This week's earnings and economic calendar (9/30~10/4) Focus on US stocks breaking the curse of September, Powell's speech, and employment statistics! Will there be a Japan version of Black Monday again due to the Ishiba shock?
The Japanese stock market this week is expected to have an unstable development. With Shigeru Ishiba being elected as the new president in the LDP presidential election,Market reactions to strengthened taxation on financial income and the Bank of Japan's monetary policies are being watched.There is attention on Mr. Ishiba's policies, which include regional revitalization and the establishment of a disaster prevention agency.Disaster-related stocksandRegional revitalization-related stocksThere is a possibility of increased investment in disaster-related and regional revitalization-related stocks.
On the other hand, after Mr. Ishiba's victory,Yen appreciation is progressing.and日本株市場は売りが優勢となる見込みだ。また、月末月初の週であるため、利益確定売りが増える可能性も高く、株価の下振れリスクが意識されやすい。さらに、米国の重要経済指標（ISM製造業景気指数、非製造業景気指数、雇用統計）の発表も控えており、これらのデータが市場に大きな影響を与える可能性がある。
米国株式市場はContinued strong movement is expected.This year, US stocks have been performing well, and the S&P500 index has risen by 20% year-to-date.Approaching record highs. Since the third quarter ends on Monday, the same index willbe near record levels.is showing the most impressive performance for the January-September period since 1997.Especially, due to expectations of economic stimulus measures in China, this year'sbuying trend in China-related stocksis expected to continue. Also, with the VIX index maintaining low levels and investor sentiment remaining stable, there is the potential for the Dow Jones Average and S&P500 toupdate record highs daily.is high.
However, there is a possibility that the outlook for the next FRB rate cut may be subject to fluctuations.Economic indicatorsmay fluctuate depending onThis weekPay attention to important economic indicators that are announced.. In particular, if the September employment statistics announced on October 4 deteriorate, the speculation of a significant additional rate cut by the FRB will increase further, potentially impacting the stock market. The S&P was sold off after the past two employment statistics releases (respectively-1.8％、-1.7％}). This time,there is a possibility of higher volatility than the average this time.
In this employment statistics, the expected number of non-agricultural employees is expected to increase by 0.14 million, remaining almost flat. The unemployment rate is also expected to be at 4.2%, the same level as the previous report.
In addition,Federal Reserve Chairman Powell Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech on the economic outlook on September 30 (October 1 Japan time). Powell's speech may provide investors with insights into the direction of monetary policy and economic outlook, attracting a lot of market participants' attention. Depending on the content of this speech, it could have a significant impact on the stock market and the foreign exchange market.
This week's dollar-yen exchange rate is likely to develop with a mix of buying and selling, while searching for direction. This comes after Shigeru Ishiba's victory in the leadership election.Yen appreciation is progressing.and the Bank of Japanmaintains a positive stance on financial normalization, whilethe economic indicators of the usabecome factors influencing the movement of the dollar. If these indicators fall below expectations, the risk of a weak dollar and a strong yen is likely to increase. In particular,the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing business conditions indices, as well as the employment statistics for September, are of interest.
In the usa, October 1 will see the release of the ISM manufacturing business conditions index, JOLTS job openings, on the 2nd the September ADP employment report, on the 3rd the ISM non-manufacturing index, and on the 4th employment statistics along with highly anticipated economic indicators.
1. Nikkei average extends gains for 3 weeks, approaching 90,000 yen in the latter half.
2. Market turmoil with victory of Shigeru Ishiba in LDP presidential election, leading to strong yen advancement.
3. Breaking the curse of September! Major US stock indices rise for 3 consecutive weeks, with S&P500 and Dow reaching all-time highs.
4. Micron Technology's strong earnings report causes a sharp rise in semiconductor stocks.
5. Even with Nvidia's sharp drop on Friday, it still holds significant influence over the market's future, correlating with S&P500 by 86%.
6. Massive financial easing in China leads to a surge in Chinese stocks, also driving up Japanese and American China-related stocks.
Last week, the Nikkei average in the Tokyo stock market rose for the third consecutive week, reaching 0.03 million9829 yen, which is 2105 yen (5.6%) higher than the previous week. This was due to the widening of the interest rate spread between Japan and the United States.Yen depreciation is progressing.し、日本株は大型株を中心に買われ、日経平均は7月31日以来の39000円台を回復した。植田日銀総裁が「追加の利上げを急がない」との姿勢を示し、10年物国債利回りは一時0.7％台に低下。これにより円は主要通貨に対して全面安となった。一方、中国の大規模な金融緩和発表で中国株が急騰し、日本の中国関連銘柄も上昇。自民党総裁選への思惑が強まり、日経平均は週末に40000円台に迫る動きとなったが、石破茂氏が総裁に選出された後、為替市場で急速に円高が進行し、日経225先物は日中終値比2410円安の37440円で取引を終えた。
米国株式市場ではThe major 3 indices achieved 3 consecutive weeks of gains.andbreaking the spell of "September, the month of hardships" with momentum. The Dow Jones average recorded a triple-digit increase over the weekend, ending the week.reached a new all-time high,and ending the week on the 26th with the S&P500 index achieving its 42nd all-time high on the back of a series of bright economic indicators.The Nasdaq Composite Index also maintained its momentum, achieving its 42nd all-time high.success. $Micron Technology (MU.US)$Supported by the post-earnings surge of , $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Supported by the rise, it showed a favorable movement. Specifically, the S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose approximately last week.0.6% increaseThe Nasdaq Composite Indexnearly a 1% increasereached a record high.
One of the main factors supporting the US stock market is positive economic dataIndeed.Last week's Economic data is generally favorable for the stock market.And the PCE data released on the 27th supports the steady progress towards the FRB's target of 2.0%. The number of jobless claims continues to be below expectations, and the GDP outlook also indicates a healthy economy. These factors are strengthening the confidence in achieving a 'soft landing'.strengthening the conviction that a 'soft landing' can be achieved。
-PCE Price Index: The month-on-month change in the composite index increased by 0.1% as expected, while the year-on-year change was 2.2%, the lowest increase since February 2021. Core PCE rose by 0.1% month-on-month, falling below the expected 0.2% increase, and the year-on-year change was 2.7%, in line with market expectations.
-S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI: It decreased from 54.6 in the previous month to a low of 54.4 in two months. The services PMI dropped from 55.7 to 55.4, hitting a two-month low, while the manufacturing PMI declined from 47.9 in the previous month to 47.0, a 15-month low.
-Consumer Confidence Index: It decreased by 6.9 points from August to 98.7, significantly below the expected 104.0. This value of 98.7 is at a three-year low, with the largest decrease since August 2021.
• GDP final value: 3.0%, slightly exceeded the expected 2.9%.
• Initial jobless claims: The number of applications hit a 4-month low of 0.218 million, below the expected 0.225 million. Continuing jobless claims were 1.834 million, below the expected 1.838 million but increased from the previous week's 1.829 million.
The market still seems to expect a significant rate cut from the midpoint forecast in the dot plot provided by the Federal Reserve. Currently, the expectation is for an additional 75 basis points cut this year, compared to the Federal Reserve's forecast of 50 basis points.Expectations are for a 75 basis points rate cut this year.to be implemented.
Other factors contributing to last week's rise include,• A series of economic stimulus measures announced by the Chinese government towards achieving end-of-year growth targetsIn the United States, there is a possibility of benefiting from China's stimulus measures last week.MaterialsandIndustrial productsIndustries such as etc are performing well. Furthermore, amid rising expectations for demand from China,Luxury goods stocksalso plungedand became the most promising week in recent years。
When it comes to technology stocks, last week's big news was undoubtedly $Micron Technology (MU.US)$'s earnings report, which caused a surge in semiconductor stocks including $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$. However, amidst the bullish mood, Bloomberg reported that Chinese authorities are urging domestic companies to avoid purchasing NVIDIA chips and instead use products from domestic suppliers like Huawei. In response to this, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$stock plummeted by 2.1% on the 27th, resulting in a significant drop of2.1%and $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$are a 4.7% sharp decline.However, TSMC became last week.up about 4%, while NVIDIA alsorose by 4.7%.According to FactSet data, the correlation between NVIDIA and the S&P500 index in the current quarter isapproximately 86%.。
In addition, $Palantir (PLTR.US)$Was downgraded by Raymond James and received a comment saying "growth commensurate with high ratings is necessary." $Intel (INTC.US)$Also attracted attention, receiving an investment proposal of up to 5 billion dollars from Apollo Global Management (APO). $Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$Also reported as a potential acquisition target. Meanwhile, $Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$Also approached Intel about acquiring its product division, but was rejected by Intel side as "not for sale".
Source: FactSet, MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Yahoo Finance, Schwab
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さすらいのライダー : Oh no. It might not just be tomorrow, but next week could be very stormy. This year's market is really chaotic.
182712675 : Breaking through the barrier of 0.04 million 2000 yen, future goals of 0.05 million and 0.06 million are also becoming visible! In the future, it will be more advantageous to buy TOPIX and index etf products.