NVIDIA earnings and Broadcom earnings are over!? What happened in the market?
Technical analysis (Rating: 1.18/5)
- It has temporarily broken through the resistance line (nvidia earnings expectations?), but has fallen again. The drop after temporarily breaking through the resistance line is painful. Breaking through the resistance line near 35 is necessary as the recent breakthrough target.
From a fundamental analysis perspective, it is believed to be "① NVIDIA earnings・PCE deflator announcement (8/30) > ② Broadcom earnings・unemployment rate announcement (9/6)." It seems that the only clear fundamental element for a trend reversal in the future is the "FRB policy interest rate", so the downtrend is expected to continue in the medium term. (Even if there are positive fundamental factors regarding the FRB policy interest rate, it is only expected to lead to short-term upward movement.)
・ Accelerating downtrend. However, it is moving at oversold levels, so there is plenty of room for a rebound.
・米半導体大手エヌビディア(NVDA.O), opens new tabは２８日、第３・四半期（８─１０月）の売上高が３２５億ドル（プラスマイナス２％）になると予想した。市場予想（３１７億７０００万ドル）とほぼ一致する水準にとどまり、株価は引け後の時間外取引で６％下落した。
☆Candlestick chart (Rating: 1/5)
☆Candlestick chart (Rating: 1/5)
- Large black candlestick (9/3: after Nvidia's earnings, Labor Day opening) -> Sideways (9/4, 5) -> Large black candlestick (9/6: Broadcom earnings).
-> The direction is still downward, but there is a possibility of a temporary rebound.
☆ Chart pattern (Evaluation: 0.5/5)
- Medium-term downtrend resistance/support lines (during the third quarter) are occurring.
- On August 30th,
it temporarily broke through the resistance line (expecting Nvidia's earnings?).
However, it fell back to the resistance line on September 2nd.
→ The temporary break of the resistance line and the subsequent decline are painful.To achieve the recent breakthrough goal, it is necessary to break through the resistance line near 35. However, the candlestick chart is downward, so it still seems to be in the future.
☆ Dow Theory × Granville Law (Rating: 0.5/5)
- Dow Theory: The upward trend has reversed to a downward trend due to the "Labor Statistics Significant Downward Revision (8/22)". There was no clear reversal signal at "① Nvidia financial results and PCE deflator announcement (8/30)", resulting in a significant decline. Subsequently, there was no clear reversal signal again at "② Broadcom financial results and unemployment rate announcement", resulting in a significant decline.(0.5/5)
- Granville's Law: It seemed to temporarily break the 200-day moving average line (8/30), but it declined again after Nvidia's financial results. The decline continues thereafter.(0.5/5)
→ From fundamental analysis"(1) Nvidia earnings・PCE deflator announcement (8/30) >> (2) Broadcom earnings・unemployment rate announcement (9/6)"It is believed that there is only one fundamental factor, the FRB policy interest rate, that can clearly determine the trend reversal in the future. Therefore, it is expected that the downward trend and lower lows will continue.Even if good fundamental news comes out for the FRB policy interest rate, I think it can only be expected to have a short-term rise.Details will be included in a later post.)。Also, there is an expectation of having some time to exceed the 200-day moving average line in the future.
☆ Moving average line × Volume moving average line (Rating: 1.75/5)
- Moving average line: Death cross of the 5/21 day moving average line. Just before the death cross of the 50/200 day moving average line.(1/5)
- Volume Moving Average: Short-term/medium-term moving averages have a golden cross. However, there is a possibility of selling acceleration as the golden cross occurs with selling volume.(2.5/5)
→ There is room for volume to increase in the downward direction. However, there is also a possibility of buying due to oversold conditions.There is also a possibility of buying due to oversold conditions.
☆ Ichimoku Cloud × DMI (Rating: 0.5/5)
- Ichimoku Cloud: In the process of a bearish twist in the cloud, a negative twist will occur slightly ahead.(0.5/5)
DMI: In a downtrend, the MDI/ADX dead cross is on the verge of widening. It seems that the future dead cross will also take some time.(0.5/5)
→ Acceleration of the downtrend.It seems that the timing for a trend reversal has become more distant than in mid-August.
☆BOLL×RSI×MACD (Rating: 2.83/5)
BOLL: Touched -1σ → -2σ. Expansion seems to be starting.(1/5)
- RSI: It has been below 40 from September 2nd to 6th, maintaining an oversold level.(4/5)
- MACD: A death cross has occurred. However, since it is occurring in the negative range, there is a possibility of deception.(Rating: 3.5/5)
→ There is room for a rebound as it has been trading in oversold territory.However, it is believed that the downward momentum will continue.
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ぴるさん OP : This time, the Dow is theoretically safe because it did not update its low with this decline, but it will probably update, won't it?
あきんちょ : It's very informative! I will take it as a reference.
ラッキーミー : Thank you for the analysis. I will refer to it.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")