This week's financial results and economic calendar (8/26 to 8/30) The strongest “interest rate cut signal” so far + NVIDIA financial results, is the market boiling again?
Japanese stocks are expected to be turbulent this week. In response to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech on 8/23,An upward trend that is conscious of 0.04 million yenmay be expected, but the impact on US stocks as a whole is significant $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$There is also a possibility that the market price will fluctuate greatly up and down due to the announcement of financial results. If the results are disappointing, severe developments are expected for semiconductor stocks. However, in that case,There is a large probability that funds will go to other stocks by avoiding semiconductor stocks. If the settlement response is good,Developments where risk appetite is strengthened globallycan be expected. Also, after passing the event, it is expected that price movements will continue while being aware of exchange rate trends in preparation for the PCE deflator announcement (30th), which the US Federal Reserve emphasizes.
The US market has passed the Jackson Hole Conference, and while the long-awaited dovish policy change is imminent, preparations are being made for the first rate cut in this cycle at the US FOMC on 9/17-18. However, the Fed still relies heavily on data, and since the latest dot plot will also be announced at the September meeting,The course of interest rate cuts is still uncertainThat's it.Until the US employment statistics scheduled for the 1st week of September, there is a possibility that the stock price trajectory will be affected by movements in each economic indicatorIt's expensive.
What is getting the most attention in the market this weekNVIDIA's financial results announcement, which could be a turning point in the market price (8/28)that's it. According to market forecasts, sales were 28.639 billion dollars, up 112.03% from the previous year, and EPS was 0.60 dollars, up 141.49%. The company's earnings have been growing strongly for 3 consecutive quarters, and big tech companies (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta), which are major customersIt emphasizes investment in AIThis is supporting NVIDIA's growth. In the case of a company stockThe focus is on “how much we can exceed market expectations”However, if there are good financial results that exceed expectations,Highest value updateYou can also expect it. In that case, there is a possibility that the review mood for generative AI-related stocks sold by both Japan and the US will rapidly increase.
This week's dollar to yen passed an event called the Japan-US Central Bank Governor's Speech OpportunityInterest is turning to Japan-US economic indicators and US interest rate trendsIt looks like it's going to happen. In the US, the revised US real gross domestic product (GDP) value for the April-6 fiscal year announced on the 29th and the one announced on the 30thUS Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for Julyis attracting attention. The market forecast for the PCE core price index rose 0.2% from the previous month. The growth rate is expected to be the same as in June. Domestically, the July complete unemployment rate, effective job offer ratio, and the Tokyo Metropolitan Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be announced on the 30th, are attracting attention. Meanwhile, there is also a view that “the direction of monetary policy between Japan and the United States has become clear,” with Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo showing an attitude that monetary normalization will continue if sustainable and stable implementation of price targets is foreseen in the closing examination of both houses of the House of Representatives, so “it is easy to be aware of the weight of the appreciation of the dollar.”
1. The Nikkei Average continued to rise for 2 weeks, making it difficult to grasp a sense of direction
2. Chairman Powell sends out the strongest “interest rate cut signal” so far! The three major rice indices soared
3. Will the number of non-farm payrolls determine the future direction of the market?
4. Stocks with the benefits of lower US interest rates and defensive characteristics, a new brilliance! Related stocks hit new highs one after another
5. Are US stocks a sign of new changes? Mr. Buffett's Berkshire and Eli Lilly hit record highs, one step closer to the 1 trillion dollar club
6. Did Mr. Pelosi, the “god of investment on Capitol Hill,” win again? Significant profit with the PANW option
7. Challenge to AI supremacy! US AMD acquires next-generation system design capabilities through major acquisitions
The Nikkei Average rose for 2 consecutive weeks to 0.03 million8364.27 yen, 301.60 yen (0.79%) higher than the previous weekend. Last week, the biggest focus was Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference. Chairman Powell's lecture this timeThe content seemed to put an end to the Federal Reserve's historic measures against inflation. The chairmanThe time has come for policy adjustmentsI made it clear,We are not calling for a further slowdown in the labor marketI said that. Analysts say this statement so farStrongest interest rate cut signalIt confirmed the market forecast that the Fed would start cutting interest rates next month. The chairman alsoThe upside risk of inflation is decreasing, but the downside risk of employment is increasingI pointed it out. After speaking, by the end of the year in the swap marketInterest rate cut of about 100 bpIt was anticipated, and the three major US indices all rose on Friday, and the Dow average showed an increase of 460 points or more.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analystsThe number of people employed in the non-farm sector determines the future direction of the marketI said so. Also, there is a possibility that the Fed's drastic interest rate cut will be disadvantageous to the stock market, and there is no problem with the 25 bp interest rate cut,A 50 bp rate cut is an extremely bad signalI pointed it out when it became. In response, Claudia Sahm, the “Sam Rule” submitter, was announced on the 21stThe number of people employed in the US non-farm sector was revised downward with a decrease of 0.818 million people (the range of revisions is the largest in the past 15 years)Is the FRB50 bps interest rate cut in SeptemberIt was stated that it was the reason, and added that “cutting interest rates by 50 bps is not necessarily a mistake; it is a policy readjustment.”
In addition, the summary of the proceedings of the meeting held by the Fed on July 30 and 31 was disclosed, and the majority of members affirmed the September interest rate cut, and the content was dovish. However, the September interest rate cut has already been fully factored in,Market interest has moved to the pace of interest rate cuts thereafterit seems.
Thus, while the reduction in US interest rates in September is almost certain, investors in the US stock marketAlong with benefiting from lower interest rates、They are starting to pay attention to cheaper defensive stocks. In particular, over the past month,It showed performance that surpassed the information technology sectorPublic welfare、Real estate、daily necessities、healthcareSectors such as are attracting attention. These sectors are likely to benefit from interest rate cuts, and are also accompanied by performance surprises,There is a possibility that reviews and purchases will continue。
Furthermore,Many stocks hit their highs last weekI'm doing it. Led by Mr. Buffett, the “god of investment” $Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$with $Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$also hit an all-time high this week, respectively27% since the beginning of the year、A sharp increase of 64%、The market capitalization is one step away from 1 trillion dollarsIt's getting closer. Of real estate stocks $Iron Mountain (IRM.US)$、 $D.R. Horton (DHI.US)$、 $Simon Property (SPG.US)$etc. also hit a high last week, and many real estate stocks have risen 20% or more since the beginning of the year,It surpasses the S&P 500。
Meanwhile, it has the benefits and defensive characteristics of lower US interest ratesUS stock market bond ETFare also attracting attention, and BlackRock and State Street bond ETFsRecord a high inflow of fundsDoing it.
Regarding the US financial results announcement last week, the second largest general discount store $Target (TGT.US)$Is $Walmart (WMT.US)$Following, good financial results were announced and inflation continuesAlleviated investors' concerns about private consumption. Other cybersecurity companies $Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$Financial results were also announced, and in addition to exceeding expectations in terms of both performance and guidance, an additional 0.5 billion dollar share repurchase was also approved, which was well received and drastically increased. According to information disclosure documents,“Capitol Hill's God of Investment” Mr. PelosiPalo Alto Networks purchased a call option worth 1 million dollars from 0.5 million dollars on 2/12. On 2/21, additional call options equivalent to 0.25 million dollars were purchased from 0.1 million dollars (the latter purchase was aimed at a time when stock prices plummeted due to downward revisions to the company's annual sales and profit forecasts). Currently,This investment is already more than 60% profitableIt is scheduled to expire on 2025/1/25.
In addition, in order to challenge NVIDIA's AI hegemony, which is scheduled to announce financial results this week, major US semiconductor companies $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$announced plans to acquire ZT Systems, which designs and manufactures data center servers. We aim to strengthen competitiveness in the AI system market by selling ZT's manufacturing division and leaving the design business behind. It is a customer due to the sale of the manufacturing division $Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$Ya $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$Competition issues are avoided, and the impact on profit and loss due to the hardware business with low profit margins can also be avoided. In fact,Super Micro's gross profit margin reached a record lowThen, Dell's AI server division'sOperating profit margins also declined drasticallyI'm doing it. As a result of this acquisition, AMDEnhancing design capabilities not only for AI chips but for the entire system. Shares rose 4.5% after the announcement.
Sources: FactSet, MINKABU, Bloomberg, Investing, Reuters
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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てん ピノ : When financial results were announced in February, I first bought 0.3 million yen of shares of NVDA, which is an American stock, at a Japanese securities company that has used until now. Since the financial results for February were very good, stock prices also rose quite a bit.
As for the Moomoo securities company, I was able to get more information with my smartphone than the securities company I use, and the fact that I bought NVDA shares was also due to Moomoo Securities information.
Since stock prices rose quite a bit after settlement and the target stock prices of each securities company were high, 6 million yen was deposited into Moomoo Securities between 2 and 3 weeks from the time financial results were announced 5 months ago, resulting in an uncovered profit of 1.6 million yen.
The dollar at this time was 160 yen.
After that, there was also a decline in stock prices, and if we didn't want it to go negative, we secured a profit of 0.2 million yen and sold the stock once.
The dollar at this time is 150 yen.
Since actual stock prices rose, unrealized profit decreased by 1.4 million yen, and assets decreased by 1.4 million yen, but the decrease in profit and loss was about 0.8 million yen, and 0.6 million yen was exchange loss.
Also, since NVDA's stock price has risen and 2Q financial results will be announced next week, I bought shares of about 2.2 million yen.
Stock prices are rising steadily, but the exchange rate is falling due to the Bank of Japan's sudden interest rate hike.
I think it will probably be around 120 yen in 6 months to 1 year.
If stock prices do not rise by about 20% this year, there will be no cash left on hand.
I don't think the dollar will ever exceed 160 yen.
This is a truly empty complaint post, but I think US stocks involving AI and semiconductors will rise.
From January to April, I was able to make a lot of profit at a Japanese semiconductor company.
My way of buying stocks is how I want to invest in stocks that will go up the most.
Currently, about 80% of the funds are invested in the SoftBank Group.
The stocks I really want to buy are related to American AI.
However, when I think of it as being 120 yen per dollar when it goes up, I'm hesitant to make an additional purchase this time.
にくQ てん ピノ : I felt afraid of exchange![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
HONDA N-ONE : The typhoon is coming on Wednesday and isn't it going to be rough?!
おねご : $Iron Mountain (IRM.US)$
I'm expecting it to be handled!
I was able to find a very good stock when I looked at the chart! I thought, but I can't buy it at moomoo
大負けネコ : I have a “career with over 20 years of investment experience.”
️” and “I asked the person in charge of a financial institution, and since the assets are too biased towards US stocks,” I searched for 4 “investment trust stocks that diversify risk” and “diversify assets” into “gold investment trusts and European stock trusts,” but it was already too late.
️
However, at first, there was an image that “stocks are scary,” and since the exchange rate was “on an upward trend in yen,” we started with “monthly distribution type investment trusts.”
A few years later, “mutual fund” assets were cut in half due to the “2008 Lehman shock.”
Even if I wanted to “cut my losses,” I “recovered my assets” to some extent while I was left without taking a day off in a “black busy workplace.”
The lessons learned were “don't leave asset management to others” and “keep the purchased stocks within the risk range that can be taken by yourself through preliminary research and growth potential analysis.”
The exchange rate during “overseas travel” about 14 years ago was “1 dollar @90円以下,” which is “the yen was strong.”
We switched to “Japanese stock investment” about 10 years ago, learned about “value stock investment,” and “carefully” increased stocks, mainly small stocks.
There was also a “loss cut,” but it is also a “dream tenbagger stock,” and most of the initial purchased stocks are “positive until now.” Thanks to “preferential stocks have strong lower prices.”
When I traveled to Kyoto, Himeji, etc. in April last year, the exchange rate was “about 1 dollar @138円程度,” and before I knew it, it “fell to a depreciation trend.”
“American?” at a soba restaurant in Kyoto I was asked, “I don't have cash, but it's not cashless compatible, so I want you to exchange the 100 dollar bill for Japanese yen,” and it was exchanged for 10,000 yen. I was aware of the “change in the appreciation of the dollar to the depreciation of the yen.”
The exchange rate at the start of the consolidated investment in “mutual funds of US growth shareholders” in June last year was “1 dollar @145円前後.”
The investment amount was doubled with “value stocks” in Japan due to “insufficient knowledge to begin investing in individual US stocks.” That's because there are no “exchange losses” in Japanese stocks.
Furthermore, from November last year, they challenged US stocks in preparation for a “new NISA investment.” The first thing I bought was “high dividend stocks = value stocks.”
From there, “half of the assets are US stocks,” and I tried experimenting with “Japanese stocks = high dividend stocks, American stocks = value stocks and high dividend ETFs, mutual funds = Orkan, 8 asset diversification, and next FANG+ every day 200 yen = trial of the dollar cost averaging method.”
Surprised by the “high level of volatility” in US stocks, I decided to invest “GAFAM+N” by referring to the US stock text.
The “NISA growth investment quota” was used up by February this year, and initially US stocks were raised with dollar deposits at low cost within the basic “1 dollar @148円 to 150 yen,” about “1/6 of the NISA growth quota,” but when I noticed it, the $6,000 US stock increased.
N added 1 share before the February Q1 financial results announcement, and 1 additional share before the May Q2 financial results announcement.
Also, when I bought “mutual funds” in July this year, I felt “there is some incongruity” with “1 dollar @165円程度” and “yen falling 10% within six months
Starting with the “appreciation of the yen” on 7/12, we reached “Black Monday” on 8/5. The blow was painful, wasn't it? roughly △400-6 million?
Fortunately, it's “not in full position,” so I did my best to “put out the fire and buy” to intercept it.
We anticipate that the exchange rate will “move towards a strong yen trend” due to “American interest rate cuts ⇒ Japanese interest rate hikes” in the future.
I don't know next year, but will it be around “1 dollar @135円 to 145 yen range” by the end of the year?
As you said, I think it's “1 dollar @160円台に戻る可能性は低い,” so playing with “highly volatile stocks” isn't an option for me.
Since there is no “NISA investment quota”, “Tsumitate investment quota” and Japanese stocks.
Then, using the “appreciation of the yen plus the high interest rate in the US,” we make a “dollar reserve deposit of 1,000 yen” every week and every day.
For amounts exceeding the “NISA investment quota”, “10% US income tax +20.315% Japanese income tax” will be levied on profits and dividends from US stocks, right?
Then, buy “dollar foreign currency for future US stock funds” with “US dollar foreign currency reserve deposits” rather than “highly volatile US stocks” using the dollar cost averaging method.
Maybe it's the best way to realistically deal with “exchange rate fluctuation risks” that cannot be controlled? That's it.
Investments in Japanese stocks “growth stocks” are continuing. Isn't it a “bargain sale” when compared to the stock price a year ago?
I want to think “invest within my own risk tolerance” = the difference and growth between who I am now and 20 years ago.
Let's build up a good “investment experience” with each other
181338057犬心久美子 : Everyone is amazing with such a curious mind. I respect that. After all, there will be a shift from inflation to employment statistics and unemployment rate.