Pay attention to this week's financial results and economic calendar (6/24 to 6/28) US PCE and NVIDIA shareholders' meetings! Did US stocks record strong performance for the first time in 26 years

This week's points
Are Japanese stocks at a standoff this week? This week is the end of the month and the end of the quarter, and movements in balance adjustments are expected. At your feetStrong trend in US stocksThis is a supporting factor. Meanwhile,French stocks are uneasy about the political situationThere are also warning materials, such as strengthening adjustment colors from. The view that the Bank of Japan will show reduction policies etc. for government bond purchases in more detail at the monetary policy meeting in July is also a factor in refraining from buying. Furthermore, according to stock trading trends by investment sector for the 2nd week of June announced by the Tokyo Stock Exchange on the 20th (total of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the Stock Exchange)Overseas investors have oversold spot stocks for 4 consecutive weeksI did it.

Domestically, the Bank of Japan is on the 24thKey Opinions at the June Monetary Policy MeetingIt will be announced. It was a meeting to decide on a policy to buy and reduce government bonds, and there is a possibility that long-term interest rates will rise depending on the content of discussions. The Bank of Japan's main opinion could be an opportunity for the market to once again become aware of monetary tightening policies. In addition to the main opinions, the Tokyo Metropolitan Area CPI for June, which is a leading indicator of the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be announced on the 28th, is also an important material in determining future monetary policy.

In the US, in addition to US housing-related indicators, the financial authorities will use inflation targets as a standard this weekPersonal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Indexwill attract attention. The core price index, which excludes food and energy, is expected to remain low, rising 0.1% from the previous month. If inflation is shown along with the consumer confidence index to be announced on the 25th,There is a possibility that US interest rate reduction observations will intensifyRecently, however, weak figures suggesting a slowdown in the economy have been conspicuous,If concerns about the economy intensify excessively、A sense of alarm that US stocks in the high price range may be adjustedIt's deep-rooted.

What are US stocksThe momentum is for the S&P 500 to finish the first half of 2024 at 15% for the second year in a row. The year-to-date rate of increase for the S&P 500 was about 15% as of the 21st. 15% this weekIf it reaches the level of and exceeds the end of JuneFor the second year in a row, the rate of increase in the first half of the year will exceed 15%. The first half of the year was over 15% for 2 consecutive years since 1997 (19% higher) and 1998 (16% higher), which were before the dot com bubbleRecord for the first time in 26 yearsThat's it.

This week's dollar and yenWill you test the 160 yen range again, which is the highest price in 34 years. Economic indicators are often announced by both Japan and the US at the end of the month, so they will be nervous about trends in long-term interest rates and exchange rates. If the US PCE price index is weak,There is also a possibility that dollars will be sold in anticipation of interest rate cuts. However, even as weak economic indicators continue in the US,US FRB officials have successively expressed the view that it will take time to control inflationThen,Dollars are becoming easier to buy. Meanwhile, according to the main opinions of the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting in JuneDo you have any hints for interest rate hikes in JulyAlso pay attention to. By the Japanese monetary authorityThe focus is on the timing of the yen buying interventionHowever, since Japan was added to the “monitoring list” to closely monitor whether exchange operations have been carried out in the foreign exchange policy report published by the US Treasury Department on the 20th, in the marketIt became difficult for the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan to interveneThere are many people who look at it, and so far, the sense of caution against intervention has not increased that much. Meanwhile, if European political unease is once again made aware of in preparation for the French National Assembly (House of Representatives) election for the 1st vote to be held on the 30thThere is a possibility that yen, which is regarded as a safe currency, will be preferredThere is.

Last week's market price points
1. The Nikkei Average falls for the first time in 3 weeks, and risk aversion is strong
2. The S&P 500 is rising 15% in the first half of the year for 2 consecutive years! US Wall Street raises S&P 500 year-end targets one after another　
3. Warning for the highest price update! “NVIDIA dependency anxiety” hidden behind the rise The decline in rising stocks is clear
4. The battle for the top US market capitalization continues! First crustal deformation in 11 years promoted by generative AI, the next focus is a battle with a total market value of 4 trillion dollars
Taiwan TSMC market capitalization approaching 5.1 trillion dollars, target stock price increases one after another on Wall Street
6. A succession of economic indicators suggesting economic deceleration! US retail sales fell short of expectations, and the previous month's worth was also revised downward　
7. Overseas players are going against Toyota! Did you buy it because of a sharp drop of 20% due to unauthorized certification and the depreciation of the yen progressing and a sense of affordability?

The Nikkei Average fell to 38,596.47 yen in the Tokyo stock market last week, 218.09 yen (0.56%) lower than the previous weekend, for the first time in 3 weeks. Since the Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's meeting, vigilance against financial tightening was rekindled, and European stocks were sold heavily due to political unease, etc.Risk aversion attitudes have strengthened。

As the S&P 500 continues to hit new highs, major banks on Wall Street are once againHas the S&P 500 target stock price been raised. What is Evercore ISI's forecast for the S&P 500 as of the end of the year6000They were raised to become one of Wall Street's strongest teams. Against the backdrop of the huge potential of the “AI revolution,”Corporate profits increased 8%I expected that. Following Evercore, Goldman Sachs, Citi, UBS, and BMO also raised their target stock prices for the S&P 500 to 5600. Peter Callahan of Goldman Sachs said the PER (price-earnings ratio) of the top 10 stocks by market capitalization in the S&P 500About 30 timesIt is one of the top 10 brands at the peak of the dot com bubble in 2000About 47 timesCompared toCurrent US stocks are still not “overvalued”It was said.

Last week's US economic indicators showed a succession of economic indicators suggesting economic deceleration. There was only a slight increase in US retail sales, and the past two months' worth was revised downward until the previous month. While showing expectations for a slowdown in inflation,Content that suggests economic decelerationBut it's there. The number of US housing starts and the June Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business IndexThere was a big downturn in predictionsIn particular, the number of housing starts has been at a low level since 20/6. Meanwhile, statements from several FOMC members were also conveyed. The attitude depending on economic indicators is emphasized, and if the development is as expected, the possibility of interest rate cuts by the end of the year is mentioned. On the other hand, it also stated that we should be patient with interest rate cuts,Cautious attitudeIt was also oozing.