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Powell says no hurry for Fed rate cuts, how will you adjust your investment strategy?
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Operation plan after the general election and during the Chinese concept financial reporting season.

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没有咖啡的吃茶店 joined discussion · Nov 12, 2024 14:40
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$Under the dual stimulus of the settlement of the general election and a 25 basis point rate cut, the market rose 5% this week to reach 21,117 points, which is currently a bit high. Last week's gains were mostly driven by bank stocks, small-cap stocks, semiconductors, and technology stocks, reaching the upper band of the Bollinger band. A short-term correction is expected, with the U.S. CPI and PPI data set to be released next week, which is highly likely to meet expectations and unlikely to have any major surprises. The current prediction is that the current upward trend should continue until the Christmas rally, but with Donald Trump's return to the White House in January next year, there may be a significant correction in January. Therefore, during this period of policy vacuum, U.S. stocks are likely to have a volatile upward trend. In the short term, due to the crazy gains in the U.S. stock market last week, a brief correction is expected this week, presenting a buying opportunity during the pullback.
Regarding Chinese concept stocks, due to the potential policy risks since Trump took office, as well as the introduction of the deleveraging policy last Friday failing to stimulate the stock market as some expected and leading to a 6% decline, many stocks have directly shifted trends to a downward trajectory this week. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$   $JD.com (JD.US)$   $Alibaba (BABA.US)$   $Bilibili (BILI.US)$   $Cisco (CSCO.US)$   $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$   $Sea (SE.US)$With the financial reports coming out intensively, it is currently very likely to start the second round of bullish trend in Chinese concept stocks.
This week's operating plan (personal opinion only, not investment advice, welcome to discuss)
1. Continue to hold at a low position $Alibaba (BABA.US)$   $Bilibili (BILI.US)$ Seize the opportunity to increase holdings to bet on the rebound trend of Chinese concept stocks, but do not rule out the possibility of further overselling, against the backdrop of stimulating consumption. $JD.com (JD.US)$   $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ Currently, you can gradually build positions; In addition $UP Fintech (TIGR.US)$   $Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU.US)$ you can observe the timing to start building positions.
2.   $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY.US)$ As an arbitrage target, there has been little fluctuation recently, so it can be left for a period of time.
3.   $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$There is no substantial bullish news, significant selling pressure, staying on the sidelines with empty positions; will later use consumer stocks. $Coca-Cola (KO.US)$   $McDonald's (MCD.US)$   $Starbucks (SBUX.US)$To replace OXY as a low-volatility arbitrage tool
Regarding semiconductors; the Biden administration will be providing semiconductor subsidies soon, short-term for quick trading or observation. $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares ETF (SOXS.US)$ Trend; still bullish in the long term. $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ , wait for a slight pullback below 35 next week to buy and hold at a low position, target price 39, stop loss 32.5, risk-reward ratio around 1:2, positions should not be too heavy. As the engine of the US stock market in recent years, AI has not yet entered a large-scale bubble period, so continuous increase is the inevitable choice, missed out last week. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$   $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ for the rise.
5. Some media stocks during the election period $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$In the absence of any significant bullish news, it should follow the downtrend channel, but it would be best to avoid these speculative stocks. Traditional media company NXST has already entered a downtrend channel, with a small short position recommended at a target price of 160.
6. Rate cuts and easing are bullish for small cap technology and pharmaceutical stocks; $Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.US)$ Start building positions at 68, take profit at 78, stop loss at 66, expected profit-loss ratio of 1:5; $CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP.US)$ Build positions below 52, support level at 57, stop loss set at 50.5, profit-loss ratio around 1:3. $Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR.US)$ Already at the bottom of the trading range, can take a low position bet on the financial reports on 11/13. $Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY.US)$Can continue to observe, currently facing strong resistance at the 280 gap --- PS: Research in the pharmaceutical industry is acceptable, but be bullish on the monkeys used for experiments (escape of the monkeys in South Carolina).
Currently holding a portion of the position. $Serve Robotics (SERV.US)$ Observe the trend next week, if there is no major bullish news, sell and clear the position during the rebound between 9.8 and 10.
Some AI concept stocks that have been performing well recently. $Strategy (MSTR.US)$   $Palantir (PLTR.US)$AI has already started to integrate with production applications, coupled with the infrastructure investment disclosed by major companies in last week's financial reports not having a significant reduction, therefore, the current judgement indicates that there is still considerable growth space for the AI and semiconductor industries. The current price levels can be observed for potential additional positions after a pullback.
9.   $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$Have already sold the recent positions and will not be operating for the time being. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$Expecting a significant pullback, observing first, a target price range between 280 and 300 seems reasonable.
Under the trend of Trump's promotion of manufacturing reshoring and reindustrialization policies, some manufacturing stocks are showing signs of warming up. $Lockheed Martin (LMT.US)$   $Boeing (BA.US)$   $United States Steel (X.US)$ Continuously monitor.
This week gradually entering the Christmas market, it is expected to use dollar-cost averaging to purchase high-quality stocks. This wave of market is likely to continue until mid to late December. Also pay attention to the potential negative impact of Japan's possible rate hike on US stocks.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only. Read more
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