$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ we rally up to the 28th maybe? and then J...
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ we rally up to the 28th maybe? and then Jensen drops the bombshell that Blackwell is delayed for how long?
this clearly will impact the earnings for at least one quarter I would think.. do you agree disagree??
and upon confirmation of a delay even if they exceed the earnings the revenue The whisper number do you believe it's going to Gap higher on a delay?
I don't think so I think it would drop quite significantly because it would represent a disappointment and it represents confirmation of what super micro said in their quarter about supply chain issues with gpus..
it's not a lack of demand it's a lack of supply
I owned a very large mortgage Company at one point in a different chapter in my life we had tens of thousands of customers many repeat because we provided outstanding service a great value and it was a win-win transaction for them they won they were happy we made money everybody goes away a winner. in 2008 when the world came to an end and financing seized up even though we had a warehouse line of credit for a lot of money and even though we could act as a correspondent broker or a broker.. we chose not to risk our money but to use others and they across the board stop lending because the risk was too high.
what happened everything crashed where I'm going with this is even though there's an insatiable demand which we had with our customers and many other companies there was no supply of financing available to provide to our customers and the market crashed..so if Nvidia announces a delay and confirms it is them for 3 months 2 months I think they're going to be punished severely I own the stock I'm going to continue holding it. is this a bump in the road what I think is going to happen on the 28th or is this a derailment of the train w Jenson at the controls?
remember I told you and you can go back and verify this I watch the interview two weeks ago where he was being asked questions at the tech conference just prior to Zuckerberg doing a back and forth dialogue and I told everybody Jensen to me seemed extremely nervous. I told you that I've interviewed thousands of people in capacity of an employer looking for employees over my lifetime and you develop this ability to see when someone is nervous when they're hiding something when they're waiting for a question to be asked and all their anxiety is built up. and I told you that when this woman asked Jensen the question you had tail winds up until now but it appears the tail winds are turning into a headwind how are you going to.. Jensen had a huge gulp swallow.. and then he played politician and laughed it off and spun the answer. it's my feeling he knew about this delay and now the question is how bad will it be and how will the market respond.
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151323992 : So you think the people that didn't get the 10-1 split are having an impact on this by not being able to buy at current 1060 dollars
151323992 : By the way I agree it's gona go up inevitably
10baggerbamm OP 151323992 : well everybody that was on record date got the split or you bought it post-split pricing so I don't know really where you're going with that what I am saying is if and when Jensen says we have an issue with Blackwell running hot and we have to figure this out and we will but it will result in a blank delay of x amount of time.. there's no way in my mind I can justify a stock trading higher on any type of delay just look at Tesla. Bloomberg broke a story nothing came from the company about robo taxis being delayed the stock traded down. and then it bumped around until it came from Tesla there's going to be a delay to October and then it traded down lower. now robo taxis represent zero income zero revenue to the company at this point in time so I would argue that that is much less of a disappointment to Wall Street then what Jensen said Blackwell will be their greatest chip their highest profit margin greatest revenue driver in the company history. because when you preface it that way that this is the biggest the greatest the best and now you delay it.. that's devastating.
151457816 : I hope that happens and it drops a lot, so I can buy
MomentumPython1337 : SMCI did say that blackwell will not affect their (smci) earnings until march 2025
10baggerbamm OP MomentumPython1337 : so that's the best case scenario.. many people I think will take a step back and say prove to me that your 3-month delay isn't going to turn into a 4-month delay. just as we saw this chatter that took the tech socks and AI stocks down significantly ..regarding cap X well when will all this money translate into profits . I mean out of nowhere they started repeating this every idiot on TV.. well we don't know when capex is going to pay off will it be 2 years 3 years 5 years will they never get their money back are they spending needlessly?? everybody here heard it unless you're hiding under a rock and that was a reason for a rug pull. so will a 3-month delay turn into four?? I would say that you're going to have a lot of people that are not going to take Jensen at his word if he says this will be less than one quarter.. but we will resume our upper trend we have everything pre-sold we're going to exceed our 2024 revenues in 2025 by 150% this is going to be a great year and Ruben is right around the corner.. there's a license plate I think it's Missouri the show me state.. I think people are going to say that to Jensen..
show me.
MomentumPython1337 : the reason smci is dropping is because people can't come to terms with the fact that companies have to incur short term costs to expand and gain market share it's the same story with how googl meta have to overinvest in AI and not underinvest. the long term gameplan with SMCI is to expand the market share of direct liquid cooling from 1% market share to more than that, 10% or more. and according to their claims they have 70-80% of that 1% and if that 1% goes to 10% SMCI will reap the fruits of their labor. they had to take a hit on gross margin to get the supply faster and meet demand and establish that relationship and presence. they also managed to cut the overreliance on big buyers no single company has more than 10% of total sales now which is far better than 1Q and 2Q's ago.
i digressed a bit but my point here is the AI story is just starting there's a lot of noise here a lot of speculation and new entrants and new traders who have a short term view they think the AI mania is overhyped then I can only say that these stocks are not for them they should stick to buying stocks in walmart costco coke and Pepsi.
the AI story is just beginning and in my humble opinion the blackwell gpu is just a minor piece of that, companies will still buy GPUs it doesn't have to be blackwell it can be whatever nvda already offers right now the H100s or even the ones before that the V100s and the A100s.
in the grand scheme of things I will be very happy if nvda gets sold some more and hits 80 or even 70 because that's an opportunity to add more dips and I will be holding this for 10 years
MomentumPython1337 : if a new competitor to nvda emerges in the coming years (maybe it's astera labs or maybe it's groq or maybe it's amd or intel whoever) and shows themselves to be as competent as nvda then good i might also buy their stock. but it's not going to happen overnight it's going to happen in a gradual way and anyone who cares to watch their earnings and monitor the landscape will see it coming. but the Ai story is still there and you will still need companies to provide the rest of the pipeline that's where dell or smci come in and so they still win.
of course this is the picture i have for 10-20 years down the line it's not a foolproof one I'm not saying it 100% will happen but that's part of investing it's about making probable bets and then having the patience to let that bet play out
10baggerbamm OP : you made a very valid point the naysayers the bobbleheads on TV they missed the whole run in the first place they didn't believe in it they didn't buy into it everything was always compared to Cisco 1999 many of these people on TV were not around during the dot-coms but they're parrots of what somebody else says they just repeat and regurgitate the same story kind of like what the media does ABC CBS NBC they just all are the same story at the same time the same script. and these people are the ones telling us to buy coke and Walmart just like you said absolutely spot on. some people's ego is so large they refused to admit when they're wrong and they keep doubling down and tripling down and refused to acknowledge that they are wrong. you either believe in what Dan I've says that it's 9:00 p.m. and the party goes to 4:00 a.m. because he has not deviated changed his convictions one bit despite this bloodbath of a sell-off from July 11th to Monday morning. so you either believe that this is evolutionary what's happening now or just like you said stay the hell out of it stay in the old cyclical Giants and maybe put your toe in IBM your blue chip because that's about as tech savvy as you want to get.
10baggerbamm OP MomentumPython1337 : they're already is a new competitor and they're being funded and bankrolled by multi-billionaires I heard this company maybe two months ago on Twitter and their chip is everything Blackwell Reuben at 2x 3x speeds less than half the energy requirement and they already have a prototype built. I asked several key analysts that I respect on Twitter never heard back because they don't respond. I mean that's just what happens. I remembered also hearing Elon Musk say again within the past 3 months it's very easy to build a prototype it's very difficult to scale and those are his exact words so he said you know it's very easy for other companies to build an electric vehicle it's very difficult to scale it. so do some homework because you'll find this company that already has a prototype chip and they have billions and pre-orders billions of dollars already according to the CEO. Taiwan semi has already committed to helping them manufacture it. the name of this company escapes me but I'm telling you they're already is somebody that's nipping at the heels of Jensen
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