$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ I wonder how Warren Buffett ...
Warren Buffett has been building a war chest of cash All Summer Long he's been reducing Bank of America he's been reducing Apple and he built up cash reserves and excess of $325 billion dollars.
it's the largest amount of cash of any company in the world it's in fact larger than the amount of cash that the Federal reserve holds, by a significant percentage.
Warren Buffett was betting on a Harris victory. and he bet that the market was going to sell off severely as a result. next he would be able to go in and scoop up dirt cheap companies that have sold off as a result of four more years of hell on Earth under the progressive socialist communist regime in office.
one of buffett's largest holdings is Occidental petroleum. he accumulates positions over time based off of what he sees as long-term outlooks in a sector and a company. I have very little doubt that he believed under the continuous agenda of the left. oil prices would continuously rise through 80 90 over 100 as a result of constraints being placed on us drilling manufacturing.
well what is Buffett going to do now? Trump made a commitment from day one drill baby drill. and everyone should understand by now what companies do terrible when the price of their in commodity goes down and that's everybody in the oil industry. you can see what has happened to oxy over the past couple of months and this is not even related to Trump this is related to reduction in demand slower growth from China. come January 20th when Trump is back in office and we are no longer buying from Venezuela because we know all these big cargo vessels get powered by solar and wind when they transport all that oil in the ocean don't we.. oil prices ultimately will fall by 50% from current levels Trump guaranteed it first year.. oxy's profits along with everybody else's are going to collapse. so the question is what is Buffett going to do? he must know this he must understand this so why continuously hold a company or a group of companies that are going to be adversely impacted for at least 4 years?
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72398975 : tariff on oil imports might benefit oxy
10baggerbamm OP 72398975 : it's not going to benefit any oil company just think for a second remove yourself from this industry of oil.
let's look at gold gold mining companies know their costs the equipment the land as saying refinement the only X Factor they don't know is what they will sell it for in the future because the price is variable and what happened to all of the gold mining stocks when the price of gold went from $1,850 to $2,000 to 2100 to 2200 all the way up to 2800? their stock prices went through the roof because their n commodity profit sword meanwhile the costs are basically fixed.
what would happen to gold mining stocks if the price of gold went to $1,500 an ounce over the next year? the stocks would fall why because they're expenses relative to what they sell the commodity for result in significantly lower profits and or losses. and this is exactly the same within the oil industry and they all get put in the same Venn diagram there's 100% correlation to their profits relative to the commodity price which is oil which is traded on the commodity exchange in the future's Market.
if you go back during Obama administration when oil was 95 100 and 105 and you look at the price of these stocks as a basket they were through the roof because all you heard about was peak oil that terminology was thrown around during the Obama administration on TV as a scam to get people to adopt alternative energy sources solar and wind the beginning of their climate change hoax their money grab. good morning under Trump before covid mind you when oil went negative $23 a barrel but leading up to that oil stocks were for shit because oil was in the low 40s and high 30s a barrel and they were losing money. so now we're at call it 68 to $72 when oil prices go down to the low 40s there's 100% correlation they're going to lose money again and their stock prices fall because Wall Street rewards on higher profits not lower.
72398975 10baggerbamm OP : I hear you so you are bearish on oil then , but the price of oil is unpredictable same thing as gold or any other commodity. I am not so sure the price of oil will drop to 40s . remember dollars are peg to oil , this is a huge incentive to keep oil prices stable, unless you want to see capital out flow from the U.S.. then all stocks wouldn't fair well as the result of lower dollar price index.
10baggerbamm OP 72398975 : the US is a net importer we buy oil from other countries we don't export shit under Trump we were not buying from anybody and to give you an idea of what Trump's doing he picked up the telephone a week and a half ago and he told other leaders you will be buying our natural gas look what happened to the price of natural gas on one phone call look at the trend prior to the phone call for years and look what one phone call did to natural gas Trump is going to make the price of oil fall precipitously why he said so he says mark my words I guarantee you the first year oil will be down 50% you can take that to the bank
72398975 10baggerbamm OP : well. I am not sure now lol , but I thought U.S. is not a net importer of oil ..
10baggerbamm OP 72398975 : the US under Biden we import oil in from Venezuela but we don't sell oil to Venezuela we don't sell oil to other countries we are buying from OPEC. Trump we were energy independent we didn't buy from anybody no one and Trump as part of his negotiating tactics once he gets in office because he's not going to say this now but once he gets into office he's going to tell other leaders around the world oh and by the way you will be buying our oil or we will impose sanctions on you and we will impose additional tariffs on you. and he will say you will be trading in petrodollars us back dollars no other currency mark my words he will say this to other leaders around the world and it will happen
72398975 10baggerbamm OP : if the oil price is going down, the U.S. oil industry will need to be subsidized more ,which means more taxes cuts for the oil companies. we will see what OPEC+ will say in a few days. I still think oil will go up in short term
10baggerbamm OP 72398975 : the US will be independent of OPEC that's what you don't understand under Trump he didn't give a shit what OPEC was doing because we were pumping oil at record rates and oil prices were cheaper to produce in the United States it was cleaner than anybody else in the world so forget OPEC forget anybody else in UAE Saudi they're irrelevant the US has more reserves in the United States than Saudi Arabia by an enormous amount and under Trump the world changes significantly because we're not buying based off of what opex production is going to be if they're cutting back production they are yesterday's news they are irrelevant
10baggerbamm OP 72398975 : furthermore you have a pause of 60 days of peace between Hezbollah and Israel when Trump gets in there will be peace it won't be a ceasefire the war will be over and what that means is the risk of bombing refineries is down which means prices in the Middle East will go down but again it's irrelevant to the US's strategic production of oil under Trump
104152658 : Lol. You forgot tarrifs. It's the reason why OXY is rising today.
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