Pay attention to this week's financial results and economic calendar (7/15 to 7/19) semiconductor stock financial results! Is it time to determine profits for AI-related rising stocks?

This week's points
Japanese stocks are forecast to weaken this week. While the sense of caution that it is in the record high price range is smoldering through the recent rapid rise, there is also a strong sense of supremacy due to speculation about the good performance of domestic companies, and it seems like it will be a tug-of-war. However, as the rapid appreciation of the yen progresses,Expectations for an upturn in earnings for the current fiscal year are also becoming more likely to recede. According to the Bank of Japan's short-term corporate economic observation survey (tankan, June survey), the estimated exchange rate for companies this fiscal year is 144 yen 77 sen. If the appreciation of the yen progresses in the future, it is easy for expectations to improve performance to shrink, and if yen interest rates decline due to a retreat in Bank of Japan interest rate hike observations, it will work negatively on financial stocks.US economic indicators and financial results of leading semiconductor-related companies are in the spotlight this weekIt looks like it's going to happen.

On the 16th according to the US Economic IndexJune retail salesThere is an announcement. Through the US retail sales index,Check if there is excessive weakness in the economyThat's going to happen. Although the September interest rate cut is being factored in for US stocks, which are also in the high price range,Now we need to keep an eye on the economyIt's becoming. It is also seen that “until now bad news was good news, but bad news can become bad news.” A month-on-month decline is expected in the market. There is also a possibility that interest rate cut observations, which have increased due to the downturn in the US CPI compared to expectations, will be further strengthened.

This week's dollar to yenThe focus is on whether the movement in the direction of depreciation of the yen has ended. A sense of caution against yen buying intervention is growing due to the sharp rise in yen on the 11th, and stock depreciation due to worsening risk sentimentSelling yen with low interest rates to buy dollars may continue to unwind in carry transactionsThere is. This week, in addition to US retail sales, there are many indicators related to US housing, and it seems that views on the US economy will affect exchange rates. As for the current US economic indicators, in addition to the US June ISM manufacturing/non-manufacturing business index at the beginning of the month and the US June employment statistics, weak ones are conspicuous, with the US CPI on the 11th conspicuous, and while observations of the start of interest rate cuts in September have surfaced, concerns about the future of the US economy are also intensifying. If weakness also appears to be seen in retail and housing-related matters, it is said that “there is a possibility that the US soft landing scenario drawn by market participants will be pressured to change, and the expectation of early interest rate cuts and the feeling of a peak out of the dollar will intensify.”

Last week's market price points
1. The Nikkei Average continued to rise for 3 weeks, breaking through 0.04 million2000 yen for the first time in history, and plummeted by over 1000 yen a day due to the rapid appreciation of the yen
2. Justify expectations of interest rate cuts due to CPI deceleration, and rotation to high-tech stock sales & overdue stocks
Nearly 600 billion dollars disappeared in 3.1 days! Has the super-large US stock “M7” been abandoned?
4. Is it time for abandoned small-cap stocks? Best performance since March 2020
5. Is it time to determine profits for rising stocks related to US AI? “The semiconductor bull market has just begun,” said BofA
6. Chairman Powell: “We don't need to wait until inflation returns to 2% to ease policies”
7. Growth in US PPI slightly exceeded expectations in June

The Nikkei Average continued to rise for 3 weeks to 0.04 million1190.68 yen in the Tokyo stock market last week, 278.31 yen (0.68%) higher than the previous weekend. Since the US CPI decelerated more than expected, the decline in dollars and yen was severe, and it was observed that intervention was underway from around the middle of the 161 yen range to the 157 yen level. Treasurer Kanda says he is not in a position to comment on the presence or absence of intervention observations. The fact that the dollar and yen depreciated sharply at one point became a warning sign, and large stocks were sold on the 12th and fell over 1000 yen. Even so, we finished the week on a positive note. The Nikkei Average plummeted 1033 yen lower than the previous day in the Tokyo Stock Market on the 12th,The biggest drop this year。

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said last week that he wanted to further confirm evidence of slowing inflation during his two-day testimony, and that there is growing concern among officials about the risk that high interest rates could pose to the labor market. By referring to the labor market, for investors who are trying to determine when interest rate cuts will begin,What employment statistics are more relevantIt became. Meanwhile,”There is no need to wait until inflation returns to 2% to ease policies” Powell said. The view that there is a possibility that the market is one step closer to an interest rate cut environment prevails, and the Dow average rebounded drastically in the US stock market on the 10th, and the NASDAQ also rose drastically.The S&P 500 index is in the 5600 point range for the first time in historyI was able to put it on.

In contrast to the future direction of US stocks, Mr. Wilson of Morgan Stanley is currentlyUS stocks have poor valuation appealThe third quarter was extremely unstable,Up to 10% drop before the electionAlso, it is predicted that there is almost no possibility that it will continue to grow until the end of the year. However, the fall in stock prices is not a cause for concern,Provide a place to shopHe thinks it's a thing,High quality growth stocksYaCompanies with strong balance sheetsIt is recommended that you pay attention to. However, these companies are currently traded at expensive prices,Market depreciation is necessary to provide more attractive entry pointsIt is said that it will become.

In contrast to AI-related stocks,Now is the time to determine the profits of the biggest stocksThen Citigroup strategists pointed it out. Citigroup said on the 9th that sentiment towards AI-related stocks was strongest since 2019, and the free cash flow of most of these companies is expected to exceed analysts' expectations. This situation usually suggests a “significant increase in volatility.” Meanwhile, according to BofA,The bull market for semiconductors is not over yet, due to the momentum of AIPossibility of continuing until mid-2026There is. What is BofA semiconductor stockUS presidential electionYamonetary policyIf you look at it in the short term due to factors such asThere is a possibility that it will fallIt was pointed out that it will remain bullish in the long run. This is because after a downcycle, the semiconductor industryA trend showing a 10-quarter increaseThere is, and that pattern is just beginning. Meanwhile,”Semiconductors are undergoing a seasonal turning point. “If you follow seasonal trends, you'll become a semiconductor seller in late July, and you'll want to wait and see until mid-October,” says Jeff DeGraaf of Renaissance Macro.