Focus on TSMC's "black horse"! 7 domestic semiconductor stocks! Nvidia hits record high, "AI demand is real"

「AI demand is real.」― $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Management spoke forcefully at the earnings call on the 17th. USA $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The company, which outsources the production of image processing semiconductors (GPUs), announced its earnings for the July-September period of the fiscal year 24.Sales and net profits both hit record highs due to strong demand for AI semiconductors.The strength of AI demand was reaffirmed in the market, and Nvidia's stock price reached a new high for the first time in about 4 months on the same day.However, on the following day, the 18th, some TSMC-related stocks showed positive movements in the Tokyo stock market.It was done.

On the other hand, in the Tokyo stock market on the following day, the 18th, some TSMC-related stocks showed positive movements, while a major manufacturing equipment company in the Netherlands did not participate in the positive trend. $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$Regarding etcEarnings below expectationsand, Concerns about US export restrictions on china persist, and many related stocks had a subdued response.At the end of this month, during the earnings announcements of major US tech companies such as

the uncertainty surrounding AI demand is further dissipated $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$upon this month-end earnings call by major US tech companiesis steadfast, with many related stocks showing a weak response.If so, there is a possibility of putting an end to the domestic semiconductor stock price adjustment by teaming up with nvidia and TSMC supplier.Black horse stockAmong themStocks with a strong connection to AI, or those with expected stable performancewere picked up.

Who are the notable suppliers of TSMC?
- TSMC's supplier $Disco (6146.JP)$(TSMC's sales account for 7.7% of total revenue) on the 17thAnnounced second-quarter earnings that exceeded market expectations.the main reason for the 18th temporarily surpassed the previous day.Rise by 9%.Excluding Disco, $RORZE (6323.JP)$、 $Shibaura Mechatronics (6590.JP)$、 $Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (4186.JP)$、 $RS Technologies (3445.JP)$、 $Taikisha (1979.JP)$Various factors have risen.

● $Disco (6146.JP)$、 $RORZE (6323.JP)$Although the performance is solid, there has been a significant drop from the July peak.China has high revenue.As a result, the recovery is taking time. Both are high ROE (considered to have high self-capital profit margin and good capital efficiency) stocks, and the long-term trend (200-day moving average) is maintaining an upward trend.Maintaining an upward trend.I am doing.

● $Shibaura Mechatronics (6590.JP)$YTD, rose by 73.57%, hitting a new all-time high on the 18th since its listing.Advanced product packaging is performing well.

● The price movement indicates a strong uptrend known as a perfect order (current price is the highest, with short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends in ascending order), making it suitable for trend-following investments, and the stock is in a strong uptrend known as a perfect order (current price is highest, with short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends all pointing upward), making it suitable for trend-following investments. $Shibaura Mechatronics (6590.JP)$and $RS Technologies (3445.JP)$There is strong demand for AI advanced product testers. $Advantest (6857.JP)$Although there was a decline on the 18th, it has been nearly a perfect order recently, maintaining a solid movement.

Handling ultrapure water for semiconductors, $Organo (6368.JP)$and clean rooms, $Taikisha (1979.JP)$both stock prices are currently adjusting, but as the long-term line (200-day moving average) is upward and steadily raising the downside, considering a buy seems possible.

● $Lasertec (6920.JP)$the revenue level is second only to TSMC, $Intel (INTC.US)$and the revenue to Intel is significant, with concerns from analysts over the decrease in investment interest in Intel, which has a large proportion of legacy semiconductors.

◆ $Disco (6146.JP)$
The world's leading supplier of cutting, grinding, and polishing equipment for semiconductors and electronic components. The consolidated revenue for the current second quarter announced on the 17th is,Rapid expansion in shipments for semiconductors.compared to the same period last yearan increase of 41.8% to 179 billion yen,Net profit increased by 63.4%63.4% increase.の53.4 billion円と二桁の大幅増収増益だった。引き続き生成AI関連の需要が継続するとみており、25年3月期第３四半期売上高は前年同期比29.3％増の262.9 billion円、純利益は52.1％増の74.2 billion円を見込む。好業績だが、18日終値は7月11日高値から約45％安の水準。

半導体ウエハーやガラス基板の搬送装置を製造。販売先はTSMCや米 $Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$。中国政府の半導体自給率向上に向けた動きに伴い、現地の製造装置向けが伸びている。10月11日に発表した今期中間決算では、連結売上高が前年同期比An increase of 46.9%reached 60.2 billion yen, with net profitincreased by 61.2%, reaching 15.8 billion yen. Consolidated sales for the fiscal year ending in February 2025 are expected to increase by 29.5% to 120.7 billion yen, with a net profit increase of 17.1%, totaling 22.9 billion yen. It will surpass the previous record-high net profit of 21.3 billion yen in the fiscal year ending in February 2023. Despite the strong performance, the closing price on the 18th remains 45% lower from the high on July 9.a 29.5% increaseof 120.7 billion yen, with net profitexpected to be 22.9 billion yen, an increase of 17.1%. It will exceed the record high net profit of 21.3 billion yen in the fiscal year ending in February 2023. Although the performance is strong, the closing price on the 18th remains 45% below the high on July 9.increased by 17.1%to update the highest net profit to date (21.3 billion yen) in 23 fiscal year. It has a good performance, but the closing price on the 18th is at a level 45% lower than the high on July 9.

◆ $Shibaura Mechatronics (6590.JP)$
A semiconductor manufacturing equipment manufacturer. Leading in the world with batch-type wafer cleaning equipment. Strong performance for logic units in the previous process aimed at China. The advanced packaging equipment in the subsequent process is exceeding expectations due to increased demand for AI GPUs. Consolidated revenue for the fiscal year ending March 2025 increased by 8.1%to 73 billion yen, with a net profit increase of 0.1%to 8.8 billion yen.Year-to-date, it has risen by 73.57%, and on the 18th, it reached a new all-time high since listing.。

◆ $Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (4186.JP)$
The material photoresist used in semiconductor manufacturing processes is world-class. Demand for advanced logic and DRAM is rapidly increasing. Demand for downstream processes is also rising. The sales for the fiscal year ending in December 2025 will also.AI semiconductors are driving expansion.24 fiscal year consolidated revenue is 193.4 billion yen, up 19.2% from the previous period.Increase of 19.2%.Net profit increased by 55.8%.Increased by 55.8%.Expecting a revenue of 19.8 billion yen. Due to the stock price decline, JP Morgan raised its investment rating from 'Neutral' to 'Overweight' on October 4, and raised the target stock price from 4200 yen to 4400 yen.

◆ $RS Technologies (3445.JP)$
Used for adjustment and testing of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Holding a global 33% market share of regenerated wafers, ranking first in the world.Since semiconductors are prone to defects, a large amount of test reclaim wafers is required for production line verification. The demand for reclaim wafers increases as customer cost consciousness increases, making it less susceptible to economic fluctuations and the semiconductor market. The company collects used wafers from semiconductor manufacturers and regenerates them for use as test wafers. The demand for reclaim wafers is thriving and operating at full capacity. The main customers are Kioxia, $Sony Group (6758.JP)$、 $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$The market capitalization is around 100 billion yen, but the value of the stake in the subsidiary GRITEK listed on the Shanghai market isThe company has also entered the business of rechargeable batteries (vanadium redox flow batteries) for wind power and photovoltaic power generation. The forecasted consolidated net sales for the fiscal year ending in December 2024 is 54.9 billion yen, an increase of 5.8% compared to the previous year. The forecasted operating profit is 14 billion yen, an increase of 17.7%. The forecasted net profit is 7.6 billion yen, a decrease of 1.3%. The upside potential from the closing price on the 2nd to the analyst target price is 72.4%.もある（決算説明会で同社）という。24年12月期連結売上高は前期比5.8％増の54.9 billion円、純利益は1.3％減の7.6 billion円を見込む。

東ソー系。半導体や電力向け純粋製造装置を手掛ける。半導体向け超純水装置の維持管理事業が好採算で好調。25年3月期連結売上高はAn increase of 6.4% compared to the previous period.They expect a net profit of 176 billion yen.An increase of 1.7%.They anticipate a profit of 17.6 billion yen. Domestic securities on September 20, stated that there is a lack of undervaluation in stock prices and reduced the target stock price from 7750 yen to 7650 yen. They predict that the market size of ultrapure water manufacturing equipment for the electronics industry will expand, and determine that the medium to long-term growth prospects remain unchanged.They determined that the medium to long-term growth prospects remain unchanged.Consolidated revenue for the fiscal year ending March 25 is expected to increase by 6.4% to 160 billion yen, with a 1.7% increase in net profit.An increase of 6.4% compared to the previous period.They expect a net profit of 176 billion yen.An increase of 1.7%.Expecting 17.6 billion yen.

◆ $Taikisha (1979.JP)$
Responsible for construction of clean rooms and production exhaust treatment facilities in TSMC's Kumamoto plant (Kikuyo-cho). They have strengths in industrial air conditioning, with a track record in Taiwan since the 1930s. In the 90s, they undertook the design and construction of large clean rooms for semiconductor plants, including non-Japanese customers. The first quarter saw a decrease in operating profit due to a decrease in recoil, but it remains in line with the initial plan. Domestic analysts consider this not a particularly negative factor.Recoil decrease.resulted in a decline in operating income, in line with the initial plan.As planned at the beginning of the period.Domestic analysts say this is not a particularly negative factor.Not a particularly negative material for the company.」とし、売上総利益率が15.5％（前年同期は14.7％）に上昇したことや、塗装システム事業が黒字転換したことを評価している。25年3月期連結売上高は前期比紀12.1％減の258 billion円、純利益は34.6％減の10.2 billion円を見込む。

TSMCサプライヤーの売上高に占めるTSMC売上比率と資金効率の高さを示す前期ROE（自己資本利益率）
Related stocks not mentioned in the article: $Fujimi (5384.JP)$、 $Japan Material (6055.JP)$、 $Screen Holdings (7735.JP)$、 $SUMCO (3436.JP)$