“NVIDIA Special Feature” The awesomeness shown in “GTC 2024,” stock price reactions, and related stocks
NVIDIA: Will business continue to expand by maintaining a dominant position
Products equipped with Blackwell, starting with the “B200”It is scheduled to be offered to tech giants later this year. Therefore,Contributions to business results will begin in 2025It will be (2026/1 fiscal year, NVIDIA will be settled in January).Based on the fact that major tech companies continue to invest in AI, it is expected that NVIDIA's business performance will continue to expand.
Products equipped with Blackwell, starting with the “B200”It is scheduled to be offered to tech giants later this year. Therefore,Contributions to business results will begin in 2025It will be (2026/1 fiscal year, NVIDIA will be settled in January).Based on the fact that major tech companies continue to invest in AI, it is expected that NVIDIA's business performance will continue to expand.
What is the stock priceDue to a sharp riseProfit determination Fluctuations are also expected due to selling pressure, year-end position adjustments, and movements looking at the $1,000 markbutBased on the fact that the valuation is at the past average level (not overpriced), the time of adjustment would be an opportunity to buy specials.
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$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$CEO Jensen Huang ofis the keynote speech for “GTC 2024” on March 18, in front of an audience of over 10,000 peopleTalk passionately about generative AI、Showcasing the world's strongest AI semiconductorI did it. On that day, NVIDIA's stock price remained 0.7% higher.
NVIDIA's annual event “GTC” (GPU Technology Conference) is now the world's largest conference on AI and semiconductors.Over the past 5 years, NVIDIA's stock price has risen 5.7% on average during the “GTC” periodI did it.2024In “GTC” (3/18 to 3/21)4.1% increaseIt became. Even though the “world's most powerful chip” was announced, the rate of increase was below the past 5-year average.
The main reasons are thought to be the following three.
1) “Buy with rumors and sell with facts”
2) Profit-determining selling pressure due to a sharp rise from the beginning of the year
3) Looking at the FOMC, the whole market was in a wait-and-see mood
1) “Buy with rumors and sell with facts”
2) Profit-determining selling pressure due to a sharp rise from the beginning of the year
3) Looking at the FOMC, the whole market was in a wait-and-see mood
★ “Buy with rumors and sell with facts”
Before “GTC 2024” was held, it had already been reported in the market that NVIDIA would show off next-generation semiconductors for AI. Therefore, there is a possibility that some investors have taken the investment action of “buying with rumors and selling with facts.”
Before “GTC 2024” was held, it had already been reported in the market that NVIDIA would show off next-generation semiconductors for AI. Therefore, there is a possibility that some investors have taken the investment action of “buying with rumors and selling with facts.”
★ Profit-determining selling pressure due to a sharp rise from the beginning of the year
NVIDIA shares rose 239% in 2023, benefiting from the AI boom, and continued to rise even after entering 2024. Stock prices had risen 80% since the beginning of the year until the trading day (3/15) before the “GTC” was held. There was a sense of momentum and elation that was slightly too strong, and there were voices predicting speed adjustments.
NVIDIA shares rose 239% in 2023, benefiting from the AI boom, and continued to rise even after entering 2024. Stock prices had risen 80% since the beginning of the year until the trading day (3/15) before the “GTC” was held. There was a sense of momentum and elation that was slightly too strong, and there were voices predicting speed adjustments.
★ Looking at the FOMC, the whole market was in a wait-and-see mood
Last week, in addition to NVIDIA's “GTC,”More important events for the stock marketIt was there. From 3/19 to 3/20FOMC(US Federal Open Market Committee decides US monetary policy policy). The expected number of interest rate cuts for the end of the year, which is attracting attention in the market, has already been revised from 6 at the beginning of the year to 3, but ahead of the FOMC announcement, there was a strong wait-and-see mood in the market. Note,The current FOMC left unchanged the previous forecast of 3 interest rate cuts in 2024. So to speakSuccessfully passed the eventIt became.
Last week, in addition to NVIDIA's “GTC,”More important events for the stock marketIt was there. From 3/19 to 3/20FOMC(US Federal Open Market Committee decides US monetary policy policy). The expected number of interest rate cuts for the end of the year, which is attracting attention in the market, has already been revised from 6 at the beginning of the year to 3, but ahead of the FOMC announcement, there was a strong wait-and-see mood in the market. Note,The current FOMC left unchanged the previous forecast of 3 interest rate cuts in 2024. So to speakSuccessfully passed the eventIt became.
★ NVIDIA shares rose after “GTC 2024,” and I like the increase in target stock prices
NVIDIA shares rose 4% during the “GTC” period, but the day after the “GTC” ended (3/22), they rose 3%.I like the drastic increase in target stock prices by analystsI did it. After “GTC,” several analysts revised NVIDIA's target stock price upward from the conventional 800 dollar range to the 1,000 dollar range.
NVIDIA shares rose 4% during the “GTC” period, but the day after the “GTC” ended (3/22), they rose 3%.I like the drastic increase in target stock prices by analystsI did it. After “GTC,” several analysts revised NVIDIA's target stock price upward from the conventional 800 dollar range to the 1,000 dollar range.
NVIDIA's as of 3/27 and before “GTC 2024”Target CorporationIf you compare (Bloomberg tally, same as below),It was raised by about 6%. The reason NVIDIA's target stock price was raised drastically in the past was when they announced results that greatly exceeded expectations. Although the rate of increase this time is slightly lower compared to that time,If you think about it in terms of the rate of increase as a single event without financial results, it's reasonably highYou could also say that.
NVIDIA is “GTC 2024,”“Blackwell architecture” is a new class of AI superchips, andAnnounced the “B200” and “GB200” equipped with BlackwellI did it.
★ AI semiconductor industry competition chart before “Blackwell”
In the AI semiconductor market,NVIDIA is 80% or more, followed by $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$It is said that it has a market share of a few percent. In other words,Composition of NVIDIA's top 1 and following AMDIt has become. Currently,The world's most high-performance AI semiconductoris the “H100,” the main product based on NVIDIA's Hopper architecture.“H100” released in 2022Mass production began a few weeks before the end of 2022, when the generative AI “ChatGPT” gained explosive popularity.
In the AI semiconductor market,NVIDIA is 80% or more, followed by $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$It is said that it has a market share of a few percent. In other words,Composition of NVIDIA's top 1 and following AMDIt has become. Currently,The world's most high-performance AI semiconductoris the “H100,” the main product based on NVIDIA's Hopper architecture.“H100” released in 2022Mass production began a few weeks before the end of 2022, when the generative AI “ChatGPT” gained explosive popularity.
Microsoft in January 2023“ChatGPT”It was announced that 10 billion dollars would be invested in OpenAI, which developed it, and even more attention was drawn to generative AI. Since then, Microsoft has taken the leadTech giants have increased capital investment for AI infrastructure. With that benefitDemand for the “H100” is strong. “NVIDIA semiconductors are harder to obtain than narcotics” $Tesla (TSLA.US)$So much so that CEO Elon Musk made a statement.
★ Behind the strong performance of the “H100”, there are also competition concerns in part
The “H100” is difficult to obtain, and it is also expensive. Therefore, tech giants, which are the main customers of the “H100,” were also looking for products other than NVIDIA.Competitor AMDIn December 2023New product “MI300” for AI announcedWhen it does, for customers who adopt “MI300” $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ Ya $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ 、 $Meta Platforms (META.US)$It was revealed that it would be included. At that time, there were also voices that worried that there was a possibility that NVIDIA might drop its market share somewhat in the future due to AMD's catch-up.
The “H100” is difficult to obtain, and it is also expensive. Therefore, tech giants, which are the main customers of the “H100,” were also looking for products other than NVIDIA.Competitor AMDIn December 2023New product “MI300” for AI announcedWhen it does, for customers who adopt “MI300” $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ Ya $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ 、 $Meta Platforms (META.US)$It was revealed that it would be included. At that time, there were also voices that worried that there was a possibility that NVIDIA might drop its market share somewhat in the future due to AMD's catch-up.
At the financial results presentation in February this yearNVIDIA has proven that its dominant position has not changed due to performanceI did it. Sales in the data center division (division where sales of AI semiconductors are recorded) for the fiscal year ending 2023/11 to 2024/1 were 5 times higher than the same period last year, exceeding market expectations. The company's AI semiconductor products continued to perform well. This time'sWith “GTC 2024”NVIDIAIt showed an attitude of not allowing competitors to follow even more clearly。
★ Blackwell: “The most powerful chip in the world”
BlackwellAbout NVIDIA in the 3/18 release materials”The most powerful chip in the world” was introduced. At the same time, he said, “Generative AI is the technology that defines the present day.Blackwell is the engine powering this new industrial revolutionThat's it,” she explained.
BlackwellAbout NVIDIA in the 3/18 release materials”The most powerful chip in the world” was introduced. At the same time, he said, “Generative AI is the technology that defines the present day.Blackwell is the engine powering this new industrial revolutionThat's it,” she explained.
★ “B200” and “GB200” equipped with Blackwell
“B200”is a GPU (image processing device) equipped with two silicon dies in one package, and it is said that it will be a successor to the current main product “H100.” The most powerful chip in the worldEquipped with Blackwell、Its performance is even more enhanced than the “H100”It was done.
“B200”is a GPU (image processing device) equipped with two silicon dies in one package, and it is said that it will be a successor to the current main product “H100.” The most powerful chip in the worldEquipped with Blackwell、Its performance is even more enhanced than the “H100”It was done.
“GB200”As a huge super chip, it is equipped with a CPU (central processing unit) in addition to Blackwell's GPU. NVIDIA is the release material, and “GB200”Compared to the “H100,” the performance is improved by 30 times for LLM (large language model) inference, 4 times for LLM training, and the power efficiency is 25 times higherI explained that it would happen.
★ Blackwell products will be available starting later this year
According to NVIDIA's release materials,Products equipped with Blackwell will be available later this yearthat's it. A spokesman for Meta, which is an AI semiconductor and is one of NVIDIA's main customers, commented on 3/19 that NVIDIA's latest semiconductor “B200” will be received later this year (Reuters).
According to NVIDIA's release materials,Products equipped with Blackwell will be available later this yearthat's it. A spokesman for Meta, which is an AI semiconductor and is one of NVIDIA's main customers, commented on 3/19 that NVIDIA's latest semiconductor “B200” will be received later this year (Reuters).
★ Blackwell product customers, etc.
NVIDIA $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ AWS, which is under the umbrella $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ Google Cloud, which is under the umbrella $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Microsoft Azure, $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ It was introduced that the four major cloud service providers of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure will be the first cloud service providers to provide instances using Blackwell.
NVIDIA $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ AWS, which is under the umbrella $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ Google Cloud, which is under the umbrella $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Microsoft Azure, $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ It was introduced that the four major cloud service providers of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure will be the first cloud service providers to provide instances using Blackwell.
simultaneously $Cisco (CSCO.US)$ 、 $Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$ 、 $Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE.US)$ , Lenovo, $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$It is said that Aivres, ASRock Rack, ASUS, Eveden, Foxconn, GIGABYTE, Inventec, Pegatron, QCT, Wistron, Wiwynn, and ZT Systems plan to provide a wide range of servers based on Blackwell products.
Furthermore, it is a world leader in engineering simulation $Ansys (ANSS.US)$ 、 $Cadence Design Systems (CDNS.US)$ 、 $Synopsys (SNPS.US)$It is said that a network of software manufacturers such as these will use Blackwell-based processors to speed up software for the design and simulation of electrical, mechanical, and manufacturing systems and components.
Products equipped with Blackwell, starting with the “B200”It is scheduled to be offered to tech giants later this year. Therefore,Contributions to business results will begin in 2025It will be (2026/1 fiscal year, NVIDIA will be settled in January).Based on the fact that major tech companies continue to invest in AI, it is expected that NVIDIA's business performance will continue to expand.
What is the stock priceDue to a sharp riseProfit determination Fluctuations are also expected due to selling pressure, year-end position adjustments, and movements looking at the $1,000 markbutBased on the fact that the valuation is at the past average level (not overpriced), the time of adjustment would be an opportunity to buy specials.
Created March 27, 2024 Market Analyst Amelia
Source: Created by Moomoo Securities using company materials, Bloomberg, and various materials
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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