This week's earnings and economic calendar (9/30~10/4) Will the US stocks break free from the curse of September? Pay attention to Chairman Powell's speech and employment statistics! Will Japan see another Black Monday due to the Ishiba shock?
The Japanese stock market is expected to have an unstable development this week. With the election of Shigeru Ishiba as the new party leader in the LDP presidential election.market reaction to strengthened financial income taxation and Bank of Japan's monetary policy will be watched. Ishiba's policies include regional revitalization and establishment of a disaster prevention agency,etc.Disaster-related stocksやLocal revitalization-related stocksinvestment in them is expected to become more active.
On the other hand, after Mr. Ishiba's victory,The yen is appreciating.At one point, the Japanese stock market is dominated by selling pressureIt is expected to be. In addition,Weeks at the end and beginning of the monthであるため、There is a potential increase in profit-taking selling, and the risk of downward pressure on stock prices is likely to be recognized. Furthermore, important economic indicators in the USA (ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, Employment Statistics) are on the horizon, and the release of these data could have a significant impact on the market.The US stock market
Continued solid movement is expectedUS stocks have been performing well this year, with the S&P500 indexHaving a strong year.YTD up 20%approaching a record high as the third quarter ends on Monday.momentum to record the best 1-9 month period performance since 1997.Especially with expectations for China's economic stimulus measures, buying into Chinese-related stocks that have lagged behind this year is expected to continue.BuyFurthermore, with the VIX index maintaining low levels and investor sentiment stable, the Dow Average and S&P500 have the potential to continue setting new all-time highs on a daily basis.update to record highs consecutivelyis high.
However, there may be fluctuations in the outlook for the next FRB rate cut.Economic indicatorsmay vary depending onThis weekPay attention to important economic indicators that will be announced.. In particular, if the September employment statistics announced on October 4 deteriorate, there is a possibility that the market will react significantly to the further anticipated rate cuts by the FRB. After the past two employment statistics announcements, the S&P was sold off (respectively-1.8％、-1.7％}). This time,there is a possibility of higher volatility than the average.
In this employment statistics, the expected number of non-agricultural employees is expected to increase by 0.14 million, remaining almost flat. The unemployment rate is also expected to be at the same level of 4.2% as the previous report.
Also,Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook on September 30 (October 1 Japan time). Powell's speech may provide investors with clues about the direction of monetary policy and the economic outlook, attracting the attention of many market participants. Depending on the content of this speech, it could have a significant impact on the stock market and the foreign exchange market.
This week's USD/JPY exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between buying and selling while searching for direction. Following Shigeru Ishiba's leadership election victory.The yen is appreciating.And, the Bank of Japanmaintains a positive stance on financial normalization.Meanwhile, economic indicators in the United Statesbecome factors influencing the movement of the dollar. If these indicators fall below expectations, there may be an increased risk of a weaker dollar and a stronger yen. In particular, the ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Business Indexes, as well as the September employment statistics, are being watched.In the United States, there will be a series of releases of high-profile economic indicators, such as the ISM Manufacturing Business Index and JOLTS Job Openings on October 1, ADP Employment Report for September on the 2nd, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index on the 3rd, and Employment Statistics on the 4th.
In the usa, October 1 will see the release of the ISM manufacturing business conditions index, JOLTS job openings, on the 2nd the September ADP employment report, on the 3rd the ISM non-manufacturing index, and on the 4th employment statistics along with highly anticipated economic indicators.
The Nikkei average has risen for three weeks, approaching the 30,000 yen mark.
The market is in turmoil due to the victory of Mr. Shigeru Ishiba in the LDP presidential election, with the progress of a strong yen.
Breaking the September curse! The major U.S. stock indices have risen for three consecutive weeks, with the S&P 500 and Dow reaching all-time highs.
Micron Technology reported strong earnings, causing semiconductor stocks to soar.
Despite Nvidia's sharp fall on Friday, it still holds significant influence over the market with an 86% correlation to the S&P 500.
Chinese stocks surged due to a large-scale financial easing in China, leading to the rise of Chinese-related stocks in Japan and the US.
Last week in the Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei average rose for the third consecutive week to ¥0.03 million9829, up ¥2105 (5.6%) from the previous week. This was due to the widening of the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States.The yen depreciation is progressing.In Japan, with a focus on large cap stocks, the Nikkei average recovered the 39,000 yen level for the first time since July 31st. Governor Kuroda of the Bank of Japan showed a stance of not rushing for additional rate hikes, leading to a temporary drop in the 10-year government bond yield to the 0.7% level. As a result, the yen depreciated significantly against major currencies. On the other hand, with China's announcement of a massive monetary easing, Chinese stocks surged, and Japanese China-related stocks also rose. Speculation intensified over the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election, pushing the Nikkei average close to the 40,000 yen level towards the weekend. However, after Mr. Ishiba was elected as the party leader, the rapid appreciation of the yen in the foreign exchange market caused the Nikkei 225 futures to close at 37,440 yen, down 2,410 yen from the previous day's closing price.
In the US stock market, The major 3 indices have achieved a 3-week consecutive increase.At one point, Breaking the curse of 'September, the month of hardship'.The Dow Jones Average recorded a triple-digit increase over the weekend and ended the week.reached a new all-time high,The S&P500 index also achieved the 42nd record high on the 26th, following a series of bright economic indicators.Nasdaq Composite Index also maintains its momentum.Achieving the 42nd record high on the 26th following a series of bright economic indicators. $Micron Technology (MU.US)$Following the surge after the earnings announcement of $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Supported by the rise, it showed a favorable movement. Specifically, the S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose approximately last week.0.6% this week.. The Nasdaq Composite Index experienced a nearly 1% increase.One of the main factors supporting the US stock market is reached a record high.
positive economic data.positive economic dataThat.Last week's Economic data is generally positive for the stock market.The PCE data released on the 27th supports the smooth progress towards the FRB's target of 2.0%, with unemployment insurance claims continuing to fall below expectations and GDP forecasts indicating a healthy economy. These factors are strengthening confidence in achieving a 'soft landing'.They are increasingly confident that they can achieve a 'soft landing'.。
-PCE Price Index: The month-on-month comprehensive index increased by 0.1% as expected, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, the lowest rate of increase since February 2021. Core PCE fell below expectations with a 0.1% increase from the previous month compared to the expected 0.2% increase, aligning with market expectations at 2.7%.
-S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI: It dropped from 54.6 the previous month to a 2-month low of 54.4. The services PMI decreased to 55.4 from 55.7, reaching a 2-month low, while the manufacturing PMI also dropped to a 15-month low of 47.0 from 47.9 in the previous month.
-Consumer Confidence Index: It decreased by 6.9 points from August to 98.7, significantly below the expected 104.0. This value of 98.7 marks a 3-year low, with the largest monthly decline since August 2021.
GDP final value: 3.0%, slightly exceeding the expected 2.9%.
New jobless claims: The number of initial claims reached a 4-month low of 0.218 million, falling below the expected 0.225 million. The number of continuing unemployment claims was 1.834 million, lower than the expected 1.838 million, but increased from the previous week's 1.829 million.
The market still seems to expect a significant rate cut compared to the median forecast shown in the dot plot by the FRB. Currently, there is an expectation for an additional rate cut of 75bp this year, compared to the 50bp forecasted by the FRB.An additional rate cut of 75bp is expected to be implemented this year.There is an expectation for an additional rate cut of 75bp to occur this year.
Other reasons for last week's rise include A series of economic stimulus measures introduced by the Chinese government towards achieving end-of-year growth targetsthere is a possibility that the United States may benefit from China's stimulus measures last weekMaterialsやIndustrial productsIndustries such as materials are performing well. Furthermore, amidst increasing expectations for Chinese demand,Luxury goods stocksAlso plummetedIt has become the most promising week in recent years。
When it comes to technology stocks, last week's big news was undoubtedly $Micron Technology (MU.US)$'s earnings, which led to a surge in semiconductor stocks including NVIDIA. However, amidst the bullish sentiment, Bloomberg reported that Chinese authorities are urging domestic companies to avoid buying NVIDIA's chips and instead use products from domestic suppliers like Huawei. In response to this, $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$stock plunged by 2.1% on the 27th and experienced a significant drop of 4.7%. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Nasdaqsemiconductor stocksAt one point, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$isVroomIt became so. Still, TSMC last week.risen by about 4%, while NVIDIA alsorose by 4.7%. According to FactSet data, the correlation between NVIDIA and the S&P500 index in the current quarter isapproximately 86%。
In addition, $Palantir (PLTR.US)$Downgraded by Raymond James, received the comment that "growth matching the high evaluation is necessary." $Intel (INTC.US)$Also attracted attention, received a investment proposal of up to 5 billion dollars from Apollo Global Management (APO). $Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$Also reported as a potential acquisition candidate. On the other hand, $Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$Also approached Intel for the acquisition of the product division, but was rejected by Intel as "not for sale".
Source: FactSet, MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Yahoo Finance, Schwab
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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さすらいのライダー : Oh no. It might not just be tomorrow, but next week could be very stormy. This year's market is really chaotic.
182712675 : Breaking through the barrier of 0.04 million 2000 yen, future goals of 0.05 million and 0.06 million are also becoming visible! In the future, it will be more advantageous to buy TOPIX and index etf products.