This week's financial results and economic calendar (8/19 to 8/23) will the Jackson Hole meeting hold the key to the market? Buffett's strategy, speculation about the “lipstick effect”
Are Japanese stocks moving forward and backward this week? While excessive concerns about the US economy recede, expectations for a soft landing will intensify if interest rate cut observations in September are maintained, and buying is likely to become dominant, but it has passed Japan-US corporate financial results and economic indicators that have been attracting attention, and while it lacks new materials, the market is once againUnfolding while looking at Japan-US monetary policiesThere is also a possibility that it will become Expectations are high that Chairman Powell will clearly state interest rate cuts in September,There is a possibility that solid ground will continue until the middle of the weekThere is also one. If there are no positive statements about the US interest rate cut in September, there is a risk that Japan will depreciate along with the depreciation of US stocks. Meanwhile, Daiwa Securities chief economist Toru Suehiro also expressed the view that “there is no particular reason for the yen to depreciate further” while the central banks of Japan and the United States adopt diametrically opposite monetary policies, so it is easy for the upper price to become heavy for the time being.
This WeekThe point of US stocks is at what level they will settle down after the US's observations of excessive interest rate cuts have been corrected.The annual Jackson Hole meeting will be held from 22nd to 24th, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's keynote speech is scheduled for the 23rd. In the market, the US interest rate cut in September is viewed as dominant by 0.25%, but the chairmanHow do you view the current market environment、What do you say about future monetary policyButThe biggest pointIt becomes. AnalystsWill Chairman Powell pave the way for September interest rate cutsIt is predicted, and it is attracting the most attentionThe actual range of interest rate cutsIt will be announced the following weekDepends on August employment statisticsI pointed it out. However, it should be noted that the US stock market is often during Chairman Powell's remarksShow major changesThat's it. For example, in '22, Chairman Powell's speech lowered the three major US indices of the day by 3% to 4% in just 9 minutes. The market was also turbulent in 2023. In addition, the summary of the US FOMC proceedings will be published.
Domestically, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is scheduled to attend the closing review of the House of Representatives Finance and Finance Committee on the 23rd, and remarks are attracting attention as financial and capital market turmoil is coming to an end, such as the appreciation of the dollar and depreciation of the yen progressing in the exchange market. Following Vice President Shinichi UchidaIf statements are made that take the market into consideration, it will support the market. Also, the July National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled to be announced on the same day. The market forecast for core CPI excluding fresh food rose 2.7% from the previous year, from 2.6% the previous monthGrowth is expected to expand. Meanwhile, domesticallyThe whereabouts of the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election is in the spotlightHowever, in the market, voices are heard that “there is a high possibility that candidates will not be decided until just before, and it is difficult to incorporate.” Reports surrounding candidates are expected to continue one after another from next week onwards, but the impact on the market price is likely to be limited.
This week's dollar-yen developments are likely to be a source of disappointment due to US economic indicators, statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and Bank of Japan President Kazuo Ueda, etc. Chairman Powell gave a lecture on the 23rdDollars are likely to be bought when it comes to content that pushes back the drastic interest rate cut observations in September. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is scheduled to attend the closing examination of both houses of the House of Representatives on the same day,Will it lead to the movement of the circleIt attracts attention. In addition, economic indicators such as the number of second-hand housing sales in the US will also be announced.The direction of yen carry trade seems to become even more clear over the next weekthat's it. In the market, it is around 150 yen, which is a psychological milestone where many technical points are ahead, and it is a half-price return from the 38-year high of 161 yen in July to the August lowAround 151 yen、What is the imminently high priceIt seems that there are many participants who position it as such. On the other hand, “since the latter half of the month after the CPI announcement lacks clues, it is easy for price movements of major currencies to slow down in general. If fluctuations become scarce, interest rate income in US dollars will be attractive,”There is a possibility that dollar buying/yen sales for carry transactions will progressVoices pointing it out were also heard.
1. The Nikkei Average recovered to the 0.03 million8,000 yen level, rebounded sharply for the first time in 5 weeks, and there are clear signs of bottoming out
2. Passed through a series of US economic indicators due to a slowdown in US PPI/CPI and strong retail sales, easing concerns about the recession
3. The US stock market gradually recovers from the crash at the beginning of this month
4. Huge capital inflow on Wall Street, and a flood of stock buybacks by US companies?
5. Are US high-tech stocks once again in explosive mode? Is it time to selectively re-enter AI-related stocks
6. Institutional investors' portfolios are open to the public! Buffett cuts Apple stock holdings in half and acquires new cosmetics retail stock
7.2 Major Top Institutions Are Buying Cosmetics Stocks One After Another! Is the US stock market a sign of the “lipstick (lipstick) effect”
The Nikkei Average rebounded sharply for the first time in 5 weeks to 0.03 million8062.67 yen, 3037.67 yen (8.67%) higher than the previous weekend, showing a clear bottom. What is the rice producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) for JulyResults that raise expectations of slowing inflationThen, retail sales for JulyRelieved vigilance against the economic downturn. Even domestically, real gross domestic product (GDP) surged from market expectations, and investors' risk appetite mood supported the market price.
The US stock market is at the beginning of this monthThe mood gradually recovered from the sharp dropI'm doing it. Specifically, US retail sales generally exceeded expectations, the growth rate recorded a high level for the first time in a year and a half, and the number of new unemployment insurance claims also declinedConcerns about a rapid economic slowdown have abated. What is the growth rate of US CPILow level for the first time in about 3 years and 5 monthsAs a result, the core index also showed a slowing trend, which is in line with market expectations. However, in some cases, there were expectations that the content would increase the possibility of a drastic interest rate cut of 0.50% points, so the pace of slowdown was slow in that respect,Unsatisfactory contentWell, that seems to have happened. The July Producer Price Index (PPI) slowed more than expected,Service prices fall for the first time this yearI did it. After these data were announced,Although expectations for interest rate cuts in September have been preserved, observations of drastic interest rate cuts have recededI did it.Expectations for a soft landing have once again become a realityWhat is the Dow averageRecover 40,000 dollarsThe Nikkei Average too0.03 million recovered to the 8000 yen levelI did it. The yen exchange rate has plummetedOne dollar = a sharp decline in the first half of the 149 yen rangeThen, market participants who had maintained a high level of “yen carry transactions” came back to life. As you can see, the popular one centered around the circle that was hit by a large-scale rewind 2 weeks agoThe carry trade is slowly recoveringit seems.
At the same time,Huge sums of money are flowing into US stocks from many sources。Trend-tracking quantitative funds are returning to the US stock marketAnd as the fiscal season comes to an end,A window for corporate stock buybacks will be openedit's for. According to Goldman Sachs, the total annual share buyback volume of companies in August and SeptemberApproximately 21%Following the historical pattern of accounting, the daily purchasing power over the next few weeks is expected to reach 4.75 billion dollars.
Global capital has already begun to return to high-tech stocks, particularly AI-related stocks, and above all $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$In 4 days17% surgeI did it. The adjustment for US stocks has been completed, and before NVIDIA's financial results are announced,The valuation of AI-related stocks has also returned to a relatively reasonable levelSo, tech bullies say”Most of the “AI bubble” has been resolved with this adjustment,The time has come to selectively re-enter AI-related stocks” I'm sure. In the market, high-tech companies that can make profits sustainablyEntering a new “updraft” surgeI'm expecting that. What are the financial results of Dell and NVIDIA that will be announced in the futureAn important litmus test for determining whether position adjustments are really overIt is said that it becomes.
Major Wall Street banks such as BofA and Citi recommend semiconductor stocks, and NVIDIA and $Micron Technology (MU.US)$、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$、 $ON Semiconductor (ON.US)$、 $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$etc.Selected as a “Top Pick for Hot Buyers”I did it. Meanwhile, even in the Tokyo Stock Exchange, it is a stock that is easily bought back by market participantsSales to China are low $Advantest (6857.JP)$、 $Lasertec (6920.JP)$In addition toHigh growth potential in the medium to long termthrough $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$$has been mentioned.
Also, last weekThe portfolios of the world's top institutional investors are open to the public. Berkshire, led by “God of Investment” Buffett, is in the second quarter $Apple (AAPL.US)$Holding stocksReduced from 0.789 billion shares to 0.4 billion sharesAt the same time, the largest cosmetics retailer in the US $Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US)$ and aerospace electronics companies' $Heico (HEI.US)$A new share of was acquired. Since the beginning of this year, Alta BeautyA 33% dropAlthough they are doing it, they were stimulated by Mr. Buffett's purchases, and the stock price was outside of 14 daysSurge by about 14%I did it. According to analysts, Alta Beauty'sVariations have fallen to a multi-year lowWhat is the gross profit margin39%Since it has reached,Strong pricing powerwithcost controlIt is said that it shows. Furthermore, Alta Beauty covers a wide range of demand from popular cosmetics to luxury brandsUnique market positioningI have it. What should be noted is that British capital management giant Bailey Gifford is also a major cosmetics company $e.l.f. Beauty (ELF.US)$It's a new acquisition of shares. Market participants said this about the fact that the two top institutions successively purchased cosmetics stocks in the 2nd quarterBetting on the “lipstick (lipstick) effect”deeming it,Their views on the future of the US stock marketIt is analyzed as showing.
The “lipstick (lipstick) effect” indicates a tendency for consumers to buy luxury products that are not very expensive, such as luxury brand lipsticks, when faced with a financial crisis.
Some analysts say that Buffett acquired shares of Alta Beauty in the current economic environment as the reasonFocus on the company's defensive characteristics during the economic downturnI see that there is a possibility that they did.
Sources: FactSet, MINKABU, Bloomberg, Investing, Reuters
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yoon_yun : >>1. The Nikkei Average recovered to the 0.03 million8,000 yen level, rebounded sharply for the first time in 5 weeks, and there are clear signs of bottoming out
Has the sense of caution at bottom 2 faded away?
Chibou : It is undeniable that AI chaos will occur from now on. Also, it goes without saying that the foundation for AI is not built outside of America. Japan also still has no foundation, and the Liberal Democratic Party will lose heavily in the upcoming general election. GAFA is starting to stumble. Right now, I want you to look at things that seem scarce, mainly food and semiconductors. I want you to keep an eye on Mr. Buffett's trends and the Fed's interest rate cuts
よろぴこ : The Nikkei Average has reached the milestone of 0.03 million8,000 yen, and if you see that Nikkei VI is still high, I feel that it will temporarily decline from next week due to hedging futures sales, so be wary.
Either way, stock prices will rise again in preparation for the September Major SQ.
It's important not to make a surprise sale in the short term.
181338057犬心久美子 : Stock price trends after interest rate cuts. are they going to do 0.25 bassist at a time by the end of the year? are you going for 0.5bs? I'm worried that if we go all at once, the market will get that bad
.
What kind of indices will all be corrected and revised downward on Wednesday.
It's a delicate steering across the election
Major speculators are selling tech company stocks, etc.
George Soros, who isn't good at it, is also cashing it out now,
Please don't manipulate the market