This week's earnings and economic calendar (9/9~9/13): What are the twists and turns in the US economy and the future of the interest rate cut?
This week in the Japanese stock market, The trend of US stocksandwill continue to be watched.It is expected that the development will be based on the 11th's announcement ofthe August consumer price index (CPI).If the continuation of inflation moderation can be confirmed, it is likely to lead to a certain sense of buying reassurance. The core index, excluding food and energy, is expected to increase by 0.2% month-on-month, the same growth rate as the previous month. On the other hand, on the 13th, special clearing value (Major SQ) calculation for stock index futures and options for the September contract will make the stock supply and demand more volatile. There may also be significant fluctuations in the stock index as the trading of physical stocks related to derivative transactions increases.On the other hand, the dollar-yen rate has become more yen-dominated than the assumed rate for this year's export companies, so expectations for upward revisions in corporate performance are diminishing. In the midst of the inability to dispel concerns that the U.S. economy is weakening, it is necessary to assess the negative impact of the strong yen on business performance.There will be a special clearing value (Major SQ) calculation for stock index futures and options for the September contract, which is likely to cause significant volatility in stock supply and demand. With an increase in the trading of physical stocks related to derivative transactions, there may be significant fluctuations in the stock index.As trading of physical stocks related to derivative transactions increases, there may be significant fluctuations in the stock index..
If the continuation of inflation moderation can be confirmed, it is likely to lead to a certain sense of buying reassurance. The core index, excluding food and energy, is expected to increase by 0.2% month-on-month, the same growth rate as the previous month. On the other hand, on the 13th, special clearing value (Major SQ) calculation for stock index futures and options for the September contract will make the stock supply and demand more volatile. There may also be significant fluctuations in the stock index as the trading of physical stocks related to derivative transactions increases.It is necessary to assess the negative impact of the strong yen on business performance as the strong yen could have a detrimental effect on performance.There is.
In the United States, on the 11th, The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, and on the 12th, the Producer Price Index (PPI) are scheduled to be announced. If these indicators fall below market expectations, it is highly possible that long-term interest rates in the United States will decline and the exchange rate will shift to a stronger yen (weaker dollar). Currently, market attention is shifting from subdued inflation to a softening labor market. However, depending on the results of the CPI and other indicators, the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) may be forced to be cautious of the risk of economic slowdown, leading to significant interest rate cuts continuing after September. With market attention focused on the direction of the US economy, the stock market is increasingly reacting negatively to weak economic indicators, and the previous rule of "bad news is good news" is beginning to crumble.
On the other hand, there is also interest in the first debate between former President Trump, the Republican candidate for the presidential election, and Vice President Harris, the Democratic candidate. The outcome of this debate is likely to have a significant impact on the US presidential election. The debate will be live-streamed by ABC News on the 11th at 10:00 am Japan time. Neither candidate has revealed specific policy details yet, so the key will be whether policy announcements that can affect the market will be made.Debateis scheduled to be held.
Another thing to watch out for this week is $Apple (AAPL.US)$Apple will hold a special event 'It's Glowtime. Time is coming.' at 10:00 a.m. on September 9th (2:00 a.m. on September 10th in Japan) and is scheduled to announce the iPhone 16 series. Investors are not only expecting new products from Apple, but also new models of AirPods and Apple Watch.Investors are also paying attention to the impact of the new products on Apple's stock and 'Apple Supplier' related stocks, as well as whether there are any investment opportunities.In the market, the focus of this announcement is on 'Apple Intelligence'. It is expected that this artificial intelligence tool will be integrated into all new iPhone models. According to analysts at Citigroup,Investors are also paying attention to whether there are any investment opportunities..
This week's USD/JPY is will be influenced by expectations of a US interest rate cut.It is likely to be decided. The focus is on determining the pace of interest rate cuts by the end of the year through the consumer price index (CPI) and other statistics announced on the 11th.On the other hand, there is a possibility of a significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points (bp) leading up to the FOMC meeting scheduled for the 17th and 18th, which could lead to selling of the dollar and buying pressure on the yen. In addition, there is persistent speculation about the Bank of Japan's additional interest rate hikes, which could be a burden. On the 11th, Junko Nakagawa, a member of the Financial and Economic Forum of Akita Prefecture, and on the 12th, Naoki Tamura, a member of the Financial and Economic Forum of Okayama Prefecture, will attend, and depending on their remarks, there is a possibility that the yen will further appreciate.It is projected that others will attend the Financial and Economic Forum of Akita Prefecture on the 11th and the Financial and Economic Forum of Okayama Prefecture on the 12th. Depending on their statements, there is also a possibility of a further appreciation of the yen.Member Junko NakagawaWill attend the Financial and Economic Forum of Okayama Prefecture on the 12th.Member Naoki TamuraDepending on their remarks, there is also a possibility of a further appreciation of the yen.
1. The Nikkei average fell sharply for the first time in four weeks! The stormy start of September.
2. Concerns loom over US economic indicators! Recession alertness increases, and the yen temporarily reaches the 142 yen range.
3. Headwinds shaking the future of AI-related stocks. Broadcom and C3.ai experience a sharp drop in earnings.
4. Nvidia plunges 10%! A challenge for the AI emperor. Is it a major adjustment or a temporary adjustment?
5. Tesla, a series of positive factors are coming! Can it replicate the rapid rise in July?
6. US employment numbers fall below expectations, with downward revisions for the previous month as well. The extent of the Fed's interest rate cut in September is still unknown.
The Nikkei average fell sharply by 2,256.28 yen (5.84%) to 6,391.47 yen compared to the previous week, marking a significant decline in four weeks. In September, due to the exchange ratethe trend of a weak dollar and strong yen.In addition,Concerns about the recession in the US economy.andSemiconductor market conditions.Japan's stock market is showing signs of volatility again, especiallyConcerns about the future of the US economy.andDecline in semiconductor-related stocks.Had a significant impact. On a weekly basis, $Disco (6146.JP)$isdown 18%, $Lasertec (6920.JP)$isdown 17%, $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$isDown 14%, $Advantest (6857.JP)$isDown 11%The deviation from the closing price of 2,371 yen on the 9th is about The main stocks are showing double-digit declines across the board. The Nikkei average recorded a 5% or more decline in the past 3 trading days, unlike the sharp decline in August, the trading volume decreased, and the unwinding of outstanding credit purchases was completed. Although experts point out the market's instability, it has not led to a massive crash like in August. Not to the extent of a large-scale crash like in August.According to Dow Inc, JP Morgan mentioned that
In the US market, last week the three major US indexes all fell significantly. This decline was due to the announcement last week ofA series of US economic indicators suggest an increase in the risk of economic recession.The August ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), announced on the 3rdfell below expectations, showing improvement from the lowest point of the year in July, but fell below expectations, dropping below 50 for the 5th consecutive month.This has led to a widespread sense of caution about the slowing US economy, and on the 3rd, the three main US indices experienced a sharp decline, with the daily decline attributable to recession concerns and unwinding of the yen carry trade.5カ月連続で50を割り込んだ。これにより、米景気鈍化への警戒感が広がり、米主要3指数は3日、大幅反落し、1日の下落率はリセッション懸念や円キャリートレードの巻き戻しで急落したThe size since August 5thAssuming the same ratio of acquisition cost to profit from sale as the first quarter (sale profit is 1.625 times acquisition cost), the sale in fiscal year 2024 has alreadyJob openings in JulySignificantly below expectations,The low level since January 2021FallingADP Employment ReportisThe financial estimates fell significantly below market expectations.(The weakest growth since January 2021) has further heightened concerns about the slowdown in the labor market and strengthened expectations for an expanded pace of interest rate cuts.As a result, the U.S. dollar was sold off in the foreign exchange market, causing the dollar/yen to rise to the 142 yen level.According to the August U.S. employment statistics released on the 6th, the number of non-farm payroll employees increased by 0.142 million compared to the previous month, falling below expectations. The growth in employment in June and July was also revised downward. However, the unemployment rate reached its lowest level since June of this year.Despite the decline in the unemployment rate, employment in the United States remained weak in August.As a result, the yen strengthened, with the dollar/yen rate reaching the 142 yen level.
According to the August U.S. employment statistics released on the 6th, the number of non-farm payroll employees increased by 0.142 million compared to the previous month, falling below expectations. The growth in employment in June and July was also revised downward. However, the unemployment rate reached its lowest level since June of this year.Despite the decline in the unemployment rate, employment in the United States remained weak in August.,The slowdown in the US labor market has become apparent.In response to the data, traders see a possibility of the Federal Reserve performing a 50 basis point rate cut this month.50%and it is expected.
In this context, Charles L. Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, stated that there is a high possibility of the Federal Reserve implementing multiple rate cuts over the next 12 months, due to the decline in inflation and the rise in unemployment.On the other hand, United States Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, expressed that......米国の雇用市場が依然として健全であり、個人消費と投資支出も非常に堅調であると評価。失業率が歴史的に低水準にあり、健全な労働市場が続いているとの見解を示した。ウィリアムズＮＹ連銀総裁は「失業率は上昇も、なお低水準だ。利下げプロセスを開始する用意がある」と述べた。
Last week announced. AI関連株の業績も大きな注目を集めている。まず、最も注目された半導体大手の $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$はAI以外の事業の不振で、第4四半期の売上高見通しが市場予想を下回り、5日の時間外取引でDropped by about 7%.Sales of AI-related products are strong, but other businesses are slowing down. CEO Hock Tan said that the non-AI business has hit bottom and is expected to recover in the fourth quarter, but investor concerns still remain.At the same time, the software company also released its earnings report this week, with Q1 subscription revenue falling below expectations, causing the stock price to drop by over 8% on the 5th day. Higher interest rates and an unstable business environment are affecting new software investments, and the annual revenue guidance also fell below market estimates. BofA and Morgan Stanley lowered their target stock prices.Similarly, the software company also released its earnings report this week, with Q1 subscription revenue falling below expectations, causing the stock price to drop by over 8% on the 5th day. Higher interest rates and an unstable business environment are affecting new software investments, and the annual revenue guidance also fell below market estimates. BofA and Morgan Stanley lowered their target stock prices. $C3.ai (AI.US)$Likewise, last week also announced its earnings report, but Q1 subscription revenue fell below expectations, causing the stock price to fall on the 5th.Similarly, the software company also released its earnings report this week, with Q1 subscription revenue falling below expectations, causing the stock price to drop by over 8% on the 5th day. Higher interest rates and an unstable business environment are affecting new software investments, and the annual revenue guidance also fell below market estimates. BofA and Morgan Stanley lowered their target stock prices.BofA and Morgan Stanley lowered their target stock prices.BofA and Morgan Stanley lowered their target stock prices.、成長と利益率の見通しに懸念を示している。
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Stocks last week, on the 3rd.約10％下落し、9営業日で17％以上の下落を記録した。この下落の主因には、Antitrust lawandConcerns over production delays for AI chip Blackwell.,Concerns about performance.,US economy slowdown.,Seasonal factors in September.,Sector RotationAnd, Suspicions of stock sales by Mr. Pelosi(Investor Jason A. Williams posted on the 3rd that Mr. Pelosi sold NVIDIA shares before the sharp drop) and others. In Wall Street, opinions are divided on whether it is the right time to buy NVIDIA, but the leadership and evaluation in the AI chip market are still recognized.
On the other hand, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$isShowed a positive trend. Although the stock price fell by more than 10% after the July earnings announcement, in the past 3 months Increased by over 25%in particularFSD (full self-driving)andExpectations for Robotaxisupported the stock price. Additionally, on the 5th, Tesla announced plans to introduce FSD in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, and in October, the Robotaxi eventevent for RobotaxiandQ3 customer deliveriesandEarnings reportsIt is also planned. Cathy Wood remains bullish on Tesla. However, UBS has expressed caution about the stock price.
出所：FactSet、MINKABU、Bloomberg、investing、ロイター
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