rdThere was a succession of cautious opinions on early interest rate cutsThe minutes of the meeting were made public. Interest rates were expected to be cut only once in the June dot plot. However, at major Wall Street banks,Interest rate cuts implemented 2 timesThere are still 7 institutions that think that, and mostThe first rate cut will be in SeptemberExpected.
Furthermore,This week's US economic indicators were weak one after another. The ISM non-manufacturing business index fell below the standard of 50 and was unexpectedly weak. It looks like the deterioration in business confidence in the service industry, which the Fed is wary of, was clearly shown. ADP employment statistics had also been announced, but they also fell short of expectations,It showed the cooling of employment. According to the US employment statistics for June to be announced on the 5th, while growth in the number of employed people slowed down, the unemployment rate rose, and the content strengthened observations that the US financial authorities would begin cutting interest rates within the next few months. Nick Timiraos, a Fed watcher, said that even if the labor market slowly cools down,There is a possibility that the US economy will fall into recessionI pointed it out. The unemployment rate has risen from a historically low level, and historically similar situations tend to portend a recession. The market is concerned that the Fed will cut interest rates after the recession. Therefore,Investors may be trending to increase their holdings of large stocks。
What is the impact of interest rate cuts on the stock marketIn a wide rangeIt's over.The Fed cuts interest rates and growth remains positiveWhen doing so, corporate capital costs drop due to interest rate cuts, profitability increases, and market trust and expectations also increase, soThe stock market is likely to riseThere is. Historically, in the Fed's interest rate cut cycleUS stocks outperform European stocks and Japanese stocksMeanwhile, emerging market stocks benefit from the depreciation of the dollar and the inflow of funds. However, stocks will turn negative when the Fed fails to cut interest rates and the economy falls into recession.
Sources: FactSet, MINKABU, Bloomberg, Investing, Reuters
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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