Next week's financial results and economic calendar (8/12 to 8/16) US economy, time of trials! Is it a big turbulence with US CPI and retail sales?

Next week's points
Nervous developments in Japanese stocks are expected to continue next week due to exchange rate trends. The announcement of financial results for the fiscal year ending April-6 for both Japan and the US is generally in one round,There will be fewer individual materials. While the United States is refraining from announcing important economic indicators related to prices and consumption, if excessive pessimism about the US economy is corrected, it is likely that the reaction of stock price declines will prevail as the dollar exchange rate calms down. On the other hand, volatility is high, aggressive purchases are limited from the summer vacation season, and return sales are also easy.

Financial results announcements are almost over in Japan, and it is OK that there is a movement to re-evaluate the details. We are proceeding with the sale of policy holdingsThe focus is also on whether insurance companies will buy their own shares with sale fundsthat's it. Also, domestically, preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the April-6 fiscal year will be announced on the 15th. If domestic GDP results are strong,Financial stocksIt's not strange if purchases with expectations of interest rate hikes come out again, etc.

Market interest continued and surged next weekUS recession concernsand, along with thatWhereabouts of a sharp drop in stock pricesThey are gathered at There are many announcements of economic indicators in the US, and July 13thProducer Price Index (PPI), on the 14thConsumer Price Index (CPI), on the 15thretail salesetc. will be announced. As always, there is a high level of interest in CPI, but now”The focus is shifting from inflation to the strength and weakness of the real economy” becausePay attention to indicators other than inflation-related indicators such as retail salesIt's been done. Just because the stock market has become unstable even in the US due to concerns about a recession,Responses to indicators tend to increase. According to Bloomberg, the CPI core excluding food and energy is expected to rise 0.2% from the previous month (0.1% increase in the previous month), and retail sales are expected to increase 0.3% from the previous month (unchanged from the previous month). While the content of the rice price index seems to indicate a slowdown in inflation, if indicators such as retail sales and consumer sentiment confirm that recession concerns are excessive, there is a possibility that a certain sense of security will come out.

It seems that market sentiment will be influenced by the results of the US economic indicators that will be announced one after another for the dollar to yen exchange rate next week. Multiple economic indicators with high importance will be announced in the US. Economic concerns raised in the wake of employment statistics are further mitigated, and if the incorporation of excessive interest rate cuts recedes, it is easy for the appreciation of the dollar and the depreciation of the yen to progress. However, in the main opinion of the monetary policy meeting held from July 30 to 31 announced by the Bank of Japan on the 8th, there is a statement that “it is necessary to raise interest rates in a timely and gradual manner while confirming the reaction of the economy and prices,” and if the market regains calm, there is also a possibility that yen will be bought with renewed awareness of the Bank of Japan's additional interest rate hike. Furthermore, if Japan-US stock prices fall sharply again, it becomes easier for yen buybacks associated with holding compression to intensify. On the other hand, it should be noted that in situations where market volatility is high, investors' anxiety is strong, and price movements tend to increase as liquidity declines during the domestic Obon holiday etc.

This week's market points
1. The Nikkei Average continued to decline for 4 weeks, breaking the biggest increase and decrease in history
2. Turbulence in the US stock market, are the S&P 500 and NASDAQ entering an adjustment phase
3. Valuations of US super-large high-tech stocks have been normalized! Is it an opportunity to buy specials
4. Is there an opportunity to buy more Japanese trading company stocks? Pay attention to valuations after the crash
5. The number of new unemployment insurance claims has dropped drastically for the first time in about 1 year! Concerns about economic deceleration have abated, and stock prices have risen drastically
6. AI-related stocks, bright and dark in financial results! Palantia soars, supermicro crashes

The Nikkei Average fell for the fourth week in a row to 0.03 million5025 yen, 884.7 yen (2.46%) lower than the previous weekend. this week,Update both the biggest increase and decrease in historyI'm doing it. The 5th of the week recorded a depreciation of 4451 yen, the biggest drop in history surpassing Black Monday. Then, the day after the big crash, it completely reversed and recorded the biggest increase in history with a 3217 yen increase. After that, the state of panic calmed down once, but market prices continued to fluctuate.

Similarly, Mr. Buffett, a famous American investor, investsJapan's top 5 trading company stocksDue to the effects of the record Japanese stock crashValuations have also dropped a lot. Bloomberg said that since Mr. Buffett had previously suggested a further increase in the ownership ratio of Japanese trading company stocks, “for himWhen it's an opportunity to buy more” he pointed out.

This week's US economic indicatorsIt seems to have weakened concerns that the economic slowdown will spread over a wide area. Announced on the 8thThe number of new US unemployment insurance claims fell more than expectedThen,The biggest decline in nearly a yearNow that it has become,Concerns about the economic slowdown have abated. Since the number of people employed in the non-farm sector announced last week fell far short of expectations, the global market was baptized on “Black Monday,” and the US stock market also strengthened its adjustment color,The trend in the number of new US unemployment insurance claims this week attracted a lot of attention. Therefore, on the 8th,US stocks are significantly higherNext, investor sentiment improved,Yen sales have strengthened. In addition, the July ISM non-manufacturing business index announced on the 5th exceeded expectations,Improved from a low level for the first time in 4 years(June was the lowest level since 20/5). As the atmosphere of risk aversion spreads, it seems that it has led to a sense of security for now, as the atmosphere of risk aversion spreads, as it was also seen from some that it would fall below 50 again.