TSLA
Tesla
-- 453.190 NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 139.835 RGTI
Rigetti Computing
-- 14.7900 PLTR
Palantir
-- 82.890 LAES
SEALSQ Corp
-- 8.840 
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Translation: they remain bullish because ...
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Translation: they remain bullish because they HAVE to be. Blackwell is overheating after months of development and what is Jensen's response? It's the server rack's fault, not his. ![]()
The analysts know that each subsequent quarter will have diminishing returns in terms of YoY revenue growth compared to the +265% down to +94% three quarters later. Once the AI infrastructure is built out demand will dry up rapidly, not to mention that Jensen is already talking about "demand from other AI startups," acknowledging that AI giants like Meta and Tesla are already decreasing Cap Ex on these chips. Oh, and don't forget that if SMCI is found to have been cooking their books they are a major purchaser from NVDA, and make up a significant portion of NVIDIA's accounts receivable, AKA "we haven't been paid yet."
This bubble will pop, and the analysts know they have to be "bullish" until they can no longer deny it.
The analysts know that each subsequent quarter will have diminishing returns in terms of YoY revenue growth compared to the +265% down to +94% three quarters later. Once the AI infrastructure is built out demand will dry up rapidly, not to mention that Jensen is already talking about "demand from other AI startups," acknowledging that AI giants like Meta and Tesla are already decreasing Cap Ex on these chips. Oh, and don't forget that if SMCI is found to have been cooking their books they are a major purchaser from NVDA, and make up a significant portion of NVIDIA's accounts receivable, AKA "we haven't been paid yet."
This bubble will pop, and the analysts know they have to be "bullish" until they can no longer deny it.
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Just a dude highly interested in the financial markets who wants to share helpful info along the journey.
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GoldenApe : didn't large caps went down after earnings because they projected larger cap ex, in the future, because of ai?
Derpy Trades OP GoldenApe : It's been a major concern. Their responses have collectively been "it's a bigger risk NOT to invest as much as possible in AI." Basically, they're stuck in this loop of building out an AI infrastructure, even though it has not proven to be profitable yet, and no one wants to be the first to admit this. The first to admit AI is not, or at least will not be profitable for many years, will be the one who pops the bubble. My guess is it will be NVIDIA's first bad earnings report that will send up the red flag for the whole house of cards.
73372627 Derpy Trades OP : Will be no red flag. The interest in AI is unbelived. Billions and billions are put on this. The biggers players on semi and soft are all-in. I do not know from where you took information to say is not profitable, but look the earning at the companies which implanted. theirs revenues grow.
Sorry to contradite about the NVDA grow. Your date is not correct. I will put YtD. So 24 Nov 2023 till today 24 Nov 2024:
Grow 2.165x mean 296.74%
On the 252 trading days was:
161 days positive (green) 63.89%
97 days negative (red) 36.11%
So the return on investment is here.
About the ER's:
Show grow from quarter to quarter. The Q4 will be also positive. I do really why the ppls look just expectations???!!!!????? Is wrong. Those who give those flu-flu expectations are banded by institutional or personal interests. Who belive them???, basic no real investor took in consideration this (ask Warren about this). You have to look at the results as are. Grow on all parameters, without Blackwell and FX 50 series. The servers has the problems due to the old data and communication (network) which is to old, perimetric and obsolete for this new concept and technology.
In conclusion: I do not know what the ppls expected more??? 100 B net revenue???. this at the end of 2026.
Derpy Trades OP 73372627 : Thanks for contributing your insight. I was not able to follow everything you said, but my main point is that right now the market is pricing in insane growth but it's not actually sustainable. It's not that NVDA is not profitable, but that its valuation is far above its ability to actually produce.