Options Market Statistics: Paypal Q2 Earnings to Reflect Competitive Landscape, Options Pop
News Highlights
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ stock fell 1.30%. Its options trading volume was 2.62 million. Call contracts account for 61.5% of the total trading volume.
$Pfizer (PFE.US)$ stock fell 0.16%. Its options trading volume was 0.30 million. Call contracts account for 57.8% of the total trading volume.The $24 calls expiring August 16 were traded most actively.
Pfizer, $GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.US)$, and $Moderna (MRNA.US)$ are in a competitive race for their new respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines, with this competition being closely watched on Wall Street as the companies prepare to report earnings later this week. Investors and analysts are keen to hear details about negotiations with pharmacies for shelf space and the strategies the companies will use to capture market share after U.S. regulators narrowed the recommendation for which older adults should receive the shots this year. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently recommended the shots for adults 75 and older, and those aged 60 to 74 with an increased risk of severe RSV due to medical conditions. Last year, the vaccine was recommended for adults 60 and older. In 2023, GSK captured two-thirds of the market, primarily through contracts with retail pharmacies, and has maintained its dominant market share in the U.S. so far this year, according to Iqvia data from analyst notes.
$PayPal (PYPL.US)$ stock rose 1.12%. Its options trading volume was 0.23 million. Call contracts account for 60.9% of the total trading volume.The $64 calls expiring August 2nd were traded most actively.
With PayPal Holdings set to report Q2 earnings, investors are eager to see if CEO Alex Chriss, who took over from co-founder Dan Schulman less than a year ago, has made strides in boosting earnings growth. The company is expected to post an adjusted EPS of $0.99 for Q2, down from $1.08 in Q1. Analysts anticipate PayPal will raise its 2024 outlook, with the average estimate for full-year adjusted EPS now at $4.16, up from the company's April guidance of ~$3.83. However, this consensus estimate has decreased by 13% in the past three months and 25% over the past six months.
Since Q1, much of the narrative around PayPal (PYPL) has centered on increased competition from new Apple Pay features. William Blair's Cristopher Kennedy downgraded the stock, citing this intensifying competition. However, Susquehanna Financial analyst James Friedman highlighted consumer-facing improvements that enhance PYPL's branded checkout, including new AI-driven features for faster checkout introduced earlier this year.
SA Analyst Noah's Arc Capital Management is optimistic about PayPal's Q2 performance, noting that Apple lost an antitrust case in Europe, requiring it to open its near-field communications technology to third-party payment providers like PayPal. A similar win in the U.S. could diminish Affirm's and Apple's competitive edge in this space.
Wall Street analysts have lowered their Q2 earnings expectations for PayPal, with the average estimate dropping ~11% in the past three months and 25% in the past six months. SA Analyst Pearl Gray Equity and Research attributes this to "crowding" behavior that may have skewed estimates. Additionally, PayPal's Beneish M-Score suggests conservative earnings recognition practices, indicating that surprises from aggressive accounting are unlikely for Q2.
Unusual Stock Options Activity
There was a noteworthy activity in $Constellium (CSTM.US)$, where multiple calls have topped volume to open interest ranking. The highest volume over open interest ratio reaches 116.7x with 13,650 contracts.
Daily Active Index & Sector ETF Options
Source: Barchart, Unusual Whales, The Guardian, Bloomberg
Call/Put Option: Trade Options: Quickstart Guide
Option Expiration: Trade Options: Quickstart Guide
Implied Volatility Rank: Volatility Analysis: IV, HV, IV Rank, IV Percentile
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