November 15 Market Analysis

Strong US retail sales data and hawkish remarks from some Federal Reserve officials on Friday heightened market doubts about expectations of interest rate cuts in December, causing US stocks to experience their biggest weekly decline in two months. Despite a 0.4% year-on-year increase in retail sales in October and a sharp increase in the previous value, market unease was still triggered by comments from some officials. They expressed their views on the current strong state of the economy and thought that there might be no need to further support the economy through interest rate cuts.

Technology stocks were particularly under pressure, and the news that Nvidia was delaying deliveries due to overheating Blackwell chips affected the stock price drop by more than 3%. Biotech stocks also suffered a severe setback, especially after Trump announced relevant health policies, and vaccine stocks fell sharply.

China Securities performed relatively well. Although Alibaba fell more than 2% after announcing its earnings report, the overall China Securities Index rebounded due to some positive policy news. According to China's economic data, the year-on-year increase in retail sales of social consumer goods and the increase in industrial value added supported the market's expectations for a steady recovery in the Chinese economy.

On the policy side, several ministers nominated by Trump have attracted widespread attention in the market, particularly the decision to nominate oil tycoons as energy ministers and Wall Street power brokers as finance ministers. These may all influence related industries and market policies in the future.

US bond yields and the US dollar experienced sharp fluctuations on Friday, and in the end, the US dollar index achieved its biggest weekly gain in six weeks. Bitcoin's price also reached a high of $0.09 million amid this series of political and economic changes.

In the commodity market, both gold and crude oil prices fell sharply. The Golden Week fell 4.6%, the biggest drop in three years, reflecting investors' concerns about upcoming political and economic uncertainty.

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