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$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ It’s astounding how irrational this marke...
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ It’s astounding how irrational this market can be. "They’re not growing enough anymore," yet the company is delivering record-breaking quarters and possesses a competitive moat strong enough to acquire some of the largest players in the industry. Do you honestly believe this stock won’t rise? Let’s leave the conspiracy theories aside and focus on the facts.
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Junius Falcon : Came across this recently, they are making language model as well and results seem great! They have many things under their sleeves. Many applications await for artificial intelligence, just like the internet isn't over after 20+ years.
Hymba Hybrid-Head Architecture Boosts Small Language Model Performance | NVIDIA Technical Blog https://developer.nvidia.com/blog/hymba-hybrid-head-architecture-boosts-small-language-model-performance/
scarlight : The reason why of not growing enough.
1/ It's valuation in the previous years is incredibly smaller and now as you can see it is comparable to Apple the biggest company in the world. Then it is logical for it to slow down in growing.
2/ Sale: Its AI chips find more buyers but let us be realistic. Aside from big companies like the Magnificent 7 to buy AI chips who or what countries in the world actually has the money to buy more than US monopoly??? So sale's growth eventually reduce. Beat earning but yes slow down in growth.
3/ AI as you may know is not an innovative it is a quick charger. Instead of using people and ask them to learn they use AI to do the job faster. then when they get enough AI they make AI to make more AI. That is what Microsoft and Amazon are doing. AI replaces humans and then AI replaces AI.
AI is not making anything new they are there to make things faster. It fit the world dynamics that value efficiency but it will dissolve itself as well.
Junius Falcon scarlight : 1. NVDA was selling GPU mostly for gaming and it is a very small market with limited growth, yet stock price kept up because it makes new cards sold to broader emerging markets. I believe using PE back then is inappropriate at least for the coming years.
2. Point 1 will apply the same way. India is not yet in. The world is big.
3. AI will make better automation and faster work in civil, industrial and military tasks. Imagine companies will get larger profits, pay more taxes, the government will become more rich and start to pay out universal income to its citizens. This can become an economy revolution as well as industrial one.
scarlight Junius Falcon : hmm the thing is you want to analyse stock movement you have to follow the rule of wall street analysis.
They use their metric as comparable to the past and current economic situation to make stock movement.
If you do not follow Wall Street's rules, stocks' movement will not follow your ideas. Because Wall Street makes the rules to value and they are the ones who move stocks not us normal people.
Junius Falcon scarlight : Wall Street says 150 to 200 next year lol, not 90 to 120. Usually companies with high growth potential have high PE, as the market is always forward looking.
scarlight Junius Falcon : but next year miss, not now. Also Wall Street reaction is quite mixed some think it will go up and some think it will go down.
However, they agree with the stock movement after earning of not growing enough
Junius Falcon scarlight : Starting with PE TTM is not far from PE in 2022 (recent market low). If projection is relatively accurate, we are looking to a PE of 30ish next year. If it miss a bit, it won't change the forward PE much. If big miss, yes it will be terrible. However is it likely to happen ? I believe with the demand of Blackwell and the coming Ruby, I feel assured. M7 making good money, GDP growth projection 2 to 3% per quarter. So far so good.
随心 : M7 have not received corresponding returns from artificial intelligence yet.
Junius Falcon 随心 : Imagine they have good earning without much from AI yet, that is what I meant by they can afford.
Dan’l : I took these analysts’ so-called whispers of being under-impressed as an opportunity to buy $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ at a five-ten dollar discount (buUut… still sold, after the rise ~;-)
Blackwell does seem to have issues (supply chain, overheating), and there’s a point where the training of large language models will become more of a service previous customers provide… the logical shift should be towards reasoning; making effective use of data, for which much more cost-efficient solutions can be found (enter $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$, $IBM Corp (IBM.US)$, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$, et al. ~;-)