Nvidia has experienced a sudden 10% drop! Is this a major adjustment or a temporary one? Let's check the support level.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ On September 3, it fell 9.5%. Does this nearly 10% sharp decline suggest a significant adjustment, or will it be a temporary correction like the one in mid-April or early August? Let's examine the market environment surrounding Nvidia and future points to watch, and search for downside support levels.
Reasons for selling on September 3rd:
When we take a detailed look at Nvidia's earnings and the current market environment, the selling on September 3rd can be attributed to several factors.
1) Concerns about the sustainability of NVIDIA's high growth.
2) Resurgence of concerns about a slowdown in the US economy, cautious stance ahead of employment data.
3) September selling jinx.
4) Sector rotation.
When we take a detailed look at Nvidia's earnings and the current market environment, the selling on September 3rd can be attributed to several factors.
1) Concerns about the sustainability of NVIDIA's high growth.
2) Resurgence of concerns about a slowdown in the US economy, cautious stance ahead of employment data.
3) September selling jinx.
4) Sector rotation.
1) Concerns about the sustainability of NVIDIA's high growth.
NVIDIA announced its earnings on August 28, which exceeded market expectations. However, it fell short of the most bullish estimates, leaving investors somewhat disappointed who were expecting explosive growth. The stock price fell 6.4% on the day after the earnings release. It temporarily rebounded by 1.5% on the following day. However, on September 3, the first trading day of the month, it plummeted 9.5%. The larger decrease compared to the day after the earnings release is believed to be influenced by the following factors.
NVIDIA announced its earnings on August 28, which exceeded market expectations. However, it fell short of the most bullish estimates, leaving investors somewhat disappointed who were expecting explosive growth. The stock price fell 6.4% on the day after the earnings release. It temporarily rebounded by 1.5% on the following day. However, on September 3, the first trading day of the month, it plummeted 9.5%. The larger decrease compared to the day after the earnings release is believed to be influenced by the following factors.
2) Resurgence of concerns about a slowdown in the US economy, cautious stance ahead of employment data.
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August, which was announced on September 3, was 47.2, lower than the market expectation of 47.5. Following the previous month's lower-than-expected result, concerns about a slowdown in the US economy resurfaced. Just a month ago, at the beginning of August, NVIDIA shares and key indices experienced significant adjustments due to lower-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI. Afterward, when the employment data for July exceeded expectations, the key indices recovered. Based on the movement on September 3, it appears that investors lack confidence whether a similar development will occur this time. September is typically the weakest month of the year, and there was a cautious mood ahead of the employment data for August on September 6.
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August, which was announced on September 3, was 47.2, lower than the market expectation of 47.5. Following the previous month's lower-than-expected result, concerns about a slowdown in the US economy resurfaced. Just a month ago, at the beginning of August, NVIDIA shares and key indices experienced significant adjustments due to lower-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI. Afterward, when the employment data for July exceeded expectations, the key indices recovered. Based on the movement on September 3, it appears that investors lack confidence whether a similar development will occur this time. September is typically the weakest month of the year, and there was a cautious mood ahead of the employment data for August on September 6.
3) September selling jinx.
関連記事:US stocks vs the curse of September! Can fate be overcome? The investment strategy for September is
関連記事:US stocks vs the curse of September! Can fate be overcome? The investment strategy for September is
4) Sector rotation.
(*1 isWhy sell Nvidia first? Is there a possibility of a reversal? AI semiconductor Blackwell has a positive outlook! [Summary of earnings], *2 is3 sectors that are performing better than tech stocks! 3 recommended ETFs with potential for reevaluation due to their better-than-expected performance. [Summary of US stock earnings by industry].I want to refer to.)
Is it a significant adjustment or a temporary adjustment?
If we look at the year-to-date performance of NVIDIA shares, this year has been somewhat volatile, with many days of more than 6% decline. For example, there were downturns in mid-April, mid-June, and late July through early August.
If we look at the year-to-date performance of NVIDIA shares, this year has been somewhat volatile, with many days of more than 6% decline. For example, there were downturns in mid-April, mid-June, and late July through early August.
In the short term, most of the past adjustments have been temporary in the first half of the year. On the other hand, as indicated by the orange dotted line on the graph, even if there is a return from a temporary adjustment after mid-June, it has not surpassed the previous high. There seems to be strong selling pressure on the rebound. Therefore, caution may still be needed, at least through September.
From a technical perspective, the lower target level is
Considering the current market environment, supply and demand are expected to be major factors. Traders are likely to focus on Fibonacci retracement levels, with around $105 and then around $94 being the key levels to watch.
Considering the current market environment, supply and demand are expected to be major factors. Traders are likely to focus on Fibonacci retracement levels, with around $105 and then around $94 being the key levels to watch.
Market analyst Julie, September 4th, 2024
Source: Created by moomoo Securities from Bloomberg
Source: Created by moomoo Securities from Bloomberg
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
HONDA N-ONE : What is the difference between honkaku and itchi?