On an Unsettled Two Months

Interesting that on the day that Ukrainian forces, after getting the okay from lame duck US President Joe Biden, would launch US missiles from territory still under its control at Russian military bases inside of Russian territory, that markets would open on weakness and gain strength from there? Hmmm. Who would have thought that on the same day that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed new doctrine covering Moscow's possible use of nuclear weapons, thus reducing the threshold that must be met and including supportive powers that might be behind third party attacks on Russia, markets would open on weakness and find strength from there? Again, hmmm.

It must be understood that we have now entered a very new and dangerous phase in the now 1,000-day war in eastern Europe. President Biden has shown an increased willingness to back Ukraine more intensely and perhaps more recklessly as his time as Commander in Chief winds down. Incoming US President Trump is well known as a strong proponent of world peace and does have the track record to back that up. The Biden administration is likely trying to put the Ukrainian government in the strongest negotiating position possible by the January 20th US inauguration.

Conversely, there is now a likely new urgency on the Russian side to get itself into a better bargaining position by January 20th. Ukrainian forces, from the Russian perspective, must be expelled from Russian soil by that date, hence the introduction of North Korean forces to the battlefield. Russia would also probably like to fortify and perhaps increase the size of territory currently occupied in eastern Ukraine by January 20th as well as solidify its grip on the disputed Crimean Peninsula.

In short, this is an increased time of danger, not a time to get careless. This is a time where pressure to get something accomplished going into winter is increased and the potential for grave error, in my humble opinion, is now signifcantly increased.

Both Poland and Belarus have now rushed in recent days to fortify their common border with tanks and troops. In addition to that, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned German civilians to prepare for potential war.

A 1,0000-page document titled "Operation Deutschland" has been revealed where reportedly, Germany will serve as a hub and host hundreds of thousands of NATO troops, military equipment, rations and medical supplies.

Additionally, key cables that run between Finland and Germany as well as between Lithuania and Sweden have either been cut or damaged. Pistorius made clear that while not pointing fingers with certainty, that he believed the damaging of these cables was indeed sabotage.