$NVDA earnings estimates.

At the Nvidia earnings, many are probably wondering, "Can they surpass the guidance by $2 billion for the sixth consecutive quarter and provide guidance exceeding $20 to $25 billion for the next quarter?". I believe this quarter will deliver earnings that meet expectations. There is a strong demand for AI accelerators and Nvidia's Blackwell Superchips, and considering that there doesn't seem to be much slowdown yet, I think they will still deliver good numbers. The concern is probably the stock price reaction that investors are most worried about. However, even if they release numbers that meet expectations and raise guidance, I don't think it will necessarily lead to an increase, because they may not be treated as "amazing numbers".

I think this quarter will deliver earnings that meet expectations. There is a strong demand for AI accelerators and Nvidia's Blackwell Superchips, and considering that there doesn't seem to be much slowdown yet, I think they will still deliver good numbers. The concern is probably the stock price reaction that investors are most worried about. However, even if they release numbers that meet expectations and raise guidance, I don't think it will necessarily lead to an increase, because they may not be treated as "amazing numbers".

Looking at the options market, it is clear that there is a bullish attitude towards earnings as usual. The stock price is expected to rise or fall by 8%. In other words, this is equivalent to a fluctuation of around $279 billion in market capitalization.

This is because the implied volatility of options expiring on November 22 is around 90%, a relatively high level. This IV is likely to continue to rise further towards the company's earnings announcement. However, once the company reports its earnings and the event risk passes, the IV is expected to drop rapidly, just like the movements seen after any event or earnings announcement.

However, just like the previous four quarters, the call delta significantly exceeds the put delta. Therefore, as the stock IV declines and the premiums of both puts and calls plummet, institutions need to reduce their hedges and prepare to sell the stocks.

In other words, simply put, looking at the positioning of the options, it suggests that it will be difficult for the stock price to break above the range of $145 to $150. As a conclusion, I think the earnings will probably be good. Will it meet expectations?

However, I am skeptical that it will trigger a sharp rise in stock prices.