NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 139.400 INTC
Intel
-- 27.390 TSLA
Tesla
-- 354.110 GRAB
Grab Holdings
-- 5.300 SMCI
Super Micro Computer
-- 55.800 This week's earnings and economic calendar (7/15~7/19) Focus on semiconductor stock earnings! Will AI-related growth stocks see profit-taking?
This week's outlook for Japanese stocks is slightly negative. While there is lingering caution about being in the zone of record highs after the rapid recent rise, expectations for strong performance of domestic companies and bullish sentiment are persistent, creating a tug of war. However, amid the rapid appreciation of the yen...Expectations for an upward revision of this term's performance may also be diminishing.According to the Bank of Japan's short-term economic observation survey (Tankan, June survey), the assumed exchange rate for this term by companies is 144.77 yen. If the yen continues to appreciate, the expectation of improved performance is likely to shrink, and if the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations fade, low yen interest rates could have a negative impact on financial stocks.This week, the economic indicators of the United States and the earnings reports of major semiconductor-related companies are expected to be the focus of attention.seems to be.
In semiconductor-related stocks, the Dutch equipment manufacturer $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$On the 17th, and on the 18th, the largest contract chip manufacturer $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$(TSMC) and $Disco (6146.JP)$of Japan are scheduled to make announcements. ThatDepending on the content, semiconductor-related stocks may move significantly again.Many semiconductor stocks experienced a significant decline on the 11th.If the earnings are good, it is expected that there will be buying opportunities on pullbacks.If the earnings are disappointing, semiconductor stocks are likely to be disliked.There is also the possibility of funds shifting to other industries.There are some.
Particularly notable is Taiwan TSMC. The company announced last week,However, on the following day, the 18th, some TSMC-related stocks showed positive movements in the Tokyo stock market.and Its market cap temporarily exceeded 1 trillion dollars. It has risen nearly 80% year-to-date, with the upcoming second quarter earnings reports, several analysts have raised their target stock prices. from the closing price of 1040 Taiwan dollars on the 9th, there is a potential upside of up to 30%. The market expects the company's second quarter revenue to be a 36% increase from the previous year. An increase of 36% compared to the previous year.US PCE Price Index revised downward to 2.8% increase for the April-June quarterRapid growth since the fourth quarter of 2022.It is expected to be that. In addition, in the USA, on the 15th, $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$on the 16th, $Bank of America (BAC.US)$on the 18th, $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ etc. will disclose their performance.
On the 16th, in US economic indicators, June retail revenue.There will be announcements on the usa retail revenue index, confirming whether there is excessive weakness in the economy.The same is true for the high-priced usa stocks, where the anticipation of a rate cut in September is progressing, but now attention to the economy is necessary."What used to be bad news is good news, but bad news can become bad news" is also being observed. A decrease compared to the previous month is expected in the market.There is also the possibility of increasing the speculation of a rate cut due to the forecast undershoot of the usa CPI. Attention extends to whether the movement in the direction of the yen depreciation has ended.There is also heightened caution against yen-buying intervention due to the sharp rise of the yen on the 11th, as well as the declining stock market sentiment due to increased risk sentiment.
This week's USD/JPY is Focus is on whether the movement in the direction of yen depreciation has ended.There is also heightened caution against yen-selling intervention due to the sharp rise of the yen on the 11th, as well as the declining stock market sentiment due to increased risk sentiment.There is a possibility of continued unwinding of carry trades selling the low-interest yen and buying the dollar. This week, in addition to the US retail revenue, there are also many US residential related indicators, which are likely to influence views on the US economy in the foreign exchange market. Current US economic indicators show weakness, with the focus on early September rate cut expectations due to noticeable weaknesses in the June US ISM Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing Economic Index, June employment statistics, and the July 11 CPI report, along with increasing concerns about the future of the US economy. If weakness is also observed in retail and residential sectors, it is said that the market participants' envisioned scenario of a soft landing for the US economy may need to change, potentially leading to expectations of an early rate cut and a peak in the dollar's strength.
1. The Nikkei Average extended gains for the third consecutive week, breaking the historical barrier of ¥0.04 million for the first time, but experienced a rapid drop of over ¥1000 from a sharp rise in the yen.
2. Expectations of a rate cut justified by CPI deceleration, with rotation from selling high-tech stocks to lagging stocks.
3. Nearly $600 billion disappeared on the 1st! Was the US super large cap stock 'M7' abandoned?
4. Is it time for abandoned small-cap stocks to shine? The best performance since March 2020.
5. AI-related US stocks on the rise, is it time to take profits? "The bullish semiconductor market has only just begun," says BofA.
Chairman Powell: "There is no need to wait until inflation returns to 2% to ease policy."
U.S. PPI slightly exceeded expectations in June.
Last week in the Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei average rose by 278.31 yen (0.68%) compared to the previous week, reaching 11,190.68 yen, marking the third consecutive week of gains. Due to the greater-than-expected deceleration of the U.S. CPI, the USD/JPY fell sharply from the mid-161 yen level to the 157 yen level, leading to speculation of intervention by some participants. Finance Minister Kanda stated that he is not in a position to comment on the speculation of intervention. The sharp rise in the yen against the dollar at one point became a cause for concern, and on the 12th, large cap stocks fell by over 1,000 yen. However, the week ended with a net gain. On the 12th, the Nikkei average in the Tokyo stock market fell by 1033 yen compared to the previous day, causing a sharp decline.The decline is the largest this year.。
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated last week, during two days of testimony, that he wants to further confirm evidence of inflation deceleration, while expressing growing concerns among officials about the risks that high interest rates could pose to the labor market. By referring to the labor market, which is of high relevance to investors trying to determine the timing of rate cuts,the employment statistics have become even more relevant.On the other hand, "There is no need to wait until inflation returns to 2% to ease the policy." Powell said. The market's dominant view is that a rate cut environment is getting closer, which led to a strong rebound in the Dow average and a significant increase in the Nasdaq in the U.S. stock market on the 10th.The S&P500 index reached a record 5,600 points for the first time.It was upbeat.
However, June's U.S. CPI fell below expectations for both the overall and core indices, showing a broad-based slowdown. The monthly comparison was the first negative since May 2020.Residence costs also notably decelerated, providing the Fed with conviction to cut interest rates. Speculation has increased that there will be at least two rate cuts by the end of the year.In response, a significant sector rotation occurred in the U.S. stock market on the 11th.A large-scale sector rotation has occurred.Large cap stocks in the US.M7 was heavily sold.According to the data,M7's market capitalization has lost nearly 600 billion dollars.and as a daily decline, it is the largest since February 2022.In particular, it recorded an 11-day consecutive rise and has risen 44% in the past 10 days.However, it was postponed due to the robo-taxi event. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$Due to the postponement of the Robo taxi eventSimilarly, the software company also released its earnings report this week, with Q1 subscription revenue falling below expectations, causing the stock price to drop by over 8% on the 5th day. Higher interest rates and an unstable business environment are affecting new software investments, and the annual revenue guidance also fell below market estimates. BofA and Morgan Stanley lowered their target stock prices.However, in response to that, there was a rush to buy stocks that benefit from low interest rates.Small cap index Russell 2000 rose by 3.57%, outperforming the S&P 500 index.Reaching its highest performance since March 2020.On the other hand, the Producer Price Index (PPI) released on the 12th slightly exceeded expectations in June.Regarding the future of US stocks, Morgan Stanley's Wilson stated that the current US stock market has limited attractiveness in terms of valuation.
Wilson, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, believes that the current US stock market lacks attractiveness in terms of valuation.Regarding the future of US stocks, Wilson from Morgan Stanley believes that the current US stock market lacks attractiveness in terms of valuation., the third quarter will be a highly volatile development.It is expected to fall as much as 10% before the election.and there is little possibility of further rise until the end of the year. However, the decline in stock prices is not a concern,provides a buying opportunitythe same person thinks it ishigh-quality growth stocksYawith a strong balance sheetIt is recommended to pay attention to them. However, these companies are currently traded at high prices.A market downturn is necessary to provide a more attractive entry point.It is expected that it will become so.
Regarding AI-related stocks,It is time to realize the maximum profits of the largest stocks.According to strategists at Citigroup, the sentiment for AI-related stocks is the strongest since 2019, and most of these companies are expected to exceed analysts' expectations for free cash flow. Such a situation usually suggests a significant increase in volatility.The bullish trend in semiconductors is not over yetdue to the momentum of AI.There is a possibility that it will continue until the middle of 2026.BofA points out that semiconductor stocks have the potential to decline in the short term due to factors such as financial policies.the U.S. presidential electionYaHowever, they maintain a bullish view in the long term because the semiconductor industry is expected to recover after the downturn cycle.There is a possibility of a decline in the short term due to factors such as financial policies.However, they point out that it will maintain a bullish stance in the long term.This is because the semiconductor industry is expected to recover after the downturn cycle.There is a tendency to show an upward trend in the past 10 quarters.And that pattern is just beginning. On the other hand, "Semiconductors are experiencing a seasonal transition.According to seasonal trends, they want to be sellers of semiconductors in late July and tread cautiously until mid-October," said Jeff deGraaf of Renaissance Macro.
出所：FactSet、MINKABU、Bloomberg、investing、ロイター
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Trump 2.0 Era: How will global markets evolve?
🎙️Discussion: 1. How will tariff policies affect the movement of key assets such as U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin? 2. Given this context,
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MicroStrategy Q4 2024 earnings conference call
HONDA N-ONE : “Citigroup strategists point out that now is the time to determine profits for the biggest stocks”
“According to BofA, the semiconductor bull market is not over yet, and there is a possibility that it will continue until mid-2026 due to AI momentum.”
Which one is it
these guys are really sly aren't they
I'm changing my opinion from time to time
よろぴこ : Since the long-term trend line for semiconductors is upward, the way opinions are viewed changes depending on whether they are investors who mainly trade short-term or whether they are investors who mainly trade medium- to long-term in monthly increments. I was swayed and impatient, and trading wasn't the best.
184084675 : I really don't know which way
I'll do it at my own risk
破滅 : At the end of the day, everyone only believes what they want to believe, so writing both arguments together is the best risk hedge. In a sense, it tells me the essence of investing (laughs)
181053899 : Home (me