NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 149.430 FUBO
FuboTV
-- 5.060 TSLA
Tesla
-- 411.050 MU
Micron Technology
-- 99.260 AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
-- 129.550 
This week's earnings and economic calendar (12/2~12/6) focuses on US employment statistics and remarks by Chairman Powell! As we enter December trading, we explore the possibility of a Christmas rally.
The Tokyo stock market is expected to experience unstable movements this week. In the United States...statisticssuch asoverseas economy-sensitive industriesis strengthening. In addition, as the yen strengthens, it could pose headwinds for Japanese export companies. On the other hand, for sectors like finance and other domestic demand-related stocksDomestic demand related stocksmay be attracting attention as a support for the market.
In the US stock market, expectations are rising for the Christmas rally, while ahead of the December FOMC meeting,become factors influencing the movement of the dollar. If these indicators fall below expectations, the risk of a weak dollar and a strong yen is likely to increase. In particular,andComments from President-elect TrumpIt may determine the market's direction. In particular, there is a possibility that the rate cut may be postponed at the December FOMC meeting. Therefore, this week's employment statistics are drawing significant attention. According to market expectations, the non-farm payroll employment is expected to increase by 0.2 million from the previous month, significantly surpassing the 0.012 million increase in October. Other key indicators include the US November ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing Index, and the US November ADP Employment Statistics.There are numerous highly anticipated economic indicators being released.。
In addition, attention needs to be paid to Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve.Statement by FRB Senior OfficialIt is necessary to pay attention to. The focus is on how the statements before entering the blackout period will impact the market. There is a view in the market that if the statements align with a dovish tone regarding the prospect of a rate cut next year, the market will react again with a depreciation of the yen and a rise in the stock market.The focus is on the Chairman of the Federal Reserve's statementand if there are no major changes in the US employment statistics, a rate cut is expected at the December FOMC meeting.On the other hand, next weekif there are no significant changes in Chairman Powell's statements or the US employment statistics, a rate cut is expected at the December FOMC meeting.
On the other hand, this week isEntering the last month of the year.At JP Morgan Securities, starting this week in the US stock marketIt is expected that the Christmas rally will be explored.It is expected that in the US stock market, as usual, based on the clues of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, there is a tendency for investors to prefer buying sensitive and cyclical stocks in December.
JP Morgan is focusing on the increasing trend of speculative long positions in stock index futures and the low position of the VIX (fear index). They believe that the overall risk appetite of investors is relatively strong and they expect anticipation for the Christmas rally this year to increase. However, they point out that investors' heavy positions in US stocks may make excessive chasing of higher prices less likely.
This week's USD/JPY exchange rate is expected to continue its volatile movements amidst expectations of a rate cut in the US and speculations of a rate hike in Japan. Market participants are closely watching events such as US employment statistics, statements from the incoming President Trump, and the situation in Ukraine.geopolitical risksMarket participants are expected to react sensitively to developments, including US employment statistics, statements from the incoming President Trump, and the situation in Ukraine, and furthermore...Year-end and New Year's holdings adjustmentandRethinking investment strategiesMany factors such as these are overlapping, increasing uncertainty, and these areFactors that increase volatilityit will be.
1. The Nikkei average fell for the third consecutive week, cautioning Trump's remarks.
2. Dow and S&P 500 achieve the highest monthly performance of the year with record highs updated.
3. Quantum's brightness shines on the market, with related stocks soaring.
4. Shift of focus in AI market, diminishing presence of NVIDIA – shift in investment towards 'software' and others.
5. Bitcoin accumulates strength, aiming once again at $0.1 million.
6. Trump's hammer, the storm of tariffs is raging - what is the impact on the US economy?
7. US core PCE price accelerates year-on-year growth, supporting the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve.
Last week in the Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei average fell for the third consecutive week, down 75.82 yen (0.2%) from the previous week to 28,820.03 yen. After the Trump rally, this timeNegative aspects of the Trump administration's arrival (tariffs)The situation is becoming negative, especially focusing on export-related stocks. Also, due to intermittent dollar selling and yen buying background on expectations of additional US rate cuts, it fell below 150 yen for the first time in about a week.The consumer price index (CPI) for central Tokyo was stronger than market expectations, also weighing on the dollar and yen.In the US market, the three major indices are expected to end the week with gains. This week, the market will close the November market.
Last week, the market closed out the November market. In the USA market, Dow Inc and S&P500 index recorded record highs at the close.It became the highest month since November 2023.Nasdaq rose weekly and monthly, and the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks also increased.Recording the highest month of the year.I did.Quantum computingNovember.showed an astonishing rise.。 $Quantum (QMCO.US)$are 3 times、 $Quantum Computing (QUBT.US)$are Increased by five times.was recorded. Also, $Arqit Quantum (ARQQ.US)$、 $D-Wave Quantum (QBTS.US)$、 $IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$allDoubled.IonQ predicts that the quantum computing market will grow to $65 billion by 2030 and reach $850 billion by 2040.
Transactions related to AI that are changing the situation.
On the other hand,In transactions related to artificial intelligence (AI), the situation seems to be changing、 $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$it seems that Nvidia is no longer the focus after the earnings announcement until the 28th.Approximately 8% decline.BofA sees the market shifting its focus to the second stage of AI-related stocks, namelysoftware stocks and Agentic AI. In the midst of the arrival of the 'AI era' in software, its monetization is expected to begin in 2025.Goldman Sachs categorizes it as.AI相場を4段階According to the bank, over the past two years, the market has been focusing on 'first-stage' stocks such as Nvidia. Gradually, there has been interest in 'second-stage' AI stocks of companies focusing on AI infrastructure.OvervaluedIt is pointed out that investors will accumulate more power from AI infrastructure to a broader extent by 2025.AI「第3段階」アプリケーションの推進と収益化に移行するand financial estimates.
Bitcoin
Since the US presidential election, it has been under intense scrutiny $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ WhileA $0.1 million barrierAfter facing を, last week.0.091 million dollars temporarily interrupted. Subsequently, it recovered to around 0.097 million dollars. According to analysts, before bitcoin breaks through 0.1 million dollars,it seems necessary to build up strength.. For investors who have been holding bitcoin at the 0.1 million dollar level,Psychological selling point it will be a key point. Holders are expected to anticipate a decline in this price range and are likely to sell part of their holdings to lock in profits.
Trump risk
On the other hand, after the Trump rally has passed, last week It became a development that factors in the negative aspects of the Trump administration.incorporated the development. Last week, Mr. Trump indicated his intention to impose a 25% tariff on all products imported into the United States from Mexico and Canada, causing a decline in the stock prices of many auto manufacturers. Having auto factories in Mexico $Nissan Motor (7201.JP)$and $Honda Motor (7267.JP)$Is $Ford Motor (F.US)$、 $General Motors (GM.US)$、 $Stellantis NV (STLA.US)$...along with [auto manufacturer redacted] that has automobile factories in Mexico.
What will President Trump's tariff threat mean for the US economy? Goldman Sachs predicts that President Trump's tariff policy would generate approximately300 billion dollarsin income each year, while worsening inflation and affecting the US core PCE. 、Personal Consumption Expenditures Index.をStated that it will push up by 0.9%.According to data from Yale University's Budget Research Institute, Trump's tariff policy and the retaliatory tariffs associated with it, the US CPI inflation rate will increase by 0.75 points as.Automobile manufacturers that rely on imports may be severely affected, and according to analysis, the earnings per share of General Motors and Stellantis could decrease by 50% and Ford25％減少This growth is expected to continue.
一方、EVの米 $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$The stock price of the company last week, the company $Tesla (TSLA.US)$との和解で大幅に上昇したTesla announced that it has reached a 'conditional' settlement in the 2020 lawsuit where Rivian allegedly poached employees and stole electric vehicle trade secrets. Despite last week's rise, RIVN continues to record a 50% decline year-to-date. In other hot stocks news, quarterly revenue fell below expectations against the backdrop of weak demand for computers. $Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$The stock price of It dropped more than 13% last week.Among the same industry, $HP Inc (HPQ.US)$Also declined after earnings announcement,A decline of over 11%is being recorded.
Last week's economic indicators for the USA.
Regarding US economic indicators, which were released last week.Minutes from the US Federal Reserve's meetingAccording to financial estimates, many memberssupport a "modest" interest rate cutand some authorities suggested the possibility of a temporary halt to the rate cut.
Due to uncertainty about the neutral interest rate level, the number of authorities considering gradual rate cuts as appropriate changed from "some" to "many". Nearly all officials believe that risks to employment and inflation are broadly balanced, and some judged that risks of economic activity and labor market downside have decreased. Furthermore, since the September meeting, many have pointed out a reduced risk of excessive cooling in the labor market.
Following the FOMC minutes, the FRB signaled the possibility of an additional rate cut at the December meeting.The view expanded that the Fed would cut rates further after the FOMC minutes.。
In October, the leading indicator of the housing market in the USA, new home sales, recorded a significant decrease of more than 17% compared to the previous month, marking a substantial decline since July 2013. Hurricanes "Helen" and "Milton" hit certain regions in the southeast of the USA, resulting in delays in sales in the largest real estate region in the country.
The US core PCE price index for October, which is an inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) emphasizes, rose by 2.8% year-on-year. The increase in service prices pushed up inflation in October, resulting in a 0.4% increase. Personal income in October significantly exceeded expectations. This PCE data supports the FRB's cautious stance on the next interest rate cut. The market still expects the FRB to implement a rate cut in December.
The real GDP in the United States for the third quarter grew by 2.8% on an annualized basis compared to the previous quarter, maintaining the same level as the preliminary figure, while the PCE price index was revised downward to 2.1%. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 3.5%, the largest increase this year.
The number of initial jobless claims was 0.213 million, lower than the expected 0.215 million, and remained at the same level as the previous period. The number of continuing claimants increased by 9,000 to 1.907 million (seasonally adjusted), slightly below the expected 1.908 million, reaching the highest level since November 2021. It was suggested that many unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to rejoin the workforce.
Durable goods orders in October reversed a two-month decline, increasing by 0.2% compared to the previous month. However, it fell short of the expected 0.5%, indicating that the recovery of the manufacturing sector remains challenging.
Source: MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Yahoo Finance, Schwab
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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