Note to self on SP Setia
I have never been a fan of the real estate sector. mainly because i dont understand the sector and what drives its performance.
secondly, because i always believe that supply > demand.
1st trade:
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2nd trade:
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3rd trade:
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for the third trade - initial intention was to hold for long term investment. initial gut feel was 1.18 was a good entry price but few issues that made me 2nd guessed this:
1. Rental guarantee issue at battersea commercial building - they will bleed, at least for the next few months ( i can re-enter then)
2. current trading multiple is equivalent to its peers, hard to see the potential uplift unless….
3. management team: little faith in their ability for any meaningful value creation
exit at 1.26, why? initial TP of 1.27 and 1.28. but keep seeing retracement from 1.26. concluded that it will not go any higher today, probably monday it will. but rule of thumb, i dont hold any positions over weekends for non-investment trade.
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wJx0706 : I wanted to ask. What does weekend position mean for non-investment trades?
WealthGen OP wJx0706 : If i’m not keeping the stocks in my portfolio / not planning to hold it long term.
Swing trading, i always make sure i dont hold the stocks over the weekend.
Fama1973 : Yes! same though as mine
wJx0706 WealthGen OP : Reduce the risk of stocks falling next week?
WealthGen OP wJx0706 : I dont know whats gonna happen over the weekend or what the smart money/market maker will plan for monday morning.
Since i dont hold it anymore, if the price goes down to an acceptable level, i’ll buy it again.
wJx0706 WealthGen OP : Understood, thank you.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
market_novice : The main 3 factors that drive real estate sector is interest rates, supply and demand and government policies.
1. Interest rate
With Fed has started rate reduction this week and more cuts expected after this, it's easier to borrow money and invest in properties. Same goes to companies as it is easy to borrow money for projects
2. supply and demand
Contradictory to your believe, I believe that the demand is always higher than supply in real estate. That is the reason you can see big projects under big companies getting sold out even before completion. Property sector is a place most investors put money for long term cash generation. And well established company like Setia is focused in major cities like Selangor and JB, the demand is always higher. Setia also has huge land bank in JB, which is supported well by projects like JSSEZ.
3. Government policies
policies like tax exemption, foreign investment policies and local incentives can boost property market as well
this is just my pov. in market, everyone can have their own pov. just sharing for info[Peace]
WealthGen OP market_novice : Thanks for sharing.
Point (1) Our BNM OPR remain the same, so its still status quo. Dont think SPSetia has any USD borrowings - doesnt make sense to borrow in foreign currency denomination that you dont operate in.
Point (2) i see your point, but where I’m seeing thing is, i see Sime projects, Ecoworld projects. I dont see much spsetia. I dont buy things that i cant see and hence cant forecast the company prospects - just my view. I’m curious on this development in JB and will defeinitely look into it, thanks for sharing. (3) not aware on any government policy that will directly benefit SPSetia, but will look into it too.
Thanks for sharing mate!
Muntri George : Yes, SPSETIA battered by the sea! Bought at 1.52, silly me.. Long waiting for the loss Battersea Power Plant debacle. Next year, hopefully.
WealthGen OP Muntri George : Yes some of us will make that unlucky call from time to time. Hang in there. If you hold for long term investment purposes, that shouldnt bother you that much i guess.