💡 2024 outlook: based on 2023/12 FOMC results 1 ️ EF Monet...
💡 2024 outlook: based on 2023/12 FOMC results
1 ️ EF Monetary Policy and Market Impacts Due to the FOMC decision in 2023/12, the Fed left interest rates unchanged and showed an open stance against taking additional policy measures to control inflation. We are planning to cut interest rates three times in 2024, but we have not ruled out the possibility of further rate hikes. We see this decision as balancing expectations of monetary easing in the market with concerns about inflation.
2 ️ ︎ Impact on the stock market The possibility that interest rates remain unchanged and interest rate cuts will have a positive impact on growth stocks and technology stocks in particular. Monetary easing due to interest rate cuts is expected to reduce corporate borrowing costs and promote investment and growth. However, the risk of policy changes in response to inflation and economic trends continues to exist, so excessive expectations are strictly prohibited.
3 ️ ︎ In the bond market and interest rate bond market, it is expected that the expectation of interest rate cuts will have a suppressive effect on long-term interest rates. Regarding short-term interest rates, higher volatility is expected due to changes in the Fed's policy policy, and bond prices are likely to rise.
4 ️ CY AND EXCHANGE MARKETS The Fed's interest rate policy also affects the value of the dollar. If interest rate cuts are expected, there is a possibility that the dollar will weaken against other currencies. This could be an advantageous situation for emerging markets, but it would be a headwind for export industries, particularly to the US. For example, in the Japanese market, companies that enjoyed an increase in earnings due to the depreciation of the yen in 2023 need to be careful in 2024.
5 ️ ︎ Impact on the economy Overall, the Federal Reserve's policy aims to maintain a delicate balance between economic growth and inflation control. This balance is likely to have an impact on the 2024 economic growth rate and the job market. Based on the details of the FOMC this time, there is an increasing number of predictions in the market that a soft landing will be avoided.
📈 2024 outlook It can be said that the outlook for the US economy in 2024 stands at a very important turning point. This year, it will become clear whether we will follow the anomaly and move towards a recession or whether we will achieve a soft landing. Market trends are greatly influenced not only by economic indicators, but also by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly the possibility and timing of interest rate cuts. Inflation trends, changes in interest rates, and changes in policy policies are the main factors that determine the direction of the market. These factors may increase uncertainty for investors, and the market may reflect these indicators ahead of time in price.
In 2024, investors will be required to pay particular attention to the Fed's statements and economic indicators and adopt flexible investment strategies. This includes diversifying portfolios, strengthening risk management, and making quick adjustments to market trends. 2024 will be a year where agility and adaptability are required. It is necessary to create an investment strategy that can respond quickly to market movements and prepare it now.
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らんま丸 : After all, it's a soft landing. It's been a learning experience.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")