Next week's earnings and economic calendar (11/11~11/15) will focus on the US CPI! How long will the US stock market, buzzing with the 'Trump whirlwind,' continue?
The Tokyo stock market next week is expected to see fluctuation. After passing through important events such as the US presidential election and the US FOMC, proactive movements are likely to be limited in the absence of significant catalysts. However, next week...Earnings reports from about 1400 companies will be announced.is scheduled, especially $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$and $SoftBank Group (9984.JP)$、 $Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP)$such as earnings reports are attracting market attention. $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$Tokyo Electron, which handles manufacturing equipment for the previous process like Nvidia, is drawing attention as a touchstone for the future of semiconductor stocks. In the market, there are voices saying, 'Amid concerns of slowing demand from China, attention is focused on whether they can maintain double-digit growth.'
Major Japanese bank stocks such as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, and Mizuho Financial Group have been supporting the rise of Japanese stocks since the beginning of the year.whichhas been supporting the rise of Japanese stocks since the beginning of the year, soThe earnings reports of the three major banks may further boost the overall stock market.There is.
The U.S. stock market is also expected to continue its strong performance. With the three key U.S. indices hitting all-time highs, investor expectations are rising. Following Trump's election victory, Scott Rubner, an expert at Goldman Sachs, stated thatThe year-end rally for the U.S. stocks will begin on November 6th.and anticipates a spread of FOMO sentiment among institutional investors. According to Rubner, the average return of the S&P500 from November 5th in the election year to December 31st has beensince 1928.3.38%.
Next week,米消費者物価指数（CPI）YesProducer Price Index (PPI)、US retail revenueImportant economic indicators such as these are scheduled to be released. Particularly, with Mr. Trump's victory,Inflation pressures are increasingAs the pressure for rising interest rates increases,There is a possibility that attention will focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the future.Furthermore, with the FOMC's decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% this week, the market is watching closely to see how the expectations for further rate cuts will change in response to the results of the US CPI. In addition, major companies such as earnings reports. $Cisco (CSCO.US)$and $Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$、 $Disney (DIS.US)$、 $Home Depot (HD.US)$will announce their earnings.
In the foreign exchange market next week, it is expected that the USD/JPY will show a strong performance. There is a possibility of continued strength in the US dollar due to inflation expectations from the potential return of former President Trump. However, due to the cautiousness towards yen-buying intervention by Japanese monetary authorities, it may not be easy to actively sell the yen. Depending on the results of next week's US CPI and PPI, there is a possibility that the USD/JPY could move significantly.
1. The Nikkei average continues to rise for the second week, with a four-digit increase expected in the Trump rally.
2. The arrival of "Trump 2.0" brings a wind of change to the world! The stock market is boiling.
3. FRB lowers rates as expected, maintaining a hawkish stance.
4. Bitcoin reaches $0.076000 due to the benefits of the Trump administration.
5. NVIDIA advances to become the world's largest company! Surpassing Apple's growth trajectory.
6. Super Micro at risk of delisting from the S&P500! Concerns over sharp drop in stock price and delisting.
This week, with the overwhelming victory of former U.S. President Trump, he returned to the White House, not only in the United States but in various industries around the world.、「大きな変化がやってくる」という雰囲気が漂い始めている。今週の東京株式市場で日経平均は前週末比1446.7円(3.8％)高の0.03 million9500.37円と、2週連続で上昇。米国株式市場では、トランプ次期大統領の勝利を受けて、水曜日から上昇し続いている。一方、米FRBは市場の予想通りに0.25ポイントの利下げを行い、パウエルFRB議長は記者会見で、「経済のパフォーマンスが良い」と述べた。しかし、アナリストは「選挙前の1週間と比べて、FRBの利下げの見通しはより不透明になっている」と見ている。
トランプ氏の大統領選勝利にウォール街が好反応を示した。
特に水曜日、The stock market has experienced a significant surge across the board.As stock prices were already trading at record highs,Numerous significant milestones were achieved.The Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes recorded substantial increases since November 2022. The Nasdaq Composite saw a significant rise since February this year. The Russell 2000 recorded a significant increase since November 2023. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$、 $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$、 $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$Bank stocks, among others,recorded the largest increases among S&P companies with a market capitalization of over 100 billion dollars.The stock prices of each company,rose by at least 11%.Among the hot stocks that reached an all-time high, Goldman and $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$が含まれる。
are one of the significant beneficiaries of the Trump victory. $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$this week,exceeded $0.07 million6000, hitting an all-time high, and Bitcoinreached an all-time high.Excluding Meta, it has become the 9th largest asset in the world by market capitalization.In the market, Mr. Trump aims to make the USA a 'bitcoin superpower' and is implementing regulatory easing to promote the development of the cryptocurrency industry.Mr. Trump's second term would be more favorable for the cryptocurrency industry.It is considered.
In response to that,US bonds were sold off rapidly, and the 30-year Treasury bond yields recorded the largest increase in the past two years. This is because traders have factored in the trade and fiscal deficit policies of Mr. Trump's second term.The price of gold also fell this week.In the market, Mr. Trump aims to make the USA a 'bitcoin superpower' and is implementing regulatory easing to promote the development of the cryptocurrency industry.した。シティは、米大統領選後、金は短期的には圧力に直面するかもしれないが、金の構造的な強気相場はまだ強固であり、Buy on dips.を勧めており、そして今後6ヶ月で1オンスあたり3000ドルに達すると予想している。一方、アナリストは金の長期的な最大のリスクはＡＩであるThe United States is believed to be able to successfully reconstruct the industry through AI, significantly improve total factor productivity, alleviate the pressures of inflation and fiscal deficits, and strengthen the credibility of the US dollar, which could lead to the potential end of the bullish gold market, similar to the end of the 1990s information technology revolution.
This week, the FRB implemented an expected interest rate cut but announced a hawkish stance.
In this meeting statement, it was reaffirmed that the risks of employment and inflation are generally balanced,and the phrase "more convinced that inflation will sustainably head towards 2%" was removed,and a new assessment that the labor market conditions have eased was added. According to analysts,they do not rule out the possibility of halting the rate cuts in December.There is a possibility that the outcome indicates the potential for additional volatility in the future of rate cuts. Wall Street major banks pointed out that the outcome of this week's election could significantly influence the pace and magnitude of future rate cuts.
JP Morgan warned that the Federal Reserve may stop its easing cycle as early as December. The policies of the Trump administration could increase the fiscal deficit, prompting an increase in inflation that may lead the FRB to temporarily halt rate cuts.
About hot stocks
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ vroom has become the world's largest company this week, $Apple (AAPL.US)$overtaking sumitomo mitsui financial. This week, vroom became the world's largest company.On Friday this week, nvidia replaced dow inc. unsponsored adr as a component stock of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which pushed up nvidia's stock price. $Intel (INTC.US)$On the other hand, apple's stock price suffered a blow as Berkshire Hathaway, one of its major shareholders led by Warren Buffett, announced a massive sell-off of apple shares. $Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$
According to FactSet data,Apple's financial performance still significantly surpasses NVIDIA.The expected revenue is $397 billion, with a net profit of $98 billion, which far exceeds NVIDIA's revenue of $120 billion and net profit of $64 billion. However, analysts expect NVIDIA's growth trajectory to continue. They anticipate a forecasted net profit of $122 billion in 2026, approaching Apple's $124 billion.growth trajectory to continueand are expected to approach $122 billion in forecasted net profit for 2026, close to Apple's $124 billion.
$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$The first quarter earnings report released on the 5th was disappointing, causing the stock price to plummet over 78% since reaching an all-time high in March.over 78% sharp declineInvestors fear that the company may be delisted from NASDAQ and removed from the S&P500 index components.delisted from NASDAQ and removed from the S&P500 index componentsand beginning to have concerns.
Jin Ho from Bloomberg mentioned that if SMCI is delisted from the Nasdaq, there is a possibility of being excluded from the S&P500 index, which would force fund management companies to sell the SMCI shares they hold. Currently, about 24% of SMCI shares are held by passive funds, and 8% are held by funds related to the S&P500.
This stock hasbeen downgraded in target stock prices by multiple investment banks. JP Morgan downgraded the rating to 'underweight', while Mizuho Securities temporarily suspended the rating due to insufficient financial information.
In other hot stocks earnings reports,the recovery in the smartphone market is good, and the revenue for the previous quarter increased by over 30%, with guidance for the current quarter $Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$greatly exceeded expectationsOn the other hand, the semiconductor design $Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$also announced its earnings for the July-September quarter, both surpassing profit per share and revenue estimates, but its guidance indicated lower-than-expected revenue forecast for the October-December period. It suggested the possibility that the recovery in the smartphone market could cast a shadow on the growth of AI.
Source: MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Yahoo Finance, Schwab
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