Nio analysis
Nio to will launch its Onvo sub-brand in May. It is priced in the the RMB 200,000 (USD27,800) to RMB 300,000 range and is targeted at the mass market.
Nio's Firefly is a low- to mid-range sub-brand expected to target the market priced within RMB 200,000. The Nio main brand focuses on the premium market priced above RMB 300,000. Nio would launch the Firefly brand in Europe in 2025.
The sub-brands will help Nio ramp up deliveries with lower costs and help it move towards profitability.
Nio has broken out of downtrend line 1 which means it's long-term bullish. It is moving within falling wedge 1 with the support zone at 4.00-5.19. It is very close to the apex of the falling wedge which means that it may have bottomed at 4.36 and may break out soon.
It may rise to resistances around 6.34, 7.00 and 10.21. It may rise to the resistance of falling wedge 2. Hence, Nio is looking bullish in the weeks ahead.
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VIVEK SURANA : Losing money even on 400000 yuan car , I don't know how will they make money on a 200000 car, how many corners wil NiO cut to make ONVO so cheap.
bullrider_21 OP VIVEK SURANA : As usual, you see the negativity in everything.
VIVEK SURANA bullrider_21 OP : The main thing I was expecting from ONVO was the compatibility with existing battery swap stations. That could have been a game changer and set it apart from the rest of the brands. But knowing that it is not compatible with the existing battery swap removes the biggest differentiation of the NiO brand. I still hope NiO will be able to show some USP of ONVO which can set it apart from other brands.
102544121 VIVEK SURANA : There isn’t any confirmation claim that it will not compatible with existing swap station yet. From the CEO himself, he only mention it can swap during the live stream. He never clearly stated Onvo cannot use NT3 swap platform. We shall see this coming May. Also even the swap station is not there, you can find Xiaomi Su7 Tesla Model Y, Aito (both extender and NEV) as a sample case study, where it still can sell more if even don’t have swap capabilities. The price range is similar.
VIVEK SURANA 102544121 : Your comment shows that you dont really follow the news. NT3.0 is not related to swap its related to car manufacturing platform. The swap stations are defined in generation currently NiO is building 3rd generation swaps which are not compatible with any other cars except NiO and it was clearly mentioned in earning call. The ONVO and other partners will be compatible with 4th gen swap station, whose construction is expected to start from this month. If you dont believe me, you can read the earnings call transcript.
102544121 VIVEK SURANA : Onvo is going to build with NT3.0 technology. I am just saying from current news, Onvo will be using 4th generation of swap station. That why I am saying there isn’t any confirmation yet if NT3.0 Onvo car can use the current swap station because during earning call Li Bin only mentioned there are portion of the swap station will be exclusively for NIO brand and majority will be used for the rest of the car. And he does not say currently all swap station cannot be used by Onvo. I need to repeat myself this is from the mandarin recorded earning call from Li Bin instead of the English version that you read. That why I say better wait this coming May. So you need to learn mandarin huh?
102544121 VIVEK SURANA : Let say the worst case scenario. None of the swap station is compatible with Onvo. That is the worst right? None of the current swap stations able to convert to 4th generation
And you mention 4th generation swap station will be build this month onward. Isn’t it there will be at least 900 4th swap station to be build by the end of the year? Since Jan they only build around 100 swap station, since you follow the news better than me, you should know this right
爱吃面包的大灰狼 : Policy and market double kill, electric vehicles have no future
VIVEK SURANA 102544121 : The point here is that the backward compatibility would have improved the utilization of existing swaps, which could have made the swap more profitable and ONVO more appealing. Now, the older swap will keep burning money due to low utilization, and ONVO is again starting from zero swap, on top of that many other companies will have compatibility with 4th gen swap, while it may reduce the build cost for NiO but ONVO will loose the differentiation factor.
bullrider_21 OP VIVEK SURANA : The main thing is swap compatibilty with other Nio models. Swap compatibilty with other brands is secondary. Maybe it is deliberately made this way to lower the cost.
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