This week's earnings and economic calendar (8/19~8/23) - Will the Jackson Hole meeting hold the key for the market? Expectations for Buffett's strategy and the "Lipstick Effect."
This week, Japanese stocks are expected to move forward and backward. While excessive concerns about the U.S. economy have receded, expectations for a soft landing will strengthen if rate-cut speculation for September is maintained, leading to a buying spree. However, with the passing of the much-anticipated earnings reports and economic indicators for both Japan and the U.S., and a lack of new material, the market is once again...The market will unfold while keeping an eye on monetary policies in Japan and the U.S.There is also a possibility that the toro may determine the possibility of a rate cut in September, given the high expectations for Chair Powell to explicitly mention it.There is also the possibility of a firm market continuing until the middle of the week.If there are no positive comments on the September rate cut in the U.S., there is a risk that Japan's stocks will fall along with the U.S. stocks. On the other hand, Daiwa Securities' Chief Economist Tomohiro Suenaga also indicates the view that 'there is no particular reason for further depreciation of the yen, given the completely opposite monetary policies of the central banks of Japan and the United States, so it is likely to be difficult for the yen to weaken in the near future.'
This weekThe key point for U.S. stocks is where they will settle after the excessive speculation of a rate cut in the U.S. is corrected.The annual Jackson Hole meeting is scheduled to take place from the 22nd to the 24th, with Chair Powell's keynote speech scheduled for the 23rd. In the market, a 0.25% rate cut in the U.S. in September is viewed as the most likely scenario, but the chair isHow does the toro currently view the market environment?、What will be discussed regarding future financial policies?isThe biggest pointWill be. AnalystsChairman Powell is expected to pave the way for a rate cut in Septemberand the most attention is onthe actual rate cut amountwill be announced the following weekIt is influenced by the employment statistics for August.pointed out. However, it should be noted that the US stock market often experiences significant fluctuations during Fed Chair Powell's remarks.showing significant fluctuations.For example, in 2022, Fed Chair Powell's speech caused a 3% to 4% drop in the three main US indices in just 9 minutes. The market was also turbulent in 2023. In addition, the minutes of the US FOMC meeting are scheduled for release.
Domestically, BOJ Governor Kuroda is scheduled to attend the closing meeting of the Lower House Finance Committee on the 23rd, and his remarks in the midst of the confusion in the financial and capital markets, including the strengthening of the dollar and the weakening of the yen, are being closely watched. Following Vice Governor Uchida,supporting the market if statements are made to accommodate the market.In addition, the nationwide Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is scheduled to be released on the same day. Market expectations for core CPI, excluding fresh food, are expected to rise by 2.7% compared to the previous year, expanding from 2.6% in the previous month.is expected to see an expanded growth.Meanwhile, in Japan,The focus is on the outcome of the LDP leadership election,However, the market is hearing voices saying, "It is highly likely that the candidates will not be determined until just before the election, making it difficult to factor in." The coverage surrounding the candidates is expected to continue after next week, but the impact on the market is anticipated to be limited.
This week, the USD/JPY is expected to fluctuate in response to US economic indicators, speeches by Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve, and comments by Governor Kuroda of the Bank of Japan. On the 23rd, Chairman Powell is expected to make remarks at a speech, and if the content pushes back the speculation of a significant rate cut in September, the dollar is likely to be bought. Additionally, on the same day, Governor Kuroda of the Bank of Japan is scheduled to attend a closing session hearing of both the Lower and Upper Houses of the Diet, and this is expected to be closely watched for its impact on the movement of the yen. Other economic indicators, such as the existing home sales in the US and others, will also be released.In addition, on the same day, Governor Kuroda of the Bank of Japan is scheduled to attend a closing session hearing of both the Lower and Upper Houses of the Diet, which will also be closely watched for its impact on the movement of the yen. Additionally, other economic indicators, such as the existing home sales in the US, will also be released.on the other hand, US economic indicators like the existing home sales in the US will also be released.The direction of the yen carry trade is likely to become clearer in the next week.In the market, many technical points are approaching the psychological milestone of around 150 yen, which corresponds to the half retracement from the 38-year high of 161 yen in July to the low of August.It seems that many participants are positioning around 151 yen.、As for the immediate upside potential.On the other hand, it is noted that "Due to the lack of clues in the latter half of the month after the CPI announcement, the overall movements of major currencies tend to slow down. If volatility decreases, the interest income on the US dollar becomes attractive"There are also voices pointing out the potential for a rise in dollar buying/yen selling for carry trades.Other opinions also suggest the possibility of carry trades targeting dollar buying and yen selling.
1. The Nikkei average recovered in the 0.03 million 8000 yen range and rebounded significantly for the first time in 5 weeks, clearly indicating signs of a bottom.
2. The concerns of an economic downturn have eased as a series of US economic indicators, including the PPI, CPI, and strong retail sales.
3. The US stock market is gradually recovering from the sharp decline earlier this month.
4. Is there a flood of massive funds flowing into Wall Street, leading to a surge in share buybacks by US companies?
5. Are US high-tech stocks entering another phase of explosive growth? Is it time to selectively re-enter AI-related stocks?
6. A revealing look at institutional investors' portfolios! Warren Buffett halves his holdings of Apple stock and acquires shares in the cosmetics retail industry.
Top institutions with a total of 7.2 billion are buying cosmetic stocks one after another! Is it a precursor to the "lipstick effect" in the US stock market?
The Nikkei average rose sharply by 3037.67 yen (8.67%) compared to the previous week to 0.03 million 8062.67 yen, showing a clear bottom for the first time in 5 weeks. July's Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI)result in increased expectations of inflation deceleration.In July, retail salesrelieved concerns about an economic recession.In Japan, real gross domestic product (GDP) surpassed market expectations, supporting market sentiment with investor risk preference.
From the sharp decline in early this month, the US stock market gradually recovered its momentum.Gradually recovering the mood from the sharp decline.Specifically, US retail sales have generally exceeded expectations and the growth rate has reached the highest level in a year and a half. The number of new claims for unemployment insurance has also decreased.Concerns about rapid economic slowdown have eased.The growth rate of US CPI is at the lowest level in about three years and five months. The core index also shows a slowing trend, in line with market expectations. However, there were also expectations that it would increase the possibility of a significant 0.50% point interest rate cut, so the slowing pace was somewhat unsatisfactory.July Producer Price Index (PPI) decelerated more than expected.Service prices have declined for the first time this year.The content was somewhat unsatisfactory.Service prices have declined for the first time this year.Service prices have declined for the first time this year.After these data releases,Although expectations for a rate cut in September are maintained, the expectation for a significant rate cut has receded..The expectation of a soft landing has once again become realistic,the Dow has recovered 40,000 dollarsthe Nikkei average has also recovered to the 80,000 yen levelThe Dow has recovered 40,000 dollarsThe Nikkei average has also recovered to the 80,000 yen level.The yen exchange rate has plummeted, temporarily falling significantly to the lower 149-yen level.As a result, market participants who have maintained their positions in yen carry trades have begun to recover. This way, popular carry trades centered on the yen, which experienced a large-scale rollback two weeks ago, are gradually coming back.Carry trades, including popular carry trades centered on the yen, are gradually making a comeback.It seems so.
At the same time,A huge amount of funds is flowing into US stocks from various sources.。Quantitative funds that track trends are returning to the US stock market.As earnings season draws to a close,the window for companies to buy back their own shares is openingAccording to Goldman Sachs, if companies follow the historical pattern of accounting for approximately 21% of total annual share buybacks in August and September,the estimated purchasing power for a single day in the next few weeks will reach 4.75 billion dollars.Global funds have already begun to flow back into the technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks. According to estimates,
ulta beauty inc. is one of the stocks seeing an inflow of funds in the past four days. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$in the past four days.It rose 17%.After a pause in the adjustment of US stocks, ahead of NVIDIA's earnings announcement,The valuation of AI-related stocks has also returned to relatively reasonable levels.High-tech bulls believe thatBy this adjustment, a large part of the 'AI bubble' has been resolved,The time has come to re-enter selectively into AI-related stocks.In the market, high-tech companies that can sustainably generate profits,Semi-conductor bulls expect to enter a new 'upward trend' while selecting.I am expecting them. The earnings announcements of Dell and Nvidia, which will be announced in the future, will be an important litmus test to determine if the position adjustment has really ended.And that's it.
Wall Street giants such as BofA and Citigroup recommend semiconductor stocks, Nvidia, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$、 $ON Semiconductor (ON.US)$、 $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$etc.Selected as the top pick for buying on dips.On the other hand, in the Tokyo stock market, it is considered as a stock that is easy to buy back by market participants.Analysts in Japan have pointed out the potential of LaserTech as nearly unaffected by regulations to become a short-term safe haven due to the low revenue from China. $Advantest (6857.JP)$、 $Lasertec (6920.JP)$In addition,High growth potential in the medium to long term.to $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$$Has come up.
Also, last week,The portfolios of the world's top institutions are being revealedLed by the "God of investment" Mr. Buffett, Berkshire in the second quarter, $Apple (AAPL.US)$Reduced its shareholding of stocksFrom 0.789 billion shares to 0.4 billion sharesAt the same time, the largest retailer of cosmetics in the United States, $Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US)$ and the aerospace electronics company $Heico (HEI.US)$Acquired new shares of Ulta Beauty Inc. Since the beginning of this yearhas fallen by 33%,but stimulated by Buffett's purchase, the stock price surged by about 14% after hours on the 14th.According to analysts, Ulta Beauty Inc.'svariations have fallen to the lowest level in several years,and the gross profit marginhas39%From the fact that it has reachedstrong pricing powerandcost managementit covers a wide range of demand from mass-market cosmetics to luxury brandsits unique market positioningBaillie Gifford, a major British asset management company, also acquired shares of the cosmetic giant $e.l.f. Beauty (ELF.US)$about the fact that two top institutions purchased cosmetic stocks one after another in the second quarter, market participantsA bet on the "Lipstick Effect"andtheir views on the future of the US stock marketare expressed, according to analysis
The "Lipstick Effect" refers to the tendency of consumers to purchase less expensive luxury items, such as high-end brand lipsticks, when facing a financial crisis.
Some analysts see Warren Buffett's acquisition of Alta Beauty Inc. shares in the current economic environment asbecause they believe that he may have valued the company's defensive characteristics during periods of economic downturn.is seen as a possibility.
出所：FactSet、MINKABU、Bloomberg、investing、ロイター
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yoon_yun : >>1. The Nikkei Average recovered to the 0.03 million8,000 yen level, rebounded sharply for the first time in 5 weeks, and there are clear signs of bottoming out
Has the sense of caution at bottom 2 faded away?
Chibou : It is undeniable that AI chaos will occur from now on. Also, it goes without saying that the foundation for AI is not built outside of America. Japan also still has no foundation, and the Liberal Democratic Party will lose heavily in the upcoming general election. GAFA is starting to stumble. Right now, I want you to look at things that seem scarce, mainly food and semiconductors. I want you to keep an eye on Mr. Buffett's trends and the Fed's interest rate cuts
よろぴこ : The Nikkei Average has reached the milestone of 0.03 million8,000 yen, and if you see that Nikkei VI is still high, I feel that it will temporarily decline from next week due to hedging futures sales, so be wary.
Either way, stock prices will rise again in preparation for the September Major SQ.
It's important not to make a surprise sale in the short term.
181338057犬心久美子 : Stock price trends after interest rate cuts. are they going to do 0.25 bassist at a time by the end of the year? are you going for 0.5bs? I'm worried that if we go all at once, the market will get that bad
.
What kind of indices will all be corrected and revised downward on Wednesday.
It's a delicate steering across the election
Major speculators are selling tech company stocks, etc.
George Soros, who isn't good at it, is also cashing it out now,
Please don't manipulate the market