Nomura Projects Alibaba Qtr Results Roughly In Line; Rating Buy

Nomura expects Alibaba to report 1QFY25 results ending June largely in line with market consensus. Customer management revenue (CMR) is forecast to rise 2.8% YoY to RMB81.9 billion. Total GMV from Taobao and Tmall may increase 8% YoY, driven by Taobao's focus on value-for-money products and price competitiveness, potentially impacting e-commerce monetization.

Nomura projects Alibaba's consolidated revenue for 1QFY25 to gain 7% YoY to RMB251 billion, in line with market expectations. EBITA may decline 6% YoY to RMB43 billion, also in line with consensus. The broker maintained its target price on Alibaba US shares at USD101 with a Buy rating.