Outlook for the USA market: At midnight on the 28th, US PCE data will be released. Bitcoin rebounds, 'far from a bubble,' reaching $0.74 million = Pantera founder.

Good evening, Moomoo users!Tonight's analysis of NY stocks.

Market Overview
The USA market started with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which consists of high-quality stocks, down 22.56 dollars at 44837.75 dollars, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, with a high proportion of technology stocks, down 42.59 points at 19132.99. The S&P 500 Index, composed of 500 large-cap stocks in the USA, was down 7.52 points at 6014.11.

Top News
US stock futures fall before Thanksgiving, investors are watching key economic indicators ahead
●Ahead of Thanksgiving holiday, US stock futures fall. The latest data on inflation indicators, jobless claims, and economic growth rate, which the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) is focusing on, are scheduled to be released, and investors are keeping a close watch.
● French bond spreads widened. Prime Minister Varnier warned that if the budget proposal is rejected by the parliament leading to the collapse of the government, a 'storm' will hit the financial markets.
● Mr. Donald Trump appointed Kevin Hassett as Chairman of the National Economic Council (NEC), and Jameson Greer as US Trade Representative, filling important roles in the economic team.
● Ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah started in the early hours of Wednesday after negotiations mediated by the United States for weeks led to an agreement.
● Countries are considering measures to counter US tariffs. The President of Mexico warned of a serious economic impact, while the Canadian Finance Minister mentioned that the government responded in kind to Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum during his first term.

Tomorrow night, the US PCE will be released. Will the path of inflation easing remain 'tortuous'?
●Bank of America Securities (BofA) Economists: If Core PCE records a 0.3% month-on-month increase for the second consecutive month, there is a high possibility that it will prompt the FRB members to reevaluate inflation and policy outlook. Nevertheless, they still expect a 25 basis points rate cut in December, but considering that economic activity is robust and inflation remains elevated, the rate cut cycle is likely to be short-lived.
●Baron Magazine: The latest data on inflation indicators that the FRB focuses on indicates that the inflation rate stubbornly continues to exceed the FRB's annual target. The final stage of the FRB's inflation containment is likely to be a long battle. Over the past 6 months, the annual rate of Core PCE has generally been around 2.7%.
●Chief Economist, Russell Price, Ameriprise FinancialThe high reading in October is not seen as detrimental to long-term trends, pointing out the possibility of a temporary rise in the PCE inflation rate due to base effects. Compared to the low inflation rate in October 2023, this week's data may appear relatively strong.
●Chief Economist, Jeffrey Roach, LPL FinancialThe 'fall inflation setback' is considered a temporary phenomenon and not indicative of a trend change. He predicts that by early 2025, the annual rate of PCE inflation will reach levels that look 'very favorable'.
●Societe Generale (SG)Core PCE is expected to increase by 0.21% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, but this data is not seen to have a significant impact on the decision to lower interest rates at the December FOMC meeting.
●Netherlands-based international group (ING)Expecting a 0.3% increase in month-on-month core PCE. This level remains high, and the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) sees the need for weakness in next week's non-farm payrolls (NFP), along with the low performance of core CPI and PPI on December 11-12, to implement a 25 basis point rate cut in December.

Bitcoin rebounds, 'far from a bubble', reaching $0.74 million = Pantera founder
● Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital believes that the rise of Bitcoin has just begun and does not consider it a bubble. Looking back at the time when Pantera launched a Bitcoin fund in 2013, he recalls being told by many that they were "crazy". However, this fund has achieved an astonishing return of 132,118% to date. Morehead is optimistic about the future of Bitcoin, anticipating that regulatory changes under the Trump administration could provide tailwinds for cryptocurrencies, predicting that Bitcoin could reach $0.74 million.
● Pantera's first Bitcoin fund was launched when Bitcoin was only $74, but the current trading price has reached $92,000, recording a 120% increase in just this year. Morehead's new venture fund, Pantera Fund V, plans to take advantage of favorable conditions following the withdrawal of many generalist companies from the market due to industry-wide chaos, and is planning to invest in a wide range of blockchain assets.
● Furthermore, Morehead supports the idea of holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset for the United States, explaining that it is a superior store of value compared to gold. He views the proposed 'National Bitcoin Endowment' by Trump as a rational policy that would bring about a significant long-term improvement in asset value.

Mixed signals in the US job market, avoiding large-scale layoffs
●According to the data from the US Department of Labor, last week's initial jobless claims decreased, indicating that despite the cooling of the job market, the US economy has managed to avoid large-scale layoffs. However, the number of continued claims for unemployment benefits has reached its highest level in the past 3 years.
Since the beginning of this year, labor market data has shown a trend of mixed fortunes, making the Federal Reserve Board (FRB)'s interest rate decisions more complex as they balance employment and inflation goals.
- Currently in the US, there is approximately 1 job opening for every unemployed person, a decrease from the 2 openings around mid-2022. This year, the unemployment rate has slightly increased from 3.7% at the end of 2023 to over 4%. On the other hand, the US economy has created over 0.1 million jobs on average per month this year, and there is no significant increase in layoffs confirmed from the number of new initial jobless claims.

France, tariffs, aftermath of global elections.
●After the election year, the policies that will be implemented in the coming months as a result will shape the market trends.
In France, political conflicts over the budget have widened the yield spread between French and German government bonds to the highest level since 2012. Prime Minister Barnier is struggling to reduce the fiscal deficit.
In the United States, Donald Trump's presidential election victory has caused market turmoil, with auto manufacturers such as General Motors (GM) seeing their share prices fall due to new tariff concerns.
European auto manufacturers, especially companies reliant on production in Mexico, could face significant earnings impact if proposed tariffs are implemented.
On the other hand, analysts point out the possibility that these tariffs are not actual policies but merely negotiation tactics, drawing parallels to the situation observed during Trump's first term.

The stablecoin market is experiencing rapid growth
The total value of stablecoins has reached new heights, regaining the lost position after the collapse of Terra USD in 2022. According to the cryptocurrency data provider DeFiLlama, the market size has reached a record high of approximately $190 billion.
Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a price pegged to fiat currencies such as the US dollar. They have traditionally been used as a means of transferring funds to other tokens. However, there is growing expectation that stablecoins will play a more important role in international remittances and even global trade.