Nvidia, aiming to become the world's largest market capitalization! Ahead of the financial results, the five conditions for a rise in stock prices are coming together.
NvidiaStocksHistorical highsUpdated, becoming the momentum of "King's return".On October 21, with a 4% increase in stock price, the market capitalization exceeded 3.5 trillion dollars, once again approaching the leader Apple (3.6 trillion dollars). Nvidia has the potential to surpass Apple, which created the iPhone moment, and become the most valuable company in the USA.The momentum of Nvidia has been growing. With a 4% increase in stock price on October 21, the market value exceeded 3.5 trillion dollars, once again approaching the top-ranked Apple (3.6 trillion dollars). Nvidia has the potential to surpass Apple, which created the iPhone moment, and become the most 'valuable' company in the USA.
Nvidia's "King's return"、The conditions for a stock market rally seem to have come back..
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ On October 21st, it hit a new all-time high since listing, closing at $143.71. After the stock price exceeded $140 on June 20th, there was a period of adjustment, but finally, it showed the momentum of a 'return of the king'.
After the stock price rose by 4% on October 21, the market capitalization exceeded 3.5 trillion dollars, once again approaching the top position. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ As the sea approaches, if the benefits of the AI investment boom continue, Nvidia may surpass Apple, which once created the iPhone moment, and become the most 'valuable' company in the USA.
On October 21st, the U.S. stock market reacted negatively to the sharp rise in long-term interest rates, causing a slight decline in the S&P 500 index. Overall, major tech stocks were lackluster. Amid the soft market conditions, Nvidia set an all-time high, driven by Nvidia's own fundamentals.
1) Valuation has decreased, with the consideration of growth potential providing a sense of undervaluation as well
Nvidia's estimated P/E ratio (Price-to-Earnings ratio) hit about 44.2 times in mid-June, exceeding the 5-year average of 40.7 times. As of October 21st, despite reaching an all-time high, the estimated P/E ratio is about 38.6 times, below the 5-year average.
Nvidia's valuation has become more attractive compared to other major tech giants when considering its growth potential.
（10月11日付の「「マグニフィセント7」復活の気配！業績とバリュエーションで魅力増す！最強銘柄は？Refer to the endnotes for more details.)
2）主要顧客によるAI向け投資拡大は継続か
今回の決算発表シーズン序盤では露光装置大手の $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ Following a sharp decrease in order backlog, concerns about a decline in investment for AI emerged. However, the earnings reports of TSMC, which handles the production of AI semiconductors, alleviated those concerns. Nevertheless, ASML's lackluster earnings reports also played a significant role.Non-AI related areas are weak.Due to that,The AI-related sector is booming.Indicated that.
今回の決算発表シーズン序盤では露光装置大手の $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ Following a sharp decrease in order backlog, concerns about a decline in investment for AI emerged. However, the earnings reports of TSMC, which handles the production of AI semiconductors, alleviated those concerns. Nevertheless, ASML's lackluster earnings reports also played a significant role.Non-AI related areas are weak.Due to that,The AI-related sector is booming.Indicated that.
なお、 $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ は旺盛な需要を背景に、2024年通期の売上高見通しを再び上方修正した。経営陣は決算説明会で、「2025年の設備投資は今年を上回る公算が非常に大きい」と説明。AI重要の持続について懸念が生じているなか、同社CEOは「The demand is real..It has only just begun.stated that he believes
Nvidia's major customers $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ 、 $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ Companies such as Nvidia are scheduled to announce earnings at the end of October, at which time it will be necessary to confirm the investment plan for AI equipment. However, based on the earnings reports of ASML and TSMC, there is a high possibility that tech giants will continue to expand their investment in AI.
Concerns about the impact of Blackwell's delay have subsided.
Nvidia revealed the delay of the latest AI semiconductor, Blackwell, during the last earnings call, which weighed down the stock price. However, it has been disclosed since then that although Blackwell will be delayed, shipments will begin by the end of this year and full-scale shipments will start early next year, according to customers. $Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, recently stated in the latest earnings call thatstated that the demand for Blackwell is 'crazy',and eliminated concerns about the impact of the delay on demand.
Nvidia revealed the delay of the latest AI semiconductor, Blackwell, during the last earnings call, which weighed down the stock price. However, it has been disclosed since then that although Blackwell will be delayed, shipments will begin by the end of this year and full-scale shipments will start early next year, according to customers. $Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, recently stated in the latest earnings call thatstated that the demand for Blackwell is 'crazy',and eliminated concerns about the impact of the delay on demand.
Before earnings reports, there is a strong tendency for stock prices to rise on performance expectations.
After the popularity of ChatGPT since the end of 2022, when checking NVIDIA's stock price movement, there is a tendency for the stock to rise on performance expectations before earnings reports. After earnings reports, there may be instances where profit-taking selling pressure emerges after some time. However, with the continuation of good performance and upward revisions of target stock prices by analysts, the stock price has regained an upward trend.
After the popularity of ChatGPT since the end of 2022, when checking NVIDIA's stock price movement, there is a tendency for the stock to rise on performance expectations before earnings reports. After earnings reports, there may be instances where profit-taking selling pressure emerges after some time. However, with the continuation of good performance and upward revisions of target stock prices by analysts, the stock price has regained an upward trend.
After TSMC's earnings reports, $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ on October 18, the analyst in charge raised Nvidia's target stock price from the previous $165 to $190. This level now represents the most bullish target price for Nvidia.
As the earnings call approaches, investor sentiment towards Nvidia's stock has also recovered. According to Bloomberg's latest survey, 45% of respondents expressed the view that Nvidia's strong performance will further push up the stock price.
5) Strong demand for AI semiconductors and Nvidia's continued dominance
The most important factors for Nvidia's medium to long-term outlook seem to be the strong demand for AI semiconductors and whether Nvidia's dominance will continue. Current information on these two points is supporting Nvidia's stock.
The most important factors for Nvidia's medium to long-term outlook seem to be the strong demand for AI semiconductors and whether Nvidia's dominance will continue. Current information on these two points is supporting Nvidia's stock.
First, based on the earnings reports of nvidia's suppliers and the status of customer product introductions,demand for nvidia's AI semiconductors continues to be strong.It has been indicated.
Next, despite Blackwell's delay, the demand is "crazy".Nvidia's dominance continues.It seems that AMD's competitor announced a competing product on October 11, but it is expected to be about one year behind Blackwell, so the threat from NVIDIA is likely to continue for a while.
Created on October 22, 2024 Market Analyst Julie.
Source: Created by moomoo Securities from Blommberg.
Source: Created by moomoo Securities from Blommberg.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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184295026 : There may be a last-minute turnaround like the earnings report at the end of August. At that time, leading up to the earnings report, the "world panic" that began with the breakout above 8th (Mon) spread worldwide. Over time and days, by the end of the same month, the breakout above began to recover 60-70% in the Japanese and American markets. Before the company's simultaneous earnings report, various economic news reports day after day expressed high expectations for the earnings of N-Beauty, and the market was excited about it. However, in reality, immediately after the earnings report was released with good results, various institutions and funds, which are major players in the market, threw away the company's stocks due to the content of the next profit forecast, despite the good earnings. Individuals all over the world saw this rapid drop in stock prices and panicked, resulting in a significant drop from nearly $128 before the earnings report to almost $100 eventually. There is a precedent for this market disaster. And now, N-Beauty has once again risen to its peak, although it is not around $160 like before the July foreign exchange intervention, the yen depreciation is progressing to 152 yen. The conditions for another market disaster nightmare are in place now. And this time, there are also significant uncertainties such as the Japanese general election and the US presidential election. If you are reckless in the current market, there is a risk of getting caught at a high price and not recovering to a buying position for over six months, leading to the danger of significant unrealized losses from buying at a high price.
182361482 184295026 : It's not relevant to me, who aims for a 10-bagger in a 10-year hold.
Real Forest Gump stock.