NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 120.150 TSLA
Tesla
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Palantir
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Super Micro Computer
-- 42.950 AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
-- 99.510 
Nvidia: Why am I betting on a decline?
In the first quarter of the 25th year of nvidia, profits exceeded financial estimates, but the stock price showed a sluggish response due to investor fatigue, making it a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
NVDA's revenue nearly doubled year-on-year due to strong demand for datacenter GPUs, and profits increased at a faster pace than revenue.
The release of datacenter GPUs themed around Blackwell scheduled for the 4th quarter is expected to be a significant driver for Nvidia's revenue and profit growth in 2025.
Although the growth of revenue has slightly slowed down, supported by strong demand for AI-compatible GPUs and high gross profit margin, the company's long-term outlook remains robust.
NVDA's revenue nearly doubled year-on-year due to strong demand for datacenter GPUs, and profits increased at a faster pace than revenue.
The release of datacenter GPUs themed around Blackwell scheduled for the 4th quarter is expected to be a significant driver for Nvidia's revenue and profit growth in 2025.
Although the growth of revenue has slightly slowed down, supported by strong demand for AI-compatible GPUs and high gross profit margin, the company's long-term outlook remains robust.
Nvidia inc (NASDAQ: NVDA )Profit for Nvidia Inc (nasdaq: ") surpassed investor expectations in terms of revenue and profit, but the market did not react as positively to the company's earnings as before. In my opinion, this may indicate short-term fatigue regarding Nvidia's performance, presenting an opportunity for investors to double down.
Nvidia's revenue nearly doubled year-over-year in the previous quarter, maintaining a significant expansion of profits as the pioneer of GPUs.
Nvidia's Blackwell-themed datacenter GPUs are scheduled to be released in the 4th quarter, potentially boosting the company's future revenue and acting as the long-awaited catalyst for Nvidia's stock price.
I believe the recent stock price decline presents a buying opportunity for long-term investors, and with the upcoming release of Blackwell's revenue data, investors are likely to reignite their affection for Nvidia.
My performance history
My bullish view on NvidiaVigorous revenue growth, high gross profit margin, and the potential of upscaling GPUs (the idea that in future datacenters, significantly more GPUs (likely millions) will be included in each cluster) are supported by numerous factors. This will serve as a catalyst for the revenue and profit growth of the company recognized as a pioneer in GPUs.
Although Nvidia's business is slightly decelerating, due to the expected significant increase in revenue from Blackwell, this stock is rated as a 'buy'.
Nvidia's Q1 25 111: Significant profit increase, upcoming catalyst with Blackwell release
The key driver behind Nvidia's excellent performance remains the datacenter industry, where as soon as GPUs become available, they are snatched away from Nvidia.
The advancement of the AI revolution is supported by NVIDIA's investment of billions of dollars into large-scale language models that require GPUs, serving as the driving force behind the sustained growth of the GPU company. In Q1 2025, Nvidia's revenue surged to $35.1 billion, a 94% year-on-year increase, marking a quarter with record-breaking results for the company.
The rapid revenue growth is mainly attributed to Nvidia's GPUs delivered to datacenters. This sector recorded an astonishing $30.8 billion revenue in Q1 2025, representing 88% of the total and a remarkable 112% increase year-on-year, demonstrating the fastest growth among Nvidia's divisions. While the revenue in the previous quarter increased by 122%, datacenter revenue in Q2 2025 saw a 154% increase compared to the previous year.
Unfortunately, nvidia's revenue has been slightly decelerating, which may be one of the reasons why investors are not reacting as actively as in the previous quarter.
Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that nvidia's profits are growing at a faster pace than its revenue. The company's total revenue increased by 94% in Q1 of 25, with earnings per share increasing by 111% year-on-year.
Nvidia's revenue nearly doubled year-over-year in the previous quarter, maintaining a significant expansion of profits as the pioneer of GPUs.
Nvidia's Blackwell-themed datacenter GPUs are scheduled to be released in the 4th quarter, potentially boosting the company's future revenue and acting as the long-awaited catalyst for Nvidia's stock price.
I believe the recent stock price decline presents a buying opportunity for long-term investors, and with the upcoming release of Blackwell's revenue data, investors are likely to reignite their affection for Nvidia.
My performance history
My bullish view on NvidiaVigorous revenue growth, high gross profit margin, and the potential of upscaling GPUs (the idea that in future datacenters, significantly more GPUs (likely millions) will be included in each cluster) are supported by numerous factors. This will serve as a catalyst for the revenue and profit growth of the company recognized as a pioneer in GPUs.
Although Nvidia's business is slightly decelerating, due to the expected significant increase in revenue from Blackwell, this stock is rated as a 'buy'.
Nvidia's Q1 25 111: Significant profit increase, upcoming catalyst with Blackwell release
The key driver behind Nvidia's excellent performance remains the datacenter industry, where as soon as GPUs become available, they are snatched away from Nvidia.
The advancement of the AI revolution is supported by NVIDIA's investment of billions of dollars into large-scale language models that require GPUs, serving as the driving force behind the sustained growth of the GPU company. In Q1 2025, Nvidia's revenue surged to $35.1 billion, a 94% year-on-year increase, marking a quarter with record-breaking results for the company.
The rapid revenue growth is mainly attributed to Nvidia's GPUs delivered to datacenters. This sector recorded an astonishing $30.8 billion revenue in Q1 2025, representing 88% of the total and a remarkable 112% increase year-on-year, demonstrating the fastest growth among Nvidia's divisions. While the revenue in the previous quarter increased by 122%, datacenter revenue in Q2 2025 saw a 154% increase compared to the previous year.
Unfortunately, nvidia's revenue has been slightly decelerating, which may be one of the reasons why investors are not reacting as actively as in the previous quarter.
Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that nvidia's profits are growing at a faster pace than its revenue. The company's total revenue increased by 94% in Q1 of 25, with earnings per share increasing by 111% year-on-year.
Nvidia's GAAP-based gross profit margin is currently 75%, only slightly lower by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The margin is an important indicator of Nvidia's pricing strength, and the increase in shipments of the Blackwell GB200 AI server is expected to have a positive impact on Nvidia's profit margins in 2025.
GPU acceleration computing clearly provides Nvidia with a significant opportunity for revenue expansion, and although GPU companies are experiencing some deceleration in revenue growth, I am generally bullish on the potential for Nvidia's Blackwell chip sales.
The GPU market in US data centers is expanding, and this growth is both sustainable and accelerating with the introduction of Nvidia's Blackwell chip. Blackwell is scheduled to be shipped in the 4th calendar quarter, with rapid growth in sales and shipments expected in the first calendar quarter of 2025.
I expect Nvidia to distribute 2 million Blackwell chips in 2025 (about 0.5 million chips per quarter) and bring in billions of dollars in revenue growth.
Earlier this year, the company's CEO mentioned that the chip will be sold for $30,000 to $40,000 per unit for data center use.This corresponds to a sales increase of $600 to $80 billion, and next year Mr. Blackwell alone will have that amount deposited into Nvidia's bank account. However, some of these sales are replacing the existing sales of Nvidia's main GPU product, the H100.
Nevertheless, Nvidia is expected to see a significant increase in sales and profits by 2025. Despite investors being well aware of this, the company's stock price shows a sluggish response to Nvidia's earnings, creating a buying opportunity.
Situation of the technical chart
Nvidia's stock price has hardly reacted to the company's first quarter 2025 earnings from a week ago. This may indicate increased investor fatigue towards semiconductor companies. Technically speaking, Nvidia's stock price is in a relatively neutral range, with a relative strength index showing a value of 43.5, indicating that NVDA is neither overbought nor oversold.
Recently, NVDA has fallen below both the 20-day moving average and the 50-day moving average trend lines, putting some bearish pressure on the stock price in the short term. Therefore, it would not be surprising if Nvidia fell towards 111.73, where the current 200-day moving average line is located. However, this level should provide significant support, considering doubling down at this price level.
GPU acceleration computing clearly provides Nvidia with a significant opportunity for revenue expansion, and although GPU companies are experiencing some deceleration in revenue growth, I am generally bullish on the potential for Nvidia's Blackwell chip sales.
The GPU market in US data centers is expanding, and this growth is both sustainable and accelerating with the introduction of Nvidia's Blackwell chip. Blackwell is scheduled to be shipped in the 4th calendar quarter, with rapid growth in sales and shipments expected in the first calendar quarter of 2025.
I expect Nvidia to distribute 2 million Blackwell chips in 2025 (about 0.5 million chips per quarter) and bring in billions of dollars in revenue growth.
Earlier this year, the company's CEO mentioned that the chip will be sold for $30,000 to $40,000 per unit for data center use.This corresponds to a sales increase of $600 to $80 billion, and next year Mr. Blackwell alone will have that amount deposited into Nvidia's bank account. However, some of these sales are replacing the existing sales of Nvidia's main GPU product, the H100.
Nevertheless, Nvidia is expected to see a significant increase in sales and profits by 2025. Despite investors being well aware of this, the company's stock price shows a sluggish response to Nvidia's earnings, creating a buying opportunity.
Situation of the technical chart
Nvidia's stock price has hardly reacted to the company's first quarter 2025 earnings from a week ago. This may indicate increased investor fatigue towards semiconductor companies. Technically speaking, Nvidia's stock price is in a relatively neutral range, with a relative strength index showing a value of 43.5, indicating that NVDA is neither overbought nor oversold.
Recently, NVDA has fallen below both the 20-day moving average and the 50-day moving average trend lines, putting some bearish pressure on the stock price in the short term. Therefore, it would not be surprising if Nvidia fell towards 111.73, where the current 200-day moving average line is located. However, this level should provide significant support, considering doubling down at this price level.
How cheap is Nvidia?
The market is predicting Nvidia's earnings per share for 2024 at $2.95, reflecting a profit growth of 127% year-on-year. In terms of revenue, the market predicts $129.1 billion, reflecting revenue growth of 112% year-on-year, therefore it is forecasted that Nvidia will continue to grow profits at a faster pace than revenue.
With Nvidia's stock currently trading at $136, the valuation suggests a price-to-earnings ratio of 46 times for 2024. As profits are expected to increase by 50% next year, the key profit multiplier for 2025 will decrease to 31 times.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ( AMD ) is trading at a P/E ratio of 41 times (2024) and 27 times (2025), explaining why AMD is a bargain at the current price.I explained earlier why Nvidia, with a P/E ratio of 31 times, is not necessarily cheap here, but it is rarely a really good deal for this semiconductor company.
Nvidia's stock is significantly more expensive than Advanced Micro Devices, but AMD does not have the Blackwell chip, which Nvidia claims is already sold out.
The market is predicting Nvidia's earnings per share for 2024 at $2.95, reflecting a profit growth of 127% year-on-year. In terms of revenue, the market predicts $129.1 billion, reflecting revenue growth of 112% year-on-year, therefore it is forecasted that Nvidia will continue to grow profits at a faster pace than revenue.
With Nvidia's stock currently trading at $136, the valuation suggests a price-to-earnings ratio of 46 times for 2024. As profits are expected to increase by 50% next year, the key profit multiplier for 2025 will decrease to 31 times.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ( AMD ) is trading at a P/E ratio of 41 times (2024) and 27 times (2025), explaining why AMD is a bargain at the current price.I explained earlier why Nvidia, with a P/E ratio of 31 times, is not necessarily cheap here, but it is rarely a really good deal for this semiconductor company.
Nvidia's stock is significantly more expensive than Advanced Micro Devices, but AMD does not have the Blackwell chip, which Nvidia claims is already sold out.
Reasons why the investment theory may be wrong
This investment theory is largely based on the assumption that the demand for GPUs will remain very high in the future, and companies will continue to allocate a large part of their capital budget to purchasing AI-capable GPUs.
If these companies, such as microsoft and google, the world's leading technology companies, fail to achieve appropriate roi for investments, there may be a decrease in spending on GPUs. Such a decrease could potentially cause significant damage to Nvidia's profit margins and evaluations.
My conclusion
Nvidia's revenue for the first quarter of 25 years was strong in various aspects, but investors seem to show some fatigue, and despite the strong performance, interest in this semiconductor company is waning.
Nvidia has been performing well in terms of revenue, gross profit, and earnings. The earnings reports highlighted the company's progress in all aspects, especially in the datacenter. I was particularly impressed by Nvidia's profit growth outpacing revenue growth. Currently, Nvidia is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, which may be a reason for the stock price decline after the earnings reports.
Nevertheless, Nvidia's long-term trajectory is very favorable for the company, especially as the Blackwell GB200 AI server is expected to be shipped in the fourth quarter, setting the stage for revenue and profit growth in 2025. Ultimately, I believe Nvidia will become a company that the market will want to reward.
This investment theory is largely based on the assumption that the demand for GPUs will remain very high in the future, and companies will continue to allocate a large part of their capital budget to purchasing AI-capable GPUs.
If these companies, such as microsoft and google, the world's leading technology companies, fail to achieve appropriate roi for investments, there may be a decrease in spending on GPUs. Such a decrease could potentially cause significant damage to Nvidia's profit margins and evaluations.
My conclusion
Nvidia's revenue for the first quarter of 25 years was strong in various aspects, but investors seem to show some fatigue, and despite the strong performance, interest in this semiconductor company is waning.
Nvidia has been performing well in terms of revenue, gross profit, and earnings. The earnings reports highlighted the company's progress in all aspects, especially in the datacenter. I was particularly impressed by Nvidia's profit growth outpacing revenue growth. Currently, Nvidia is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, which may be a reason for the stock price decline after the earnings reports.
Nevertheless, Nvidia's long-term trajectory is very favorable for the company, especially as the Blackwell GB200 AI server is expected to be shipped in the fourth quarter, setting the stage for revenue and profit growth in 2025. Ultimately, I believe Nvidia will become a company that the market will want to reward.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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182396690 : It is gonna be increase stock of NVDA day by day I pretty believe it for real. Your informations are very crucial and make senses for sure. Thank you very much
182396690 : I wanna ask you that it is going to be increase Japanese yen or decrease Japan yen in the future. Right now aground 150 Japanese yen
Kimihiko OP 182396690 : 140円〜160円くらいでは？
182396690 : In such case that you are maintain NVDA stock or sell it stock against weakly Japanese yen？
Tell me your great strategy for me
Kimihiko OP 182396690 : Don't worry about the exchange rate,
wouldn't it be better to continue managing it as an asset?
182396690 : That make sense for sure！