Opinions from the semiconductor industry.
I will briefly explain the semiconductor market conditions and future prospects based on the predictions of industry papers/analysts and the situation on the ground.
Current situation:
The semiconductor stock index (SOX) has declined since mid-July, but there are no major changes in the semiconductor cycle itself.
- The global semiconductor revenue is still maintaining double-digit growth.
- AI-focused semiconductors (GPU, HBM) are currently driving the improvement of the semiconductor cycle.
- Semiconductors for automobiles and industrial equipment are still undergoing inventory adjustments but are approaching the bottom.
■ Future Outlook
- The prosperous period of the semiconductor cycle is expected to continue until the first half of next year (with a peak around the beginning of the year).
- Memory prices are expected to maintain high growth until the end of this year, but gradually slow down from next year.
- The recovery of demand in fields other than AI generation (smartphones, notebooks, servers, etc.) will be key.
- The demand for semiconductors for automobiles and industrial equipment is expected to recover in the future, but may be affected by the slowdown of the US economy.
■リスク要因
・米中半導体摩擦の激化
・生成AI投資、期待収益率の低下
・米国景気の本格的な減速
・中国のEV過剰生産問題や各国政府の財政支援継続の不透明性
■結論
・半導体サイクルは当面好況が続くが、株価の上値は重い展開が予想される
・今回の半導体サイクルは生成AI需要に大きく依存している
Current situation:
The semiconductor stock index (SOX) has declined since mid-July, but there are no major changes in the semiconductor cycle itself.
- The global semiconductor revenue is still maintaining double-digit growth.
- AI-focused semiconductors (GPU, HBM) are currently driving the improvement of the semiconductor cycle.
- Semiconductors for automobiles and industrial equipment are still undergoing inventory adjustments but are approaching the bottom.
■ Future Outlook
- The prosperous period of the semiconductor cycle is expected to continue until the first half of next year (with a peak around the beginning of the year).
- Memory prices are expected to maintain high growth until the end of this year, but gradually slow down from next year.
- The recovery of demand in fields other than AI generation (smartphones, notebooks, servers, etc.) will be key.
- The demand for semiconductors for automobiles and industrial equipment is expected to recover in the future, but may be affected by the slowdown of the US economy.
■リスク要因
・米中半導体摩擦の激化
・生成AI投資、期待収益率の低下
・米国景気の本格的な減速
・中国のEV過剰生産問題や各国政府の財政支援継続の不透明性
■結論
・半導体サイクルは当面好況が続くが、株価の上値は重い展開が予想される
・今回の半導体サイクルは生成AI需要に大きく依存している
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