Pay attention to this week's financial results and economic calendar (12/18 to 12/22) Bank of Japan meeting! Will it be a year-end rally with global risk-on?

This week's points
Japanese stocks are expected to continue growing this week. At the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting to be held on 18-19The focus is on the presence or absence of policy revisions and whether hints for early normalization will come out. Early normalization observations rapidly strengthened in the first half of December in response to President Ueda's “challenging” remarks, but at this meetingPredictions to maintain the status quo are dominant. There is a high probability that the press conference will be an opportunity to confirm the true meaning of such statements. Also, due to the reduction in interest rate differences between Japan and the US, the increase in interest rate differences so far has been built up as materialMovements to reduce holding heightSince it's easy to head to, on the 19thContents of Governor Ueda's press conferenceThere is a lot of interest.

The first half of the week was turbulent due to speculations about the Bank of Japan meeting, but once the event passedexhaustionThere is awareness, and the movement to determine US economic indicatorsFix delays in response to strong US stocksIt is expected that there will be a move. It is expected that global risk appetite, which was strengthened in the wake of early US interest rate cut observations, will continue.If people who don't want to miss out on this trend come in, it's easy to become a year-end rally. Due to the pigeon shift in the US FOMC in December,Expectations for the Santa Claus rallyIt's been done.

Last week's market price points
1. The Nikkei Average rebounded for the first time in 3 weeks and temporarily recovered to the 33,000 yen level
2. The slowdown trend in the US-November CPI is far from the Fed's target
3. The Fed suggests interest rate cuts 3 times next year, and observations of interest rate cuts will intensify
4. The Dow Average and US SOX Index update their highest values every day
5. Long-term interest rates in the US fell sharply, and the yen rose to the 140 yen level at one point
6. The president of the NY Federal Reserve fights against the mood of the market

The Nikkei Average rebounded last week in the Tokyo Stock Exchange to 32,970.55 yen, 662.69 yen (2.05%) higher than the previous weekend, for the first time in 3 weeks. Increased interest rate cut observations after the FOMC and deep-seated speculation surrounding the cancellation of the negative interest rate policy by the Bank of JapanInducing a trend of depreciation of the dollar and appreciation of the yenAnd it has become a burden on Japanese stocks.

The US Federal Reserve's policy interest rateLeave it unchanged for 3 meetings in a rowI've decided that. From policy interest rate forecastsInterest rate cuts 3 times in 24In addition to suggesting the possibility, it was revealed that Fed Chairman Powell discussed the timing of interest rate cuts. Market participants say thisKey signals of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shiftAccept that, what is the US long-term interest rateLevels below 4%It fell sharply to, and with this as a tailwind, the Dow Average and the US Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Index (SOX) every dayNew all-time highI did it. However, NY Fed President Williams said on the 15th, “Currently, we are not discussing interest rate cuts at all. Since it was stated that “it is too early to think about interest rate cuts in March,” etc., profit-taking sales have come out. Who is the presidentConquer the post-FOMC market moodLooks like they've done it.

In terms of economic indicators, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI)almost as expectedIt becomes the content ofInflation continues to slowIt was accepted. The core was also generally as expected, but in addition to the increase in month-on-month growth from the previous time, the supercore, which Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is also concerned about, rose 0.4% from the previous month as a calculated value, from 0.2% last time.Although overall inflation is settling down, it looks like the strength of core inflation is showing. Meanwhile, retail sales of riceExpanding against market expectationsI did it. It recovered in November from the previous month's decline, suggesting that American consumers continue to be solid.