$NVDA UBS

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Our recent supply chain checks confirm our prior suspicions that demand momentum for Blackwell rack-scale systems remains exceedingly robust. We now believe EPS of ~$5 could be doable for C2025 as the order pipeline for NVL72/36 systems is materially larger than just two months ago as hyperscaler budgets for C2025 firm up. This comes as sentiment on the stock - though still strong - has faded somewhat in recent weeks, creating more of a “wall of worry” that should be ultimately healthy if our outlook materializes. Even though our estimates have consistently been well ahead of Street, we are even now still baking in a gap to what is being suggested by the supply chain. We are raising our CY25 revenue/EPS estimates by 12%/15% to ~$204B/$4.95 (from $178B/$4.22) - far above sell side $161B/$3.62 though we do believe expectations among a subset of investors has risen to a range close to our new numbers. Given all of this, we believe a $150 PT can be supported (prior $120) and we maintain our Buy rating as we roll our valuation basis forward from C2025 EPS to an average of C2025/C2026 (which we model flattish at this point given visibility that is still a bit limited).