This week's earnings and economic calendar (1/6~1/10) focuses on the US employment statistics and the world's largest tech event! Will AI-related stocks show signs of prosperity again?

moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Jan 3 21:04

Key points for this week
Japanese stocks this week, the new year's trading starts on January 6 (Monday), with a full 5 business days from the first week. There are several highly anticipated earnings reports from companies primarily in the retail sector. $Fast Retailing (9983.JP)$や $Seven & i Holdings (3382.JP)$On the 9th, they will release their earnings reports, which could potentially impact the overall industry trends.

In the domestic market, the focus will be on the release of the November Economic Trends Index on January 10th. On the other hand, in the overseas market, attention is on the December ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index andADP Employment Report、the minutes from the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), held in December, are drawing attention, particularly the December 10thUS December Employment Statistics are expected to be a crucial indicator that will influence the market's direction. Speculation is growing about assessing the US economy and labor market trends from these indicators, and determining the direction of monetary policy by the Fed. If there is a rapid depreciation of the yen, there may be interest in movements related to intervention by Japan's currency authorities.US December Employment Statisticsis expected to be an important indicator that will influence the market's direction. The speculation is spreading to determine the trends in the US economy and labor market from these indicators, and to anticipate the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If there is a rapid decline in the yen, there may be interest in movements related to intervention by Japan's currency authorities.

In the U.S. market, Wall Street is gearing up for the first full trading week of 2025 after the tumultuous year-end festivities. Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities, pointed out that this week's release of U.S. employment statistics and the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season could be major hurdles over the next few weeks. He stated, "In the short term, until these obstacles are cleared, we may not find a clear direction and expect an unstable development."

On the other hand,CES 2025, an industry event in the technology sector, will be held in Las Vegas from January 7th to 11th.One of the key points of interest is the AI semiconductor giant. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The keynote speech by CEO ,Mr. Jensun Huan's keynote speechis expected. Practical application of AI terminals is expected to be a major theme, with innovative products set to be announced one after another. In particular, major corporations such as $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$、 $Intel (INTC.US)$ 、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$Major companies such as innovating new products.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is expected to continue to hold a central position at CES in 2025, with this year's focus on groundbreaking advances in AI foundational technologies and the expansion of their application. Numerous technology companies are expected to announce innovative products utilizing AI in fields like smart hardware and smart mobility. In particular, a concentrated unveiling of "AI+" products such as AI mobile phones, AI Augmented Reality (AIAR), AI smart glasses, and Internet of Things with AI (IoT) are predicted to set off a new wave of innovation.

In addition, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the USA Nasdaq announced that they will be closed on January 9, 2025, which President Biden designated as a day of mourning following the death of Jimmy Carter. All stocks and options trading markets are affected.

This week's earnings and economic calendar (1/6~1/10) focuses on the US employment statistics and the world's largest tech event! Will AI-related stocks show si...

Last week's market points
Nikkei average declined, unable to maintain the 0.04 million yen level at the Daikangai meeting.
S&P 500 achieves the largest two-year increase in this century, but the Santa rally fizzles out.
In the first week of 2025, the major 3 indices in the US stock market fell.
Is the correction phase in the first half of S&P 500 a buying opportunity?
Tesla stock faces a challenge after a sharp rise, with annual sales decreasing for the first time in over 10 years.
Mixed performance in US economic indicators.

Last week's Tokyo market, the opening session only one business day on Monday, the 30th of the monthIn the Tokyo stock market on the 30th, the Daikangai of 2024, the Nikkei average stock price fell by 386 yen from the previous trading day to 0.039894 million yen, landing in the 40,000 yen range on the last day of the year. The closing price at the end of last year was 33,464.17 yen, an annual Rising by 6430.37 yen (+19.2%)Reached an all-time high last week.

In the US market, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ がEnding 2024 with the fourth consecutive decline since 1966.The same index recorded a phenomenal increase of 23% annually.However, it showed a 2.5% decline in December.recorded a gain, but showed a 2.5% decline in December. Additionally, the traditional year-end stock price surge known as 'Santa Rally' failed to materialize. In the first week of 2025, the major three indexes experienced declines. Despite this, Wall Street strategists argue that this will not significantly alter their stance on 2025. Citigroup's Scott Chronert believes that...The 'Fundamentals' supporting the market's rise remain solid.and if the fundamentals are maintained,the adjustment phase in the first half of the S&P 500 is seen as a buying opportunitystated.

On the other hand, the S&P 500 has seen approximately a 53% increase over the past 2 years.achieved.In 2024, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$Next,rose by about 30%and many quantum computer-related stocksshowed a significant increase of over 1,400%.In terms of constituent stocks,

recorded an astonishing increase rate of 713% as a constituent stock of the Nasdaq 100 index, attracting attention in the market. $Applovin (APP.US)$Recording an astonishing increase rate of 713%, attracting attention in the market. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Significantly exceeded the 171% growth rate.

Among the S&P 500 constituents, the largest winner was $Palantir (PLTR.US)$recording an increase of approximately 350%. On the other hand, the biggest loser was $Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA.US)$experiencing a 61% decline.

Among the Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents, the biggest winner was $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$with a 171% increase. On the other hand, the worst performing constituent in 2024 was $Boeing (BA.US)$So, the stock price dropped by 32%. Over the past week, it has been a situation that can truly be called a 'black week' for the global airline industry. Including South Korea's largest-ever aviation accident, many of the aircraft involved in accidents were Boeing 737-800 aircraft, and Boeing's stock price temporarily dropped by nearly 6% on Monday.

About hot stocks

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$As a growth area, it focuses on Jetson Thor, the 'brain' of humanoid robots, and plans to announce it in the first half of 2025.According to analysts, NVIDIA plans to provide OEM solutions to 'thousands' of robot makers worldwide, rather than directly competing with manufacturers like Tesla.The annual sales volume decreased for the first time in over 10 years. While the number of customer deliveries in the fourth quarter hit a record high, it fell below market expectations, leading to a more than 6% drop in the stock price on Thursday.

It is a company specializing in in-car AI voice technology. $Cerence (CRNC.US)$Cerence's stock price rose significantly on Friday.Showing a surge of 143%.Cerence announced its aim to strengthen its collaboration with NVIDIA to enhance the performance of language models in automotive systems.

On the other hand, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$The annual sales volumedecreased for the first time in over 10 years.The stock price on Thursday fell by more than 6% despite recording the highest number of customer deliveries in the fourth quarter, which fell below market expectations.over 6% on Thursday.した。その後、中国での販売台数が2024年に過去最高を記録すると発表し、株価は金曜日８％反発した。それにもかかわらず、2024年の年間自動車納車台数は、アナリストの予想を下回っただけでなく、10年来初の年間販売台数の減少となった。月末に発表される決算でThe focus is on whether the annual growth target of 20-30% will be reconfirmed.。

Regarding economic Indicators

Last week, despite the short trading days due to the holiday, various economic indicators were released in the market. The content was described as "mixed". In the housing market, while the number of mortgage applications was sluggish, the number of pending home sales was strong. The US manufacturing sector showed weakness in the Chicago area, but according to ISM, it was robust. Although initial jobless claims reached a 7-month low, the GDP forecast by the Atlanta Fed was significantly revised downwards.

・The December Chicago PMI in the USA unexpectedly plummeted to 36.9, approaching the low levels during the pandemic. It significantly fell below the expected 43, and also dropped from the previous value of 40.2 in November.
・The November Existing Home Sales Contract Index recorded the highest level since the beginning of 2023, showing a month-on-month increase for 4 consecutive months.
The number of housing loan applications decreased by 21.9% in the past two weeks due to the rise in housing loan interest rates, but increased by 10% compared to the previous year.
- The number of initial jobless claims in the United States decreased to 0.211 million without an increase, marking a low level for the first time in 8 months. In addition, the number of continuing claimants for the week ending December 21 also decreased to a low level of 1.84 million people for the first time in 3 months.
・The final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in the USA for December decreased slightly to 49.4, surpassing the expected 48.3 and the preliminary figure of 48.3, but decreased from 49.7 in November. Economists noted that concerns about rising input prices and the uncertainty about the possibility of inflation rising again weakened the optimistic view of December. As a result, speculation is growing that the rate cut in 2025 may not be cut as significantly as previously expected.
In December, the ISM Manufacturing PMI was 49.3, exceeding the market estimate of 48.2. It was 48.4 in November.
The GDPNow 'NowCast' for the fourth quarter announced by the Atlanta Fed was revised downwards from 3.1% on December 24 to 2.6%.

Source: MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Yahoo Finance, Schwab

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