Pay attention to this week's financial results and economic calendar (6/10 to 6/14) Japan-US central bank meeting and CPI! Will NVIDIA rise one step further after passing through and after the expected split

This WeekThe point of
This week's Japanese stocks ahead of Japan-US monetary policy eventsAn eventful developmentis expected. Investors are interested in the future of monetary policy and interest rate trends in the market. Since the US FOMC, Bank of Japan meetings, and major SQ are successive, it is pointed out that “wait-and-see attitudes tend to strengthen, and it is difficult to get a clear sense of direction in the first half of the week.” Meanwhile, even if there are discussions on government bond purchase amounts at the Bank of Japan meeting or references to interest rate hikes at the Ueda Governor's press conference, Japanese stocks have been factored in to some extent, and there is a possibility that they will rise one level after passing the meeting. This week's dollar to yenThere are also voices wary of rapid changes. There are plenty of important events that continue with the US CPI, the US FOMC, and the Bank of Japan meeting. Depending on the results, there is a risk that the participants' speculations will fluctuate greatly. If the Bank of Japan shows a hawkish stance, there is a possibility that the trend of depreciation of the dollar and yen will intensify.

In the US market,The point is whether the downward trend in long-term interest rates continuesIt becomes. There were many weak economic indicators in the first half of last week, and US 10-year bond yields entered the 4.2% range, but the number of people employed in the non-farm sector in May unexpectedly increased drastically, and long-term US interest rates rose rapidly again. Other than the FOMC, there is a lot of material stimulating long-term interest rates in the US this week. Furthermore, since Canada and the ECB have decided to cut interest rates, if long-term US interest rates drop further at this timing, it can be expected that caution against inflation will recede drastically in the global stock market.

In addition, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Rice Producer Price Index (PPI), which are important indicators for looking at the future of US monetary policy, will also be announced. The CPI for May is expected to increase 0.3% from the previous month on a core basis excluding food and energy, which fluctuates greatly, and the same increase as the previous month. The rate of increase in CPI slowed for the first time in six months in April, and it became data to reinforce interest rate cuts within the year.

NVIDIA is scheduled to begin trading on a split adjusted basis from 6/10. Subsequent stock price movements also attracted a lot of attention. The past of US high-tech stocksPerformance after implementing the stock splitIf you look,Stock prices have been rising over the long term、There is a possibility of short-term adjustments. Here it is”Buy with speculation (expectation) and sell with factsThe law of stocks called” may apply. In addition to NVIDIA, movements after the stock split are deeply involved in the future development of all NVIDIA related stocks.

Last week'sMarket points
1. The Nikkei Average rebounds for the first time in 3 weeks, and the decline in long-term US interest rates is supporting material
2. “Meme stocks” skyrocketed again in the US and temporarily surged about 100% outside of game stop time
3. NVIDIA continues to update the highest price and is ranked 2nd in the world without Apple! Will there be any adjustments after the split next week?
4. Can Apple surge 8 times in a row and break through the $200 stock price ahead of WWDC
5. A wave of global monetary easing is rushing in
6. US ADP employment statistics and the number of JOLT job offers fell short of expectations, confirming that the US labor market is cooling
The number of people employed in the US non-farm sector unexpectedly increased drastically in 7.5, and the forecast for a reduction in US interest rates by the end of the year showed a complicated picture.

The Nikkei Average rebounded for the first time in 3 weeks to 38,683.93 yen (196.03 yen) higher than the previous weekend in the Tokyo stock market last week. The fact that long-term US interest rates have declined has become a support material for stocks. Meanwhile, observations of interest rate cuts intensified due to US economic indicators, and the dollar yen temporarily split 1 dollar = 155 yen and swayed to a higher yen, cooling investor sentiment. It has been pointed out that the optimistic mood is once again spreading in the US stock market. There were many weak details in the US economic indicators announced last week, and there was a sense of uncertainty about the future of the economy, but expectations for interest rate cuts from the FRB, which had been receding at the same time, have also been revived, and both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index have been pushed to the highest values. On the 5th, respectively25th time since 2024with13th timeThe highest value of was updated. Specifically, the number of JOLT job offers announced on the 4th declined more than expected, and it was the lowest since 21/2. The ADP employment statistics announced on the 5th fell short of expectations, and the cooling of the US labor market was further confirmed. In addition, the “price” of the same ISM non-manufacturing business climate index also declined by item.

However, the growth in the number of people employed in the non-farm sector announced on the 7th greatly exceeded expectations. The number of people employed in the non-farm sector settled down in April after the results greatly exceeded expectations from January to March,The downward trend did not continue. The yield on 10-year US bonds as of the 6th fell by about 5% cumulatively this week, reaching a low level for the first time in 2 months, but it rose rapidly in response to strong results in employment statistics,The forecast for lower US interest rates by the end of the year has receded againI did it. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose,The labor market is complex。

At the same time,A wave of global monetary easing is surging in. The Central Bank of Canada cut interest rates as expected, and a cycle of interest rate cuts in developed countries begins. The European Central Bank (ECB) also decided on the 6th to cut the policy interest rate by 0.25%. Since interest rates have been cut for the first time in 4 years and 9 months, expectations are likely to rise that the US will also implement interest rate cuts in the future. The market predicts that interest rate cuts will be decided with a probability of over 50% in the US FOMC in September.

At the Tokyo market, deliberation committee member Nakamura stated in his speech on the 6th that “maintaining the current state of monetary policy is appropriate for the time being,” and expressed a cautious view on proceeding with monetary policy normalization. Also, Governor Ueda stated at the House of Councillors Finance Committee on the same day that “actual inflation forecasts are still a bit far from reaching 2%,” etc., and did not show a positive hawkish stance on monetary tightening. On the 6th, Governor Ueda once again expressed his recognition that a reduction in government bond purchases is appropriate when proceeding with the normalization of monetary policy.

Hedge funds suddenly turned bullish on the yen exchange rate one after another, and multiple market participants revealed that they were moving in the opposite direction from before due to yen option transactions. At the monetary policy meeting to be held by the Bank of Japan as early as this week, Bloomberg reported that there is a high possibility of discussing the purchase reduction of long-term government bonds, including the pros and cons of showing a more specific policy, and the exchange rate of the dollar against the yen fell below 155 yen in the transaction on the 4th.