Next week's financial results and economic calendar (8/5 to 8/9) Dark clouds over the US economy, a test for high-tech stocks! Determine the trend of the US economy and the direction of the appreciation of the yen

Next week's points
There is likely to be nervous price movements for Japanese stocks next week. In addition to concerns about the US economy, if the yen continues to appreciate, it is likely to weigh on investor sentiment. At the market, “We have passed the central bank meeting, and major US financial results have gone through a round. While there are few events,A week with high volatility while watching exchange rate trendsA voice is heard saying, “It looks like it's going to be.” Meanwhile, the Nikkei Average has fallen by more than 10% from its highest value, and people are becoming aware of the sense of undervaluation. For investors who were late in buying due to the rising market since the beginning of the yearA perfect pushThere are also voices saying, and there are expectations for money inflows from medium- to long-term investors.

Regarding economic indicators, domestically, the Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates on the 8th“Key Opinions” at the July Monetary Policy MeetingIt will be announced. If the hawkish reception of the market is revised according to the main opinion, there is a possibility that the market price will be boosted. In the US, the July ISM non-manufacturing business climate index was announced on the 5th, and the number of new unemployment insurance claims was announced on the 8th,Check the current state of the economyIt's going to be done. The ISM non-manufacturing market forecast is expected to recover from 51.3 and 48.8 in June to 50, which is the standard value for a good recession. While there are concerns about the future of the US economy, if the ISM non-manufacturing industry exceeds expectations, concerns about economic deceleration will ease, leading to a halt in stock price declines. On the other hand, if it falls below, it will lead to a deterioration in sentiment.

Next week's dollar to yen is likely to be a development that explores where the appreciation of the yen and the depreciation of the dollar, which are progressing rapidly at the moment, will calm down. There is an aspect where speculation about reducing interest rate differences is encouraging yen appreciation due to differences in the direction of Japan-US monetary policy, such as the Bank of Japan's additional interest rate hike by the end of the year and the US Federal Reserve's September interest rate cut, and they want to determine the Bank of Japan's stance through the main opinions of the Bank of Japan meeting. Furthermore, if global stock depreciation continues against the backdrop of a sharp deceleration in the US economy and concerns about the situation in the Middle East, etc., investor sentiment will deteriorate further, and it will be easier for risk-averse yen purchases to continue. On the other hand, there is also a possibility that yen will be sold back if the financial market as a whole calms down after the appreciation of the yen progresses rapidly.

This week's market points
1. The Nikkei Average continues to drop drastically, and the 4-digit decline continues for 3 weeks! The dollar and yen fell to the 147 yen level
2. We have reached a turning point in the US stock market with a view to lowering US interest rates! Sector rotation is underway
3. US employment statistics sound the alarm for a recession! The atmosphere that envelops the entire market begins to change
4. NVIDIA's “roller coaster” market, “Capitol Hill's God of Investment,” is once again a hand from God
5. Many US high-tech stocks plummeted due to financial results announcements! Doubts about AI investments spread

The Nikkei Average fell sharply for 3 consecutive weeks to 0.03 million5909.70 yen, 1757.71 yen (4.67%) lower than the previous weekend, and quickly returned to the level of January this year. In particular, it showed a drop of about 3200 yen in the 2 days since the beginning of August.Concerns about the Bank of Japan's hawkish shift, due to it“Yen appreciates acceleration”withWorsening anxiety about the US economyAgainst the background, the Nikkei AverageSecond major drop in historyIt was recorded on the 2nd. The Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates at this meeting, and Governor Ueda showed a hawkish attitude, such as suggesting additional interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the possibility of a September interest rate hike has increased due to uncertainty about the future of the US economy.

Many economic indicators this week show uncertainty about the future of the US economy。What is the most notable July US employment statisticsU.S. Non-farm payrolls (smallest increase since April)YaUnemployment rate (highest since October 2021)、Average hourly wageBoth areResults weaker than market expectationsIt became. The ADP employment statistics increased by 0.122 million people, and growth was the lowest since January. The number of JOLT job offers in June declined from May. The ISM manufacturing business index for Julydownturn, down from 46.8 and 48.5 in June,It fell below 50, which is the dividing point of the good recession, for 4 consecutive months. Employment in the July ISM Manufacturing Business Index was 43.4, continuing in June50 divided for 2 months in a rowand activities were curtailed. The number of new unemployment insurance claims per weekExceed expectations、Deteriorated to a high level for the first time in about 1 year since August last yearDoing it. In response to the deterioration of these economic indicators, investors who had been optimistic about a soft landing in the US economy until now have begun to be wary of a recession. Long-term US interest rates also fell sharply and fell below the 4% range for the first time in about six months. The movement of dollar sales and yen purchases is progressing against the backdrop of falling US interest rates.