NVIDIA surged 17% in 4 days, and are US high-tech stocks in explosive mode again?

moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Aug 14, 2024 16:05

The US July Producer Price Index (PPI) was slightly weaker than expected, and the theory of “US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts” once again stimulated investment sentiment in the US stock market. A major semiconductor company $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It surged 6.53% on 8/13.The company's stock price has risen more than 17% in the past 4 business days, and the total market value has increased by approximately 424 billion dollars.

What is NVIDIA's stock price at the closing price on the 13thIt is still about 17% below the all-time high that was set on 6/20. In June, NVIDIA surpassed Microsoft in total market value to rise to the top US company for the first time.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, $Rydex Exchange Traded Fd Trust Guggenheim S&P 500 Top 50 Etf (XLG.US)$On Monday, a net fund inflow of 0.2 billion 10 million dollars was recorded, making it the largest daily inflow of funds in the fund's nearly 20-year history. XLG tracks the top 50 stocks in the S&P 500 index constituent stocks. Investors' concentration on XLG highlights strong trust in large growth stocks, mainly high-tech stocks.
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NVIDIA surged 17% in 4 days, and are US high-tech stocks in explosive mode again?

Will US tech stocks maintain their momentum? Pay attention to tonight's July CPI
The US July PPI slowed more than expected, and service prices fell for the first time this year. The possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September has further increased. Ian Lingen, head of US interest rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said there was nothing in Tuesday's data to suggest that the Fed would hesitate to cut interest rates in September. In other words, the correlation between Wednesday's consumer price index and immediate policy expectations is very high.

According to Bloomberg, the consumer price index (CPI) for July, which is scheduled to be announced on the 14th, and the core CPI excluding food and energy are both expected to rise by about 0.2% from the previous month.
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Michael Hartnett of Bank of America (BofA) said in the report, “Core optimism about soft landings and large US growth stocks has not changed. However, investors only think it is necessary for the Fed to cut interest rates more drastically in order to avoid a recession.”

State Street's Kayla Seder said, “Tech stocks are still attractive. Even in terms of profit margins, cash flow, ROE, etc., high-tech stocks are one of the best sectors. It is very wise to buy blue-chip stocks at low prices when the future of the economy is uncertain,” he pointed out.

Has the crash in US semiconductor-related stocks gone too far?
If you look at the rate of increase,SOX Index (Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Index)This time, there was a rebound of about 12%, and the NASDAQ index only rebounded 6% during the same period. Major financial institutions such as Bank of America (BofA) and UBS continued to be bullish on NVIDIA, and stated that the recent drop in semiconductor-related stocks has gone too far.

BofA analyst Vivek Aliya said NVIDIA is one of the most bullish “backlash” options, and he predicts that the semiconductor industry will recover by the end of 2024.

The analyst indicated in the report that “there is no change in the forecast that semiconductor-related stocks may recover in the fourth quarter.” The same person $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$with $KLA Corp (KLAC.US)$It was also pointed out that there is a possibility that it will benefit from the recovery of the semiconductor industry.

Vivek Aliya says there is a possibility that volatility will continue until NVIDIA announces the next financial results on 8/28. Also, it is pointed out that although the current upward trend in semiconductor stocks has continued for only 4 quarters, past upward trends have usually continued for close to 10 quarters.

NVIDIA has recently come under pressure due to concerns over sales of the company's “Blackwell” chips. In response to this, Oppenheimer Fund, a major asset management company, pointed out in a report for customers that “market share will not be lost due to slight delays” regarding the expected delay in mass production of the semiconductor “Blackwell” for next-generation AI. “NVIDIA's competitive advantage in the market is alive and well,” NVIDIA's investment decision “outperform” was maintained, and the target stock price was set at 150 dollars.
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On the other hand, $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$、 $Amazon (AMZN.US)$、 $Meta Platforms (META.US)$Both indicate a policy to continue investing billions of dollars in AI infrastructure.

However, Goldman Sachs pointed out that NVIDIA financial results scheduled to be announced in August are likely to have a big impact on AI as a whole, and if the company's financial results exceed expectations, there is a possibility that overall sentiment will be boosted, and if they fall below expectations, there is a possibility that market uncertainty will worsen.

Source: Bloomberg, MINKABU, Dow Jones, Welshadvisor
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
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