Pay attention to this week's financial results and economic calendar (5/13 to 5/17) US CPI! Expectations for stock price reviews of stocks that have plummeted due to financial results

This week's points
Are Japanese stocks turbulent this week? Market interests include the Rice Producer Price Index (PPI), the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), and US retail salesGathered in economic indicators. Currently, in response to economic indicators suggesting labor market relaxationExpectations for interest rate cuts are getting stronger again. If the price index also falls, the US interest rate cut scenario will strengthen, and US stocks are expected to rise, which will be positive for Japanese stocks. Meanwhile, a sense of caution against additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan is smoldering, and even when stock prices fall due to strong US indicators, etc., there is speculation that the share buybacks announced during the financial season will now enter the implementation phase and support lower prices.

Domestically, in response to Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo's remarks in his lecture and the main opinions of the Bank of Japan meetings,Speculation about additional interest rate hikes lurks. Also, it is conspicuous that domestic companies' financial results for the fiscal year ending 2014/3 are generally strong up to this point,There are many companies that give cautious numbers when it comes to earnings forecasts for the current fiscal year、There are few views in the market that positive surprises are strong、Expectations as a catalyst for stock appreciation are scarce. It is considered a safe range, including shareholder returns, and voices are heard saying “stock prices have no sense of direction.”

Meanwhile, in the US stock market, buyback momentum is increasing due to solid US corporate financial results and the revival of expectations for interest rate cuts within the year, and it showed a steady rise in May. However, there is a sense of relaxation even with that buyback. Investors still lack motivation to actively buy,The market is far from completely bullishA strategist at a major US bank pointed it out. The resolution of the short has progressed, and the S&P 500 position is almost long, but it seems that investors are still hesitating about further building up existing long positions. Meanwhile,The Nasdaq 100 flow is turning bearishAlso pointed out.There is only a slight increase in risk appetiteIt is also stated.

This week's dollar-yen exchange rateDevelopment while keeping an eye on the US economic indicatorsIt looks like it's going to happen. US materials have been brought up closely, and it is expected that the state of nervousness about long-term US interest rates and dollar yen trends will continue. What are the main opinions of the 4/25-26 monetary policy meeting announced by the Bank of Japan on the morning of the 9thHawkish wordingAlthough there were hints about the scale or timing of additional policy revisions, and considering that the interest rate difference between Japan and the US is still large, the dollar is lowerMotivation to buy specials intensifiesThe composition doesn't seem to change.

Last week's market price points
1. The Nikkei Average falls for the first time in 3 weeks, and there are many stocks that plummet after announcing disappointing financial results
2. Toyota's operating profit exceeded 5 trillion yen for the first time for a Japanese company, and operating profit is expected to be reduced by 20% this fiscal year, can the US and China, which are ahead of EV conversion?
3. Are “value stocks” making a comeback? The Dow has a “7 consecutive rise”, an unusual rate of increase of over the S&P 500 this month
4. The stock prices of the English Arm and US Palantier, which symbolize the AI boom, plummeted in response to financial results! A wake-up call for the AI boom? Is it an investment opportunity for a short-term adjustment phase?
5. Soros faction sells NVIDIA stock AI is being bought too much in the short term
6. Apple accelerates artificial intelligence strategy

In the US market, there are also hawkish statements from FOMC members, and they are struggling with a sense of direction. Nevertheless, the Dow average is 9 days,Achieved 7 consecutive gains、4.16% increase since MayThen, it surpassed the 3.54% increase in the S&P 500,It recorded the longest continuous rise since 23/12/19. According to analysts, this isDue to the strong performance of “value stocks”That's it. According to Frank Cappelleri of the technical analysis company CappThesis, while the S&P 500 is weighted based on the total market value of the constituent stocks, the Dow is weighted based on the stock price of the constituent stocks, in other words, the higher the stock price, the greater the impact on the index. Furthermore, it was pointed out that the constituent stock industries also led to a difference in the rate of increase between the two. Whereas 30% of the S&P 500 are technology stocks and 13% are financial stocks, the ratio of technology stocks to Dow is relatively small at 19%, and financial stocks account for 24%. Therefore, technology stocks with a relatively high degree of variation had a larger impact on the S&P 500 than the Dow.

Stanley Drackenmiller, known as the right hand man of George Soros, who is known as the world's top three investors on the 7thHas reduced NVIDIA stock holdingsIt was clarified. Stock prices increased rapidly due to the AI boom,It was bought too much in the short termThey say it's because of it. ”AI is still underrated in the long term, but slightly overrated in the short term” he pointed out. This led to the sale of Japanese semiconductor-related stocks. Investors' doubts about the generative AI growth curve continue. With NVIDIA's financial results announcement on the 22ndWill investment in AI-related stocks be booming again. Investors' sense of choice and patience is being tested by the undulating AI boom.