$NOTION (0083.MY)$ 1.37 Long position Company Bullish: 1) Th...

丰衣足食 commented on a stock · Dec 12 04:38

$NOTION (0083.MY)$

1.37 Long position

Company Bullish: 1) There is a theme (such as the datacenter construction project in Malaysia).

2) The US Dollar is strong, the exchange rate is favorable.

3) Cheap valuation.

Now buying at 1.37.
You can enjoy a dividend of 1 sen, and the company will announce the distribution date.

The business of HDD, EMS, and the Automobile sector will grow, with the boss saying it can increase by 20-25% by 2025.

6) The fundamentals are sound, with net cash of 33 million after deducting debt, and no risk of bankruptcy.

Analyst added that any further protectionist policies introduced by the USA. President-elect Trump may create additional trade shift opportunities for Malaysia under the 'China Plus One' strategy.

For the 2025 fiscal year, the estimated EPS is 10-13 cents, with a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 20 times, resulting in a stock price range of Rm2 to Rm2.60.

At a price of 1.37, investors are advised to consider the company for the following reasons: 1) The company's involvement in a data center construction project in Malaysia. 2) The strength of the US dollar and favorable exchange rates. 3) The company is currently undervalued. 4) By purchasing at 1.37, investors can anticipate a dividend of 1 sen along with the upcoming announcement of delivery dates. 5) Anticipated growth in sectors like hdd, ems, and the automobile industry, with potential growth of 20-25% by 2025 as indicated by the management. 6) Strong fundamentals with a net cash balance of 33 million after debt deduction, minimizing bankruptcy risk. 7) Analysts have highlighted the opportunity for Malaysia in trade diversification, especially amid potential protectionist measures from the United States under President-elect Trump's administration. 8) For fiscal year 2025, the estimated earnings per share (eps) range from 10 to 13 cents, with a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio (pe) of 20 times, reflecting a stock price range of RM2 to RM2.60.

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Digital Storage And Memory Projections For 2025, Part 1

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2025 Digital Storage and Memory Forecast, Part 1

Thomas Kovlin

Author

Covering digital storage technology and market. 2024 IEEE President

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USA Eastern Standard Time, 01:48 AM, December 6, 2024

Hard Disk Drive GETTY

Over the years, I have written a series of articles outlining my predictions for various digital storage and non-volatile storage technologies for the coming year and beyond. This will be my first projection article for 2025, focusing on magnetic recording technology, particularly Hard Disk Drives (HDD) and magnetic tape.

The general decline in demand for hard drives (as well as other digital storage and memory products) began in 2022 and continued for most of 2023, seemingly ending in 2024. Simply put, due to the replacement by SSDs and cloud storage, the demand for traditional HDD applications like personal computers and consumer electronics continued to decline long-term in 2024, which may include HDDs, but closer to high-capacity HDDs rather than smaller capacity HDDs. Shipments of these traditional hard drives decreased by over 20% year-on-year.

However, it is expected that unit shipments of high-capacity nearline hard drives in 2024 will grow by about 42% compared to 2023. In 2023, shipments of these high-capacity nearline hard drive devices decreased by about 37% compared to 2022, which saw a 15% year-on-year decline. By 2024, the excess inventory of nearline hard drives has been depleted and demand is increasing for low-cost data storage for AI and other data-intensive computing applications.

The results of the last quarter of 2024 have not been announced yet, but my estimate is that the overall HDD shipments in 2024 will be about 2% higher than in 2023, reaching approximately 124 million units. This is the first year-on-year shipment growth since 2010, despite the low numbers of storage decline from 2022-2023. It is estimated that the HDD capacity shipments will increase by about 39% from 2023 to 2024, reaching 1.2 ZB. In 2024, HDD total revenue may increase by about 45% compared to 2023, reaching $19.5 billion. We expect the total HDD capacity to reach around 7.3 ZB by 2029.
The chart below shows the historical HDD shipments, as well as the high, median, and low estimates for HDD shipments up to 2029.

Unit shipment history and forecast up to 2029 [+]

Hard Disk Drive

Kolin Association

In 2024, the estimated market share of HDD shipments for the three HDD manufacturers, Seagate and Western Digital, is around 40%, while Toshiba accounts for 20%.

HDD companies state that they are entering into long-term agreements with major customers to ensure meeting their expected demand and to prevent overproduction. Overall, the average selling price of HDDs has increased in 2024, as shown in the chart, with the historical HDD ASP from 1998 to the third quarter of 2024. The HDD ASP price in the third quarter of 2024 is now as high as it was at the end of the last century, mainly due to the increased percentage of high-priced nearline HDDs, although the higher prices of nearline HDDs in 2024 also made some contributions.
Nearline HDDs accounted for approximately 54% of the shipments in 2024 and are expected to account for over 90% of shipments by 2029.

Increasing the storage capacity of each drive will lead to a decrease in the price per data ($/TB). For high-capacity enterprise and datacenter hard drives, helium-sealed drives with more disks allow for higher capacity. Currently, these drives have a maximum of 11 disks (with the recent introduction of 32TB SMR drives by WDC). More disks may be possible, possibly up to 12 disks, but this would require moving these drives to thinner glass substrates harder than aluminum substrates, as well as changing the head height and suspension.

HDD capacity can also be increased by shingling tracks, partially writing new tracks on existing tracks, although as the drive fills up, writing new data requires moving good data to another location, and then rewriting new and good data (this process is somewhat similar to the erase and write process of SSDs). This type of shingled magnetic recording or SMR drive is most effective for applications with few writes, with WDC indicating strong market demand for SMR HDDs.

HDD capacity can also be increased by increasing track density or linear density of information recorded on concentric tracks. While the increase in track density has slowed down, energy applied to highly stable magnetic recording media (with high coercivity) to allow for energy-assisted magnetic recording is the best hope for increasing magnetic recording linear density.
WDC is currently using what they call ePMR, which stabilizes written bits, they refer to it as a form of energy-assisted recording. This is used in their latest near-line hard drives, including an 11-disk product, combined with their OptiNAND technology and SMR, achieving a capacity of 32TB. Toshiba states that they are using a microwave-assisted magnetic recording (MAMR) in high-capacity hard drives, but future 30+TB HDDs will also include heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR).

Seagate has also announced the use of HAMR in their recent 30TB hard drives, which use laser heating of the disk surface during the writing process. The company plans to start volume production of 30+TB drives by the mid-2020s. Fragmented versions of these HAMR drives can offer close to 36TB capacity. Seagate expects to have 40+TB products by 2026-2027 and 50+TB hard drives by the end of the decade.

With the introduction of HAMR HDDs in 2024 and planned increase in drive capacity, Seagate may have a significant advantage over WDC and Toshiba for several quarters, as ePMR and MAMR may not be able to offer such high disk storage capacity. To match these hard drive capacities, WDC either needs to strengthen its HAMR HDD program or, together with Toshiba, needs to purchase HAMR heads from TDK, perhaps needing HAMR media from Resonac (formerly Showa Denko). It is believed that the two companies are collaborating to develop HAMR products.

In recent years, Seagate and WDC have shipped some dual-actuator hard drives (rotational actuators split into two effective actuators on the same pivot point), but this technology has not taken off. It is expected that these dual-actuator drives (referred to by Seagate as Mach.2 drives) will become the standard fare for high-capacity drives, such as 40TB and above drives, as they can improve performance, and more importantly, can increase the rebuilding time of failed drives.
The figure below shows the latest HDD technology roadmap of the Advanced Storage Research Consortium (ASRC) from the IEEE TMRC Conference in 2022. ASRC is an industry consortium for HDDs, providing predictions for storage density growth (areal density is the average amount of information stored per area on an HDD disk). This image shows that by the mid-2030s, using a combination of technologies including HAMR, predicts HDDs with over 10 Tbpsi (should provide over 200TB drives).

HDD industry technology forecast by COUGHLIN ASSOCIATES

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The chart below shows the historical and forecasted decline in HDD storage prices in dollars/GB, expected until 2029. Please note, due to limited capacity, prices are temporarily rising in 2024.
Tapes also use magnetic recording, but the tape's areal density lags behind HDDs by many generations. This provides an important future technology for increasing storage capacity for tapes. However, tapes differ from hard drives as they use a flexible medium and can write or read multiple tracks at once.

This means that once installed in a tape drive, the data rate of tapes is much higher than that of HDDs. Hard drives are increasingly used for nearline storage, while tapes are used for storing colder data and archives. The main tape technology is LTO, with over 80% of the market balanced by IBM Enterprise Tape.

In August 2023, IBM announced its TS1170 tape drive, supporting up to 50TB of native storage capacity and higher compressed capacity. The product has a native data rate of 400 MB/s, with options for 12Gb SAS and 16Gb Fibre Channel interfaces. These drives support new tape media using strontium ferrite magnetic particles. The tape media is produced by Fujifilm, which also manufactures LTO media. This 50TB tape technology offers a 2.5x increase compared to the previous 20TB generation.

LTO tape is the most widely used tape with LTO 9, which is the highest transport capacity LTO tape available today. LTO 9 was introduced in 2019 but not widely released until September 2021. These tapes have a native capacity of 18TB (approximately 1/100 the areal density of hard drives). In 2022, the LTO Tape Consortium extended its roadmap to the 14th generation, with native storage capacity of up to 576TB. The roadmap is as follows.
LTO 10 products are expected to be released at some point in 2025, although they may not offer double the capacity of the 18TB LTO 9 tapes or a 36TB native tape cartridge capacity. However, if new LTO generations are typically released every three years and each generation doubles the capacity of the previous one, LTO 14 could potentially be launched around 2036, with a 576TB native tape cartridge capacity similar to the possible 200TB hard disk capacity.

Tape manufacturers have been promoting tape as a more sustainable storage medium because it requires minimal energy when tape cartridges are on the shelf. Fujifilm estimates that using tape reduces carbon emissions by about 43% compared to hard drives.

The total market for tape media, drives, and libraries may exceed $2 billion. IBM is the sole manufacturer of tape drives, while Fujifilm and Sony are the sole manufacturers of tape media. We estimate that total tape shipments in 2024 will be 204EB, rising to 411EB by 2029.

Compared to 2023, HDD shipments in 2024 are expected to grow by approximately 2%, with capacity increasing by about 39%. By the 2030s, we could have 200TB hard drives and 576TB tapes.