$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Here is the question: If Huawei really la...
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Here is the question: If Huawei really launches their AI chip, and the Chinese government initiates an anti-discrimination investigation against Nvidia, will Nvidia's stock price be like this today?
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习近平不是维尼熊 : First of all, many companies can develop ai chips. Huawei, even if it launches the fastest, is still two generations behind Nvidia. Unless Huawei's rnd capabilities surpass AMD, it is possible to surpass AMD, only one generation behind Nvidia.
Nvidia's moat has never been in ai chips or technology. These things can be surpassed with money and time. Nvidia's moat lies in the CUDA system and the entire Nvidia ecosystem. Hardware drivers, compatible software, and even now, the mainstream AI technologies are all primarily compatible with Nvidia.
量化乾坤 OP 习近平不是维尼熊 : Many people can develop AI chips. Who else has developed AI chips?
If Nvidia sells its latest AI chips to China, will there be any difference with Huawei if they don't sell? CUDA is not a moat either.
量化乾坤 OP 习近平不是维尼熊 : Nvidia is a major compatible target, and I don't disagree with that. However, it is also in the USA. It is no longer the case in China. What I want to ask now is the stock price. If what you said is true, Nvidia's stock price today would definitely be strong. Regardless of the wind and rain, just like Maotai. However, the fact is that Nvidia's stock price is like this, which shows that Nvidia is just a supporting role.
习近平不是维尼熊 : Currently, ai chips are dominated by nvidia, with AMD slated to begin shipments next quarter, reflecting in their performance reports. Intel's collaboration with IBM will also start releasing product information in 2025.
Nvidia has always been able to sell to china, with export restrictions only targeting the highest-end cutting-edge products. Moreover, currently, even with performance cuts, their products still outperform AMD. ASML is also restricted from exporting high-precision products to China.
The question arises - can AI chips manufactured using ASML's stripped-down products impact AMD's performance and create pressure for nvidia? Huawei is currently directionless, so even if they start research now, do you think they can start production by 2026? Unless you believe that using secondary products can surpass three generations of high-end lithography machines.
If one fails to recognize that CUDA is a moat, it indicates a significant lack of understanding about the overall semiconductor industry.
Currently, companies like Microsoft's OpenAI, Google's Gemini, Meta's llama, Musk's XAI, and Amazon's Q all utilize the CUDA platform for software and hardware coordination. Setting aside the high migration costs for a product without an ecosystem, purely in terms of product efficiency, it is fundamentally negative in terms of returns.
If you claim that Huawei might snatch orders from Nvidia in China, can you calculate which domestic AI research company currently holds one-tenth of the orders from the big seven?
量化乾坤 OP : If you can't argue with me, just block me. Ah. Then don't comment, okay.