$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ I listened last night to several analysts...
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ I listened last night to several analysts and I throw all analysts in a what I call a bobblehead category. these people are ones that I have a lot of high regard for meaning they're right a hell of a lot more than they are wrong number one number two when they're wrong they admit it they own their actions they come right out and say I was wrong. number three their analysis of short intermediate and long-term trends have proven themselves to be very reliable meaning that the way they look at an industry a sector evolution development is different than others that are so concerned about the little Pebble in front of their foot stubbing their toe these people are looking one year three or five years at general trends.
where I'm going with this is that the one commonality event that they all said is that this third quarter for NVIDIA is a non-event.. they said that historically the third quarter is the weakest quarter of all companies and it has to do typically with a capex expenditure that third quarter you really don't know the final quarter how it's going to be but in the fourth quarter is when companies actually step up who make a very large capital expenditure as a way to avoid paying taxes.
so the analysts all mention this and that's important to understand but it's not 100% relevant to Nvidia because Nvidia is having a product shift which is front and center and that's Blackwell.
all of the analysts that I read over they are saying that first quarter next year is the game changer for NVIDIA that you will see explosive growth first quarter.. and this will appease all of the naysayers about Nvidia and will show that what they are doing is evolutionary it's just not a next generation but it is a mandatory purchase not only for your hyperscalers but also the sovereign Nations your other governments your other companies around the world that are finally starting to spend money for the AI evolution that's taking place.
the dip this morning $4 and it could be $5 or $6 is trivial we were here on Monday it means nothing.
all of the people that were saying the price to earnings is high it's lower today than where it was 2 days ago because you see they exceeded revenue they exceeded earnings and it's a typical bullshit game well they guided lower. the reality is they didn't guide lower you had the same crap played this week that happens all too often were a few analyst revise their price of Nvidia revise their revenue and earnings and revise their guidance to levels that is unachievable. this is because you have what's called the rule of large numbers . very simply it's impossible for a company the size of Nvidia to keep growing at the same rate that they did 2 years ago or 3 years ago or even one year ago. so the rate of growth as a measure of percent will gradually decline. and this is what everybody is trying to caution about their rate of growth is slowing. I would prove all of these people wrong very simply by saying look at Apple in the first quarter of this year Apple was only growing their top line revenues at 2% yet the stock hit an all-time high. there was a time frame years ago in apple where they had the same type of exponential growth as Nvidia and the rule of large numbers no longer permits Apple to have that enormous rate of growth. however a nominal growth of 2% permits the stock to have an all-time high. what this means is a year from today two years from today 5 years from today and video will be setting all-time highs again despite the fact that their revenue growth five years from today might only be down at a 20% growth rate compared to the previous year.
the bottom line is buy Nvidia. if you don't own it take advantage of the few dollars it is sold off understand that you have three months where you don't have to have the headache the anxiety the stress of what will the numbers be and the stock will trade back up to another all-time high probably by the end of the year and what's called a Santa Claus rally.
what I am going to do is I'm going to be selling puts on the 2x leveraged ETF,that expires Friday tomorrow. the premiums are very large it's for me how I look at it as free money I want to own the stock I want to buy more of it so this is a way that I will go a dollar under the bid of the leverage ETF as it is and sell several hundred contracts and collect the premium for 2 days of trading. and I'm going to take that premium and I'm going to go out and buy the leveraged ETF directly.
don't sell Nvidia on this weakness it's not as if the stocks down 30 or 40 dollars $4 is nothing buy it on it next year this will be 150 160 if not higher
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